The window of opportunity to contain the ebola outbreak is closing

[cali]

n the past week, world leaders have started using a mathematical term when they talk about the Ebola epidemic in West Africa.

"It's spreading and growing exponentially," President Obama said Tuesday. "This is a disease outbreak that is advancing in an exponential fashion," said Dr. David Nabarro, who is heading the U.N.'s effort against Ebola.

<snip>

Some scientists, like Alessandro Vespignani at Northeastern University in Boston, are taking numbers like that and putting them into computer models to see where this epidemic is going.

So every day or week that goes by, the epidemic gets harder and harder to control. The number of cases rises. The number of beds, doctors and nurses needed to stop it just keeps going up. Quicker and quicker.

The actual number of cases is likely higher than what's been reported, the World Health Organization says, so the models are underestimating the situation.

"The window of opportunity is closing in a sense," Vespignani says. "And that's why it's very important to understand that this is the moment to act."

When we first heard about these numbers, they sounded a bit alarmist. But then a few other modelers published their own models. The forecast is consistent: There's exponential growth with somewhere around 15,000 cases by mid-October.

<snip>

http://www.npr.org/blogs/goatsandsoda/2014/09/18/349341606/why-the-math-of-the-ebola-epidemic-is-so-scary

[Agschmid]

1. Kick. #1 issue worldwide right now.

[cali]

2. I agree. I am not concerned about an outbreak in the U.S.

We have the facilities to stop it. I am concerned about it ravaging Africa- which would be a worldwide disaster.

[phantom power]

6. I think you are probably right about the U.S., although....

We also have our share of populated slums, and self-defeating ignorance.

“I’m just getting very confused about the nature of this enemy. Is it those scary little worms that Drudge always has on the Drudge Report? The scary little Ebola worms? Is that the real threat to national security?”
--Laura Ingraham

I wouldn't want to see ebola get loose here either.

[cali]

8. It's the lack of healthcare infrastructure that has allowed ebola

to spread so quickly. slums or not, the U.S. has the capability to get any outbreak, quickly under control. I don't think you'll find a contagious disease expert who disagrees with that.

[Mojorabbit]

32. We don't have that many open hospital beds available

and even less isolation beds. It would cause panic here and might not be so easily contained. I am a retired nurse who just spent a week in the hospital a couple of months ago. I waited over 24 hours for a bed.

[cali]

34. that's not what the vast majority of experts say. there are extensive protocols for

such an outbreak.

Surely you're not suggesting that a suspected ebola patient would wait for a bed. We've already seen that health professionals are on the look out for ebola and taking immediate action.

http://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/829615

[Mojorabbit]

41. No, I was not suggesting that an Ebola patient would wait for a bed. nt

[yeoman6987]

31. Please hope it does not arrive in the United States

That would be an absolute tragedy.

[liberalhistorian]

43. And it's not a tragedy that it's ravaging

Africa? It's not a tragedy that thousands in Africa have now suffered and died and thousands more are projected to suffer horribly and die from it? It's only a tragedy if it makes its way to the developed world and to the Almighty US of A, aka, white people? Please tell me that that is not what you are saying and what you meant. I hope I'm misunderstanding you.

[logosoco]

3. I am very glad to see Obama is concerned about this.

Someone else somewhere else said something about "how many white people have to die" before this gets attention.
I am not much of an alarmist, and maybe I am paying more attention to this because my son is in eastern Africa right now, but we seem to live in a world where many think we can fight against terrorism, but no one seems very interested in things like this, which is, in a way, terrorism from nature, that we can actually do something about. But, we do live among many who ignore climate change and will until too many have lost their beach front property.

[cali]

4. agreed- that it's Africa and the fear factor.

I hope your son keeps safe.

[littlemissmartypants]

5. Agreed. All the best to you and your son. nt

[magical thyme]

7. this is a rare situation where the use of the word "exponential" is not hype.

The doubling time was down to 4 weeks by mid-Sept. Without a massive increase in aide, within a few weeks it could be down to just 1 week.

[cali]

9. right. it's applied correctly in this context. the article delves into that.

[magical thyme]

11. and now I've just read the doubling time is down to 3 weeks; 2 weeks in Monrovia.

And as little as 10 days in some areas according to WHO.

When it gets down to 1 week, we'll be looking at a million victims in short order.

[B2G]

23. It is

In the spring, cases were doubling about every 6 weeks.

From June - early August, that went to 4 weeks.

Since then, cases have doubled every 3 weeks. Liberia is a little ahead of that at about 2.5.


Tracking table mid-way down.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ebola_virus_epidemic_in_West_Africa

[enki23]

27. That's actually faster than exponential growth.

"Mere" exponential growth should have a constant doubling time during the exponential growth phase (which, for obvious reasons, usually doesn't go on for all that many doublings).

[magical thyme]

28. the WHO is reporting the current doubling time as 10 to 21 days...

...in one of the articles posted today.

The thing is, since they don't really know how many people have been infected, so all their numbers are only of known cases, nobody really knows what the doubling time is or has been.

[enki23]

36. Sure. I was being half facetious. Stupid modeler jokes.

Anyway, yeah. That's the sort of data somebody will get to work through some time down the line to figure out an estimate what the final tallies and rates were. And try not to think about all the horror that's in those numbers.

[bullwinkle428]

10. Brutally honest truth : most Americans will only start paying attention

when white people start to die.

Look at the 2004 Tsunami - it wouldn't have been nearly as big a deal in the media in the U.S. had there not been many so many deaths of European and U.S. tourists.

Ebola IS a big fucking deal, and people need to start taking notice. K&R.

[newfie11]

12. It has got to have moved into transmission by air.

its moving to fast and big to be just body fluids. People trained in sterile fields/procedures are coming down with it. I think we are not being told to prevent a panic. Cause the government knows all ya know.

[hedgehog]

15. Riiiiiiight - and there is no way any health worker putting in a 16 hour day sweating in an

un-cooled protective suit washing down the exterior of said suit with a bleach solution from a bucket could ever possibly contract Ebola unless it has gone air borne.


On the other hand - I recall the widespead panic in Buffalo a few years back when it was revealed that people in Toronto were coming down with the air borne SARS.

http://www.ehatlas.ca/sars-severe-acute-respiratory-syndrome/case-study/sars-outbreak-canada

and of course, any panic over Ebola would be swamped by the panic over the on-going epidemic of Enterovirus D68 sweeping the nation:

http://edition.cnn.com/2014/09/07/health/respiratory-virus-midwest/

Why, people are raiding stores to stock up on chips and beer, lots and lots of beer, gathering in parking lots and cooking burgers and hot dogs over outdoor grills, many of them with special paint all over their faces, in an attempt to outwit the virus.

[cali]

21. very unlikely

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/fact-or-fiction-the-ebola-virus-will-go-airborne/

[marym625]

13. and look at the biggest story about this in the US

Two white Americans cured. Yeah, hype that to make sure the real story is ignored

[SheilaT]

14. Ebola is far more dangerous than many people understand.

And while I'm not someone very likely to panic over this, my guess is that there's a very real possibility it could happen here. And I say possibility, not probability, because we do for the most part have a medical infrastructure that can handle this. But if it were to get loose in some one of our all too many slums, it could do a lot of damage before brought under control.

another thing is that people don't understand what really happens with doubling. Here's an oldie but goodie:

If a lily pad is introduced into a pond, and every day the number of lily pads doubles, so that on the thirtieth day the pond is exactly covered, what day was the pond only half covered?


/


/



/



/



/


/
The 29th day.

Or, another example of doubling is that someone hires a laborer for a month, and when they are discussing wages, the laborer says, "How about you pay me like this. One cent the first day, two cents the second day, four cents the third day, and so on. Every day you double my wages for the month I work for you." The person hiring agrees. What is the final day's (the 30th day)wages?
/

/

/

/

/

/

/

/

/

/

$10,737,418.24

Doubling is a powerful tool. And a powerful weapon.

[hedgehog]

17. Excuse me, but the OP here is about Ebola. Clearly, you are responding to an

OP about student loans.

Always glad to be of assistance!

[SheilaT]

22. LOL!

You actually did make me laugh out loud! Thanks!

[hedgehog]

46. Thanks for the reply - I was worried that you'd be offended,

but I have a very quirky sense of humor and couldn't resist. (Not to mention - paying of a bunch of student loans tends to bring them to the forefront of my mind. Plus, my elderly dad is trying to pay off a life-time's burden of credit card debt.)

[liberalhistorian]

44. See, I have my doubts that we'd have as much

capability to control and handle it if it does make its way here. Republicans have gutted the public health system for years so that it's not nearly as effective as it once was, and neither is the necessary infrastructure. And we're really going to pay for that one of these days, if not with an Ebola outbreak, with something else. It will happen, it's just a matter of time.

[etherealtruth]

16. I am terrified the window has already closed

I hope I am wrong .... but, there is no chance of containing it if "we" do not get help (people, money, supplies) on the ground very, very soon

[hedgehog]

18. I'm oddly glad that people are worried about this going airborne.

Otherwise, the West would look the other way if it were only poor Africans at risk.

[etherealtruth]

19. Without doubt :-(

[B2G]

20. On doubling

The projections they're making are based on known cases. Those numbers are way undereported...I've seen testimony that there are likely 4 times the number the WHO is reporting.

Which makes sense. They can only report on those they have contact with.

[magical thyme]

24. the WHO itself is on record as saying the actual number of cases is 2-4 times what they're reporting

So even the true doubling time is unknown at this point.

[B2G]

25. I've been wondering about the lockdown in Sierra Leone

While I understand why they are doing it, what happens when healthy families are holed up in their homes for 3 days with sick folks.

Wouldn't that just transmit the virus quicker?

[magical thyme]

26. They're using that time to distribute protective equipment (mostly gloves I think), cleansers, etc,

along with quick instruction on caring for any sick people in the home. And they're also using that time to (surreptitiously) count unreported sick and dead.

They're going house to house to do this. If they also were to distribute food and water, they could extend the lockdown further.

I don't think it will transmit it further, since it stops infected people from roaming the streets and infecting others. It may pause the spread from sick families to nonsick families.

They don't have a lot of tools available at this point, so are using what they've got.

It will take some weeks to get international aid up and running. However long to get the military and supplies and equipment over there, facilities set up, and then 7-10 days to train whatever volunteers they can drum up. Frankly I think at this point its a day late/dollar short.

[liberalhistorian]

45. And it doesn't help at all that crazy

people are attacking and murdering medical and burial teams that are trying to help, to do their job and both help the victims and prevent further spread. That'll really make people want to go and help. NOT.

[magical thyme]

48. what they are is terrified people

They've been through decades of civil war, so harbor deep mistrust of government. They see people going into hospitals and dying. They've never had ebola in that region before. So they believe that the disinfectant spray is actually ebola and that they are being deliberately killed.

Even armed with knowledge, I expect I'd be terrified if people wearing hazmat suits came up to my door...

[IDemo]

30. The "Democrat party" is discussing the Ebola outbreak on this thread

What are your thoughts on the subject?

[leftstreet]

33. DURec

[locks]

35. The media is paying more attention

some of the articles are outstanding if you can find them, but they are late and all the numbers, graphs and scientific research will not bring the world to the point where it will react at the speed needed.

Some of the developed nations are responding after the emergency session at the UN, Cuba sending 165 health workers, Gates donating 50 mil, MSF recruiting more doctors and professionals than ever before, US sending 3000 troops to build clinics, journalists onsite stories of suffering and dying people, all efforts that help, but simply too little and probably too late for our neighbors who are suffering so severely from this deadly virus.

We may be able to contain the virus over time but if the underdeveloped countries cannot build national public health systems that work there will be another tragedy of epic proportions in no time. If the developed nations continue to spend their wealth on arms and oil instead of health, education, and the environment, there is little hope for any of us or our mother Earth.

[Zorra]

37. July 31: "Hopefully, all the nations of the world will come together right now

and pool resources to help stop this horrible disease".

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014859426#post11

[morningfog]

38. 21 million people live in the three counties where

is hasn't yet been contained. It is kind of amazing that only 5,000-10,000 have been infected so far. The half a million by year end seems likely

Then what?

[cali]

47. I don't know and it doesn't seem like anyone does

economies in ruins, panic, refugees and ???. It's not good however you look at it.

[Warren DeMontague]

39. The most important story that almost no one is talking about.

the numbers are frightening.

[Zorra]

40. They've been frightening for a long time.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014859426#post11

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=5329761

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=5337842

I kept posting about the exponential increase; maybe I should have explained why.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ebola_virus_epidemic_in_West_Africa#Timeline

[Warren DeMontague]

42. Indeed. I've been concerned about it since April.

One situation where I would have preferred my gut instinct to have been way off.