Latest gallop poll says romney is ahead 47% to 45%. indicates dead-heat

[still_one]

Women, minorities, labor, those on social security and medicare, and anyone who believes in civil rights, doesn't realize that these rights that were fought so hard during the last century is hanging on by a thread, then there will be a rude awaking for them and the country if they don't vote

[qanda]

1. Help us all if Romney becomes president...

Yuck!

[still_one]

2. I agree. I am absolutely astonded after the draconian policies the republican party has freely

confessed to that the poll numbers are this close

[CJCRANE]

3. CNN poll shows Obama ahead by 9 points

but that may be an outlier.

[Broderick]

5. I like that one

And it is registered voters. Sometimes polls use everyone, likely voters, or registered voters. I guess registered would be better in my opinion.

[former9thward]

18. Likely is always better.

It is what political campaigns look for. A certain percent of registered voters don't vote so the poll can be skewed for that reason.

[Broderick]

19. Ahhh...

Thanks. Didn't know that. Likely and registered would be best then.

[Mr.Turnip]

20. Not ALWAYS better, just usually.

Likely voter models rely on assumptions and past data, if those assumptions are wrong or if their is a large shift in the data that year they can be less accurate than registered.

[Mr.Turnip]

9. its differences in polling models and methodology.

Gallup is using a model similar to 2010 where Republicans and Dems were about equal and there was a larger number of republican leaning Indies, CNN is using a model more similar to 2008 I think assuming that Dems will beat the Republicans in turnout as they do in pretty much every Presidential year.

[SpencerShay]

10. CNN Poll...

A 9 point lead in the CNN poll may be a bit of an outlier, but I think President Obama is still ahead. This also from the CNN poll:


"Trying to be as objective as possible, who do you think will win in November?"

Obama 61% / Romney 35% (CNN/ORC Poll)

It's interesting that these numbers are similar to the ones at Intrade.

Mitt Romney is a loser.

[warrior1]

4. the gallop poll all ready has a thread

[riderinthestorm]

6. Translation: Obama can't afford to be complacent and he has to stop pissing on progressives nt

[JI7]

11. so progressives are supporting Romney ?

[riderinthestorm]

16. No but I think that 7% undecided is probably made up of a lot of us

dissatisfied with the ongoing conflict in Afghanistan, HCR, the continuation of the Patriot Act provisions etc.

I don't think that means an automatic vote for rMoney but I don't think Obama should be so complacent that the progressives will simply vote for him as usual.

[JI7]

21. really, that's what you got from this poll ?

[MADem]

22. Undecideds are Attention-Seeking Self-Aggrandizers, I'm afraid.

They know who they are going to vote for. They simply pretend to be undecided because they want the attention from people trying to sway their vote.

I'm of the lead, follow, or get the hell out of my way persuasion--if anyone is undecided after seeing that frigging nitwit RMoney and comparing him to the sitting President, just pass them by--they're probably too stupid to find their way to the polls and cast a vote, anyway. They're probably too stupid to have remembered to register in the first place!

I have no patience for undecideds, can ya tell?

[SpencerShay]

12. 1994, and 2010

"Progressives" could start by not "pissing" on themselves: Do 1994, and 2010 ring a bell?

[riderinthestorm]

17. Shrug. So Obama can simply fugg us.

See how many of us come out and help re-elect him then if you want to think that.

[RC]

7. Is that as far as they could spread the points?

They either aren't trying very hard or the real numbers are so far apart, that is as far as they could be stretched. Like 60/40 for Obama would be more believable.

[DisgustipatedinCA]

8. Aside from the fact that it's a Gallup poll, you'd have to ask yourself why...

...why is Romney polling two percentage points higher than Obama? Short answer: I don't know, but it doesn't make any sense on its face, and it's not true. There are people like me, who are angry at Obama from his left flank. We'll never vote for Romney, or any other Republican in a million years. There are moderate Democrats who have expressed lots of satisfaction with the President--no need for them to vote for anyone else.

On the other side of the aisle you have the hardcore of the baggers. They hate Romney to start with, and hate Obama more. Many of them won't bother to show up to vote for Romney. As to moderate Republicans--they must feel really lost this year, but that's beside the point. Moderate Republicans will probably vote for Romney. Women? Uh, no. Latinos? Same answer. African Americans? Please. Geographically speaking, Southern Republicans seem to hate Romney, and he tends to be liked by Republicans in places where they won't win the electoral college anyway, e.g., California.

What constituency is Romney left with? Billionaires. Republicans who think they'll be billionaires one of these days are probably in his camp too.

Without so much as taking a glance at the Callup poll, if it's saying Romney is up by 2%, I'm very comfortable in calling the poll bunk.

[Mr.Turnip]

14. For some more polling fun PPP seems to be starting to release their florida numbers.

No final numbers yet but they said that their poll actually shows Romney declining if Rubio were VP.

[frazzled]

15. We need a separate forum for polls

between now and November. We can call it "The Battle of the Polls," or make it kind of like off-track betting. And everyone who wants to read what they want to read in these various polls can have a good time every day laying bets on which is right.

The smarter thing to do would be to ignore the polls and go sign up with the Obama campaign to register new voters, canvass, and, in the week before the election, make get-out-the-vote calls. It's not about which poll is right, it's about getting out to do the work that will make the polls be wrong.