For the 2014 Doom and Gloomers: The Seven Senate Races Democrats Should Be Optimistic About in 2016

[wyldwolf]

(from earlier this year)

6/7. Missouri/New Hampshire. Both of these states were seen as Democratic pick-up opportunities early in 2009; both fell easily to Republicans. But in both states, Democrats have elected broadly popular governors who've run ahead of Obama. Missouri's Jay Nixon (who lost a 1998 Senate race by 9 points) will be finishing a second term, as (probably) will New Hampshire's Maggie Hassan. (She's up again this year but not struggling.) If either are coaxed to run, they make competitive races.

4/5. Kentucky/Florida. Both states are represented by senators with barely-disguised national ambitions. Neither can run for re-election if he runs for the presidency. After Arkansas and Missouri, Kentucky is the state where the Clinton-led ticket is expected to run most strongly ahead of the two doomed Obama-Biden tickets. (This has at least a little to do with race.) It's also one of the last red state redoubts of electable Democrats. If Attorney General Jack Conway or Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes lose races this year and next year (he's running for governor, she's running for Senate), both would be beseeched by Democrats to look at the open Senate seat. Florida's Democratic bench is weaker, funny enough, but the state is trending blue.

3. Wisconsin. First-time candidate Ron Johnson defeated Sen. Russ Feingold easier than anyone not paid by Johnson had thought possible. Feingold left politics, joining the Obama administration to work on African issues. Johnson has established himself as a b.s.-free conservative who refused to engage in shutdown politics and has picked smart fights with the Obama administration. He is, according to reporter Ken Vogel, seen by the Koch network as a model politician. But in 2016 he'll be running in a state likely to break for Hillary Clinton. Feingold could return from the Bush, or Rep. Ron Kind could finally make the statewide run he's been passing on for years.

... more...

http://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel/2014/07/03/the_seven_senate_races_democrats_should_be_optimistic_about_in_2016.html

[dsc]

1. some I would add

In NC, Burr has had to deny rumors of retirement due to his lack of fundraising. If he were to retire or even if he weren't we could win his seat. Hagan, despite a huge barrage of negative ads from outside groups, is in the best shape of our endangered incumbents clinging to a small but consistent lead. In Ohio, Portman has irked his base with his stand on marriage equality and will likely be primaried and could well lose to a right wing challenger.

[tritsofme]

2. If it is a good night, we could approach 60 votes come 2017.

With Hillary atop the ticket and a non-credible GOP candidate, it is a distinct possibility.

The map is filled with pickup opportunities. That's why limiting the damage this year is so important.

[davidpdx]

3. It is worth keeping an eye on those 2016 races

Hopefully the landscape will become even more favorable over time and create other openings to go after.