Scotland’s referendum: Why the “no” vote was still a stunning watershed

[RandySF]

As for the waverers, there’s no doubt that a good number were scared into voting no by Cameron’s dark warnings of the economic risks of secession. But much more significant is the number who were swayed by the package of concessions that the prime minister was forced to offer as part of his desperate effort to keep the U.K. intact, giving Scotland much more authority to set its own policies on taxation, public spending and social welfare. So this was something much more subtle than just a crude yes/no split. While Scotland clearly rejected outright secession, it demanded, and will now gain, a much greater degree of autonomy. Cameron’s promises of devolving new powers to Scotland were so explicit that he is now bound to honor them, and he has said as much.

But the real key to understanding what happened yesterday is how the vote broke down by age and geography. Only two of Scotland’s 32 council districts voted yes, but one of them was Glasgow, by far the biggest city, and the other was Dundee, the fourth-largest (and coincidentally my grandmother’s hometown). The core of the no vote was older and rural. Voters over 65 favored staying in the U.K. by an overwhelming 73 to 27 percent. But younger voters were radically different. Fifty-nine percent of those between 25 and 34 said yes. In the 35 to 44 age band, 53 percent voted for independence.

These people are Scotland’s next generation of leaders. For them, nationalism is no longer about kilts and bagpipes and haggis (though whiskey doesn’t seem to have lost its popularity). This generation is liberal, green, edgy, cosmopolitan. Its coming of age coincides with the emergence of Glasgow and Edinburgh as distinctive, internationally renowned cultural centers. Young adults and those approaching middle age have grown up with a strong sense of European identity, one big reason being the devolution of power away from Westminster that has already occurred, rooted in the rebellion against Thatcherism and the collapse of the Tory vote in Scotland. Since its creation in 1999, the Scottish Parliament has been vigorously internationalist, strengthening its commitment to a Scandinavian-style social safety net and pushing the EU to set more ambitious goals for a transition to renewable energy. Now it will have control over taxes, expenditures and social policies as well.

So the fat lady did not really sing in Scotland yesterday. David Cameron said last night that the matter was now settled for a generation. But in the context of 700 years of history, a generation is nothing. More significant is what the SNP leader, Alex Salmond, said in conceding defeat: “Let us not dwell on the distance we have fallen short, let us dwell on the distance we have traveled.” And I have a feeling my grandmother would have agreed.

http://www.salon.com/2014/09/19/scotland’s_referendum_700_years_in_the_making_why_the_no_vote_was_still_a_stunning_watershed/

[MADem]

1. "The core of the no vote was older and rural" but the bulk of the polling was "online style."

I anticipated that they would under-sample the very crowd, those pensioners and near-pensioners, who would be the most likely to vote.

[BrotherIvan]

2. Was having the same discussion this morning

We may have to wait another generation in order to shed some of the fearful before we move forward in this country. It's obvious Scotland needs to do the same.

[kiva]

8. It fascinates me that people think that

the next 'older generation' will be any different than previous 'older generations'. Look at any study done and every generation has similar patterns in how their beliefs change, and why. There will always be outliers - many of us are here - but the idea that any generation will not contain conservatives does not have a factual base.

[BrotherIvan]

9. Perhaps, perhaps not

Our society is becoming more diverse. There are probably people who have never known a person of color, or an out LBGTQ person, who lived through the time of segregation and before the Civil Rights era; those people will die out. Look at the shift towards acceptance of things such as gay marriage or marijuana. There are and will be young racists, fundagelicals, and bigots--they are doing their best to indoctrinate at a surprising rate--but on the whole, our country is turning more liberal. Most admit that Republicans can't win a national election because the math doesn't work. Most Republicans hold their seats because of gerrymandering. The idea that this country as whole is more conservative is absolute rubbish, a fiction created by the oligarchs to slam through conservative laws.

[SheilaT]

11. Actually, there's reason to believe

that a generational cohort retains essential qualities throughout their lifespans. The book Generations by Neil Howe and William Strauss covers this topic in wonderful detail. They say that generations can be identified, and will go through their lifespan more or less as a group. We're already familiar with this concept as in this country we've been naming the generations for a long time now. The Boomers are distinct from the Gen Xers, who are in turn distinct from the Millennials, and so on. It's an excellent book and I constantly recommend it.

[Fearless]

3. It's easy to see why this is the case.

Those who are older are more likely to worry about their safety in the near future whereas the younger are able to take a longer term view of what will be good for them. For instance, if they were to move to the Euro or some other form of money for currency, exchange rates would be uncertain and their security in old age would be uncertain. The younger you are the more time you would have to protect yourself from changes. The older you are the more fearful you become of change and the more desiring of normalcy you become.

[Oakenshield]

4. Not surprised about the elderly voting NO.

The elderly do tend to be firm defenders of the status quo.

[SheilaT]

5. Does this mean that another referendum in five or ten years

will lead to Scotland as a separate country?

[sibelian]

6. If the promised powers come, no.

If they don't, which is much more likely, then another referendum will come, and likely sooner rather than later.

[ReRe]

7. It was truly a great achievement...

... if the mostly "young" yes voters can & will look at it in the context of Scotland's "700 years of history." This generation needs now to prepare and educate themselves for the coming "Yes" vote in the future. They need to ready themselves to take the reins the next time. The threats will fall on deaf ears at that point.

I do think those undecided's were scared by Cameron's threats. Fear won out. Pretty sad that Britain thinks it can't stand on it's own two feet if one of it's "Kingdoms" claims it's independence.

[mackerel]

10. So how the English going to thank the Scots?