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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsU.S. Scientists See Long Fight Against Ebola
The numbers in this article are sobering...
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U.S. Scientists See Long Fight Against Ebola
By DENISE GRADYSEPT. 12, 2014
The deadly Ebola outbreak sweeping across three countries in West Africa is likely to last 12 to 18 months more, much longer than anticipated, and could infect hundreds of thousands of people before it is brought under control, say scientists mapping its spread for the federal government.
We hope were wrong, said Bryan Lewis, an epidemiologist at the Virginia Bioinformatics Institute at Virginia Tech.
Both the time the model says it will take to control the epidemic and the number of cases it forecasts far exceed estimates by the World Health Organization, which said last month that it hoped to control the outbreak within nine months and predicted 20,000 total cases by that time. The organization is sticking by its estimates, a W.H.O. spokesman said Friday.
But researchers at various universities say that at the viruss present rate of growth, here could easily be close to 20,000 cases in one month, not in nine. Some of the United States leading epidemiologists, with long experience in tracking diseases such as influenza, have been creating computer models of the Ebola epidemic at the request of the National Institutes of Health and the Defense Department.
(more at link):
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/13/world/africa/us-scientists-see-long-fight-against-ebola.html?ref=world&_r=0#
B2G
(9,766 posts)Graphs at link.
SidDithers
(44,228 posts)which might be exponentially more informative if the axes were labeled.
Sid
B2G
(9,766 posts)Lol...gonna delete since they're essentially meaningless.
SidDithers
(44,228 posts)Sid
B2G
(9,766 posts)magical thyme
(14,881 posts)Dr. Shamans research team created a model that estimated the number of cases through Oct. 12, with different predictions based on whether control of the epidemic stays about the same, improves or gets worse. If control stays the same, according to the model, the case count by Oct. 12 will be 18,406. If control improves, it will be 7,861. If control worsens, it will soar to 54,895.
B2G
(9,766 posts)Certainly not in the next 6 weeks...