Gallup tracking publishes first Obama vs. Romney poll today

[Slamdrive]

Link

[LiberalLoner]

1. Yikes :(

[Joe the Revelator]

2. Well...that's not what you'd like to see.....

[GusFring]

3. wow. This is my least favorite time. Just a reminder that stupidity makes up the majority

[Proud Liberal Dem]

4. Damned indies

[otohara]

9. Unaffiliated

they are in no way "independent", just wishy washy, swing back and forth, clueless, most uninformed voters.

I've talked to many, as I'm sure many of us have.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

12. Yeah

"Independents" is what they're called but what they really mean is that they are "independent" of facts and information. Thankfully, this is a national poll and there is still plenty of time to improve on these numbers. President Obama is AFAIK still doing well in state matchups, which is what will decide the election. I believe Politico (yes, Politico) had an article over the weekend that President Obama is projected to win the EC vote under current circumstances. That being said, we need to be prepared for a tough campaign, not because Romney is necessarily a good candidate but because there are a lot of ignorant "low-information" voters out there whom might easily come to believe that Romney would be "better" for the economy than Obama, the right-wing hates Obama with the fury of a thousand suns, the right-wing has implemented voter suppression and disenfranchisement tactics, and we're probably not going to be able to match the financial edge of right-wing Super PACs.

[coalition_unwilling]

44. "Independent" is what people call themselves who are smart enough to know how

skanky the 'right wing' brand has become after 30 years of Reagan-Bushism but who are still basically right wing.

[otohara]

45. If They're So Smart

why do they let the rest of us choose the candidates?

To me that's the height of stupidity - claim to be independent, but sit out the primaries.

[coalition_unwilling]

46. I said they were only smart enough to understand that the Repuke brand

is little better than John Birch Nazi-ism these days. But secretly they harbor the middle class and upper middle class petty resentments the right wing mobilizes and exploits.

Most people I've met who call themselves 'independents' are actually really stupid, constantly trotting out the latest rightwing talking points at the drop of a hat.

[PotatoChip]

49. A co-worker once proudly announced

(in a break-room full of people) that he was an independent so that he could "vote either way."

I kid you not.

[otohara]

57. Did YOu Burst Into Laughter

[nadinbrzezinski]

27. As I pointed to a California Democratic Party official

Which is a huge secret...indies are not necessarily the center. I am one, and like many others I am way to the left (I know what it means too) than the dominant wing of the DNC.

Many indies are that on principles and are not in the mythical center.

Being a newsie being indie makes even more sense.

Anecdotally a few of my neighbors are either to the right of the RNC, yes, scary, or like me on the other side. Anectdotally I have yet to meet an indie who is a centrist

There is also another factor you shoud consider. We no longer answer pollsters.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

39. Still not very reassuring

that indies- wherever they fall on the spectrum- seem to be breaking for Mitt, at least at the moment but I imagine that, with enough time and exposure to the "hollow man", they may well reconsider. Maybe once they understand that Mitt is Norquist's ultimate "cart blanche" candidate whom will gladly sign whatever a Republican Congress sends to him, they'll think twice. The debates will probably help Obama against Mitt as well.

[nadinbrzezinski]

47. Right now you only have political junkies

why polls this early matter really little... beyond entertaining.

[MADem]

5. Aaaaaaaand.....how many cell phones did they call?

Most of my younger friends do not have land lines.

If they didn't call cells, subtract Five GOP points, for starters...

http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2010/11/22/republican-bias-landlineonly-polls-study-confirms/

[former9thward]

17. Gallup has been doing cell phones for years.

Go to their website if you want to know the history.

[MADem]

51. Really? I don't know a soul who has ever been polled on a cell--not one.

I know a lot of folks, too.

One has to wonder where they're getting their numbers.

[former9thward]

53. I only have a cell and I have been phoned twice.

Both times I have just hung up because I don't participate in polls. They likely get their numbers from the voter registration lists. Most of the time they ask for a phone number when you register to vote.

[MADem]

56. That must be a new thing. I never had to give a number to register, but that was

a loooooooong time ago.

[sadbear]

6. But are they going to bring themselves to actually vote for Mitt?

It's all about the enthusiasm.

[Moostache]

7. What were the numbers for Obama-McCain at the same time?

The initial polls are not what matters at all.
Get out the vote, make the margin beyond a recall and four more years!

[Marzupialis]

18. Gallup initially had McCain on top

by 1%:

which suggests that polls don't matter this early in the year.

[Blaukraut]

8. Judging by this poll, Romney appears to have benefitted from their primary fight

And comes out looking like the reasonable moderate republican indies can safely vote for. Once the general election battle is well underway, Romney won't seem so moderate anymore compared to President Obama.

[HughBeaumont]

10. He's dead, Jim.

As is the rhetoric.

Mitt the Twit ain't winning 2012, much as you want it to be so.

[boxman15]

11. Fuck Gallup

They Always have the president down a few points more than almost all other polls. Most show him beating Romney relatively easily with around 50% approving of his job as president.

Gallup always has him down 2-3 points to R-Money and around a 45% approval rating.

Gallup is no better than Rassmussen anymore.

[flamingdem]

13. Well, it's true we cannot afford overconfidence

The repukes are evil, we know we need a landslide.

[FrenchieCat]

14. Whoo-hoo.....

The media will have a field day with this!

I'm sure they will say that Women are in Romney's corner,
because of Ann.

This shit must have had a script written for it,
and looks like the media and Gallup will play!

That's what we are up against.....
lying ass media
lying ass manipulated polls.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

16. I agree Frenchie

I rather suspect that we will get some other national polls during the course of the this week that show Obama leading Romney. Wait for them....... No use getting worked up over a single (national) poll. Politico (yes, Politico) published an analysis showing Obama leading the EV count by a wide margin right now and that's where it counts.

But yeah, I know, the corporate media...........

[MineralMan]

15. Those are fighting numbers!

GOTV, everyone! Start today! Let's get every last Democrat to the polls in November. Every one.

[gratuitous]

19. Well, Gallup is vox dei around here

At least, whenever Gallup comes out with another one of its "liberal democrats approve of the Obama administration by 141%" polls.

[Junkdrawer]

26. That's Saint Gallup to you, pal....

And don't forget it.

Saint Gallup now sez Obama needs to move to the Right, so what's the problem?

[amandabeech]

20. A lot can happen in this country and in the world between now and then.

That's why I'm someone who takes the early polls with a grain of salt.

[mac56]

21. Gallup is the phonus bolonus.

But thank you ever so much for bringing this to our attention. I hope your DU stay is enlightening.

[HughBeaumont]

23. Was.

PPR'd.

[Wait Wut]

22. Get back to me after the first debate.

[Mosby]

24. cnn poll released just now has Obama up 9 points

Over romney.

[Avon Barksdale]

25. That's funny...

...because CNN/ORC just did a poll having Obama up 9 points on Rmoney.

[CaliforniaPeggy]

40. Welcome to DU, Avon Barksdale!

[Proud Liberal Dem]

43. This is why

we need to avoid a massive freakout over a single poll, particularly from Gallup, which has never seemed to be very Obama-friendly. If a lot of polls start to say one thing the other way, THEN we should probably be getting worried.

[warrior1]

28. why don't

the factor how much Romney is hated by his own party.

[SpencerShay]

29. Calm Down! It's a DAILY tracking poll!

This is not surprising since the three-day rolling average has the president’s job approval ratings back in negative territory, after being at 49% approval last week. It’s a DAILY tracking poll! Sometimes President Obama will be up, and sometimes he will be down. It's going to go up, and down, like his job approval ratings. Plus, some pollsters have been under the assumption that 2012 turnout, is going to be the same as the turnout in 2010. In 2008, before $arah Palin, the Gallup poll even had John McCain ahead of Barack Obama, but we know who still won in the end. Of course, once President Obama re-takes the lead in the Gallup tracking poll, you won't hear about it in the media.

Plus this from the Gallup poll:

“History shows that the candidates' positioning in the spring of an election year is not necessarily good at forecasting the election outcomes. For example, in an April 20-22, 1992, Gallup poll, incumbent President George H.W. Bush was ahead with 41% of the vote, compared with 26% for Bill Clinton and 25% for Ross Perot. And in an April 11-14, 1980, poll, incumbent President Jimmy Carter led Ronald Reagan by 42% to 34%, with John Anderson receiving 18% support. Both Bush and Carter, of course, ultimately lost their re-election bids.”

And, the Gallup poll may have a good reputation, but it’s not like the Gallup poll has never been wrong, or is above gaming their polls:

In 2010, the Gallup poll’s final midterm election poll gave the republicans a 15 point lead. The republicans won “big,” in 2010, but not that big. In reality, the republicans had like a 6 point lead in the polls. The Gallup poll was so screwed up in 2010, other pollsters started to take notice. That same year, Gallup also said blacks were going to turnout in huge “historic” numbers to vote for the G.O.P., which of course, never happened.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/144125/republicans-appear-poised-win-big-tuesday.aspx

Final Gallup 2010 midterm election poll:

Republicans: 55%

Democrats: 40%

[Marzupialis]

30. Midterms have been historically harder to predict...

than Presidential elections.

[SpencerShay]

31. But...

Most of the other polls in 2010 (Washington Post, PPP, CNN, NBC, CBS/New York Times) got it right. It was also the first time in decades the Gallup poll got it so completely wrong. Plus, Gallup's calculation that blacks blacks were going to vote for the G.O.P. in "historic" numbers in 2010 was wrong. Gallup messed up in 2010.

[SpencerShay]

32. CNN

CNN released another poll today, with President Obama leading Mitt Romney by like several points. And, then there's this from the new CNN poll:



"Trying to be as objective as possible, who do you think will win in November?"

Obama 61% / Romney 35% (CNN/ORC Poll)

Mitt Romney is a loser.

[riderinthestorm]

33. Translation: Obama can't afford to be complacent and he has to stop pissing on progressives nt

[SpencerShay]

37. News Flash:

It's a DAILY tracking poll. President Obama could be in the lead, by the end of the week. The other polls, like the new CNN poll have President Obama in the LEAD.

Progressives need to stop PISSING on themselves: 2010 ring a bell?

[Mr.Turnip]

34. What the hell caused Romney to get a bounce in a bunch of polls recently?

[AtomicKitten]

35. Farewell Slamdrive -- See you next reincarnation. nt

[NYC Liberal]

38. "Repeat troll, banned multiple times"

Yep, it'll be back.

[Kingofalldems]

36. Looks like the OP was PPRed.

[npk]

41. The first gallup usually give a slight edge to the challenger

When you factor in the bad economy, high energy prices and everything else, it not uncommon for independent voters to give their initial opinion to the challenger rather than the incumbent. Quite honestly I am surprised Romney doesn't have a larger edge in this first poll. I expect that Obama's numbers will climb once Obama can debate Romney one on one.

[Mr.Turnip]

42. looking at the numbers that we have from Gallup (which are limited)

It looks like Gallup is using a turnout model similar to 2010, which is of course absurd for a Presidential year, if we went by the 2008 model with these same numbers Obama would be ahead by around 4 or 5.

[SidDithers]

48. Byeeeee....

Wonder if the MIRT and Admins feel like they're playing Whack-A-Mole sometimes.

Sid

[Rosa Luxemburg]

50. People like their services to be cut

they are like lemmings. The GOP cuts all their services, education etc. and they say yes please.

[book_worm]

52. Why is Gallup the only pollster showing Obama behind Romney nationally?

[Marzupialis]

58. Well, Callup plus Republican pollsters

Fox and Rasmussen, which makes your statement still accurate.

[warrior1]

54. always remember

that McCain beat Romney in 08, and Obama beat McCain.

Obama going to clean his clock in November.

[TNLib]

55. Odd most other polls have Obama ahead

Maybe it's an out lier. Or gallup just sucks.

[Karmadillo]

59. Obama shouldn't have let the liberals pull him so far to the left.