Concern growing that Putin may try to cause problems in Estonia

[davidn3600]

President Obama last week reaffirmed the United States’ commitment to the security of Estonia, one of a handful of small former Soviet states bordering Russia that have joined the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Two days later, according to the Estonian government, Russian agents crossed the border, and using smoke grenades and radio jamming devices, kidnapped an officer of the country’s Internal Security Service.

The officer, Eston Kohver, appeared later that day in Moscow, where he was charged with spying and carrying an illegal handgun, according to the British Broadcasting Corporation. Russia claims that Kohver was arrested on Russian soil, but Estonian officials claim that not only is this untrue, but that Kohver appears to have walked into a trap set by Russia’s security service, the FSB.

The alleged kidnapping of Kohver has increased tensions among the independent states in Europe and Asia that were once part of the Soviet Union. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula this summer, and its ongoing support, including troops and weaponry, of rebels in Eastern Ukraine has many concerned that Russian President Vladimir Putin intends to reunite the former Soviet Union by force.

In remarks at the opening of the Estonian Parliament on Monday, President Toomas Hendrik Ilves said that Russia’s aggression in Ukraine has revealed its true intent.

“The masks have fallen,” he said. “We see how Russia continues to isolate itself from democratic nations.” Addressing the taking of the security officer, he said, “Russian security service FSB kidnapped an Estonian citizen from Estonian soil and took him to a prison in Moscow and even bans the Estonian consul from meeting the Estonian citizen.”

http://news.yahoo.com/why-estonia-might-next-putin-093000225.html

Putin is absolutely determined to reclaim the territory the Soviet Union had. And this is an INCREDIBLY dangerous game he's playing.

Just so everyone is aware of the stakes here....Article 5 of the NATO treaty states than any attack on one member nation is considered an attack on all. If Russia attacks Estonia (a full NATO member)....by law, NATO is at war with Russia. World War 3.

[geek tragedy]

1. Russia is a gangster state, engaging in theft, kidnapping,and racketeering

one deals with mobsters by putting them behind bars

[LiberalEsto]

2. I have relatives in Estonia

This is something we've been dreading for years.

[mnhtnbb]

5. We spent the day in Tallinn last May as one stop on a Baltic cruise.

We were fascinated to hear the tour guide talk about the history of
the Soviet occupation--not something with which we were familiar.

I can just imagine how worrisome this is for them.

[Cha]

15. I looked for you when the President was in Estonia, LiberalEsto! It was quite the visit..I hope

you got to see reportage and pics? They loved him.

[ballyhoo]

22. A lot of things could happen between now

and Russia going after Estonia. He's got to finish with Eukraine, and then he maybe goes after Moldova. Estonia would be next, but there will be another American President by then. And probably a new French and English leader. Hopefully, the next crew will stand up to Putin, but a lot of that depends on the economic status of the US and the strength of the dollar, which diminishes every week now. I would say Estonia is safe--but not because of any NATO counter attack. Because of simple timing.

[sendero]

3. I know this will not be a popular opinion..

..... but I believe Putin has decided, not wholly without evidence, that Obama is loathe to enter a conflict of any kind and that he will be able to push him around.

So far, he's doing pretty good.

[kelly1mm]

4. While I agree in general with your premise, I think that an attack on a NATO member

would force a military reaction from the US.

[sendero]

7. He's not going to do...

... "attack". He's going to play around like he's doing in Ukraine, with everyone knowing he's breaking the rules but with plausible deniability.

Wait and see, his game is pretty easy to grok.

[geek tragedy]

8. Difference is that any monkey business inside Estonia can be dealt

with swiftly and decisively, and with overwhelming force if need be.

It wouldn't be the festering wound that we saw in helpless Ukraine

[kelly1mm]

10. Well Putin did basically steal Crimea from Ukraine and make it part of Russia proper. Can't really

do THAT with Estonia. Additionally, there are NATO troops and air power in Estonia that I believe would be used against any 'rebels'.

[eridani]

24. Khruschev stole it from Russia in 1956 without a vote

At least they got to vote this time.

[kelly1mm]

26. And the 1994 Bucharest Agreement on Ukraine giving up its nukes stated that Russia (and the US/UK)

would guarantee Ukraine's territorial integrity (including Crimea).

Lots of 'what ifs' and 'so what's' to go around. Is your point that if a region's population wants to declare independence from the larger country they are a part of that they should be able to then I guess you have a point (I do concede that the majority of Crimea's population wanted to join Russia).

Should Scotland be able to leave GB?
What about the Basques in Spain?
Shoot, what about Hawaii or Alabama here in the US?

[eridani]

30. In real life, Scotland is voting on leaving GB very soon.

Russian speakers are the majority in Crimea, though not in Ukraine as a whole. I'm hoping that Putin has the good sense to quit while he is ahead, and go along with greater regional autonomy in eastern Ukraine.


http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/05/world/europe/no-easy-way-out.html?_r=0

The precedent may be Abkhazia and South Ossetia, pro-Moscow regions that broke away from the former Soviet republic of Georgia. After Russia’s war with Georgia in 2008, the Kremlin defied the United States and the rest of the world by recognizing their independence and left troops in place to guarantee it. The United States and Europe ultimately resumed doing business as usual with Russia.

[kelly1mm]

31. I know about Scotland - it looks like they may indeed leave the UK. I have mixed feelings I supose

If I say it is OK for Crimea to leave Ukraine (again, I concede the population there voted to join Russia), should it also be OK for Hawaii or Texas to leave the US? If not, what is different?

Do you think Hawaii should be able to leave the US if the population in HI voted to leave?

[sir pball]

28. Bingo. The GOP hates that treaties are the law of the land, until they need to be TLoTL..

Russia militarily attacks Estonia, I guarantee Teh Ryt will be SCREAMING how "a law greater even than TEH KONSTITUSHUNZ says we need to NUKE TEH COMMIEZ!!1!"

Strangely enough, in this case, I do actually agree - with the premise at least. Treaties, especially ones as serious and far-reaching as the North Atlantic Treaty, do need to be respected. Hell, this isn't even some post-9/11 legal stretching to invoke Article 5, this is exactly the scenario NATO came together to prevent. At least Russia hasn't gotten onto putting together a new Warsaw Pact...though it seems like most of the former crew aren't too interested..

[Benton D Struckcheon]

9. Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine aren't NATO members.

Neither is Syria, for that matter.
One of the things Merkel has been trying to do with Poroshenko is to disabuse him of the idea that he can win a military conflict with Russia, because the West will ride to his rescue. That simply isn't going to happen. We'll isolate Russia, but unfortunately for him Ukraine isn't important enough to warrant actual military confrontation, regardless of the hype from rt.com and the associated Putin propagandists.
Putin is doing as much as he can within some extremely proscribed limits. He can play with any one of the former republics that haven't become NATO members, at least for now, until his economy really begins to suffer. He can take some casualties, but not on a big scale, because then protests will flare up from within Russia. Russia is much larger than any of the places he wants to attack, so the latter isn't too confining, and the economy will keep going through sheer inertia until it won't anymore, and no one knows where that point is, except that pretty much everyone knows it won't take much longer than twenty years. Which is more than enough for Putin, certainly. The next generation of Russians will have to, once again, pick up the pieces of the mess left to them by their forebears.

[Cha]

16. Thanks once again for your analysis, Benton. I do feel bad for the Russian People.

I know how bad it was for a lot of us when bush was dictatin' around.

[Benton D Struckcheon]

38. It actually amazes me how much Obama and I think alike on this.

He must get the same feeling I get when he looks at Russia: what are you guys thinking?
He's right that they don't make anything anyone else wants to buy. The only exceptions to that are arms, which aren't exactly the sort of thing a progressive should be cheering on, but some of our distinguished contributors seem to not have a problem with that, and vodka. And energy too, but that's not actually made; that's just a function of the fact they sit on such a huge land mass it's bound to have all kinds of mineral wealth underneath.
He's also right that they're doing this to themselves. It reminds me of reading a biography of Napoleon, where after he came back from Elba and right away started fighting all of France's neighbors, the French, well a lot of them, finally figured out it wasn't France everyone was fighting, it was Napoleon. Same thing here. The only one stirring up trouble is Putin. If he weren't doing that, and instead directing the considerable talents of the Russian people to peaceful pursuits, none of this would be happening. Neither Georgia nor Moldova were enough to keep Russia from having observer status at NATO, and from actually collaborating on all kinds of things with NATO and with NATO members.
Annexing Crimea changed everything. Everyone's on to him now.

[Cha]

39. thank goodness more are on to what Putin is actually doing instead what his RT

pushers say he Isn't doing. "It's all the West's fault".. leave Putin alone to do his dirty work"

[eridani]

25. Merkel also presented a plan for greater autonomy within a Ukrainian federation

Wonder if Poroschenko took it seriously.

[TwilightGardener]

13. Ukraine was not an initiative that had much to do with Obama.

It had to do with the way events unfolded there, which left him without a friendly puppet. The weird kidnapping bullshit in Estonia, who knows--same with buzzing ships with Russian jets, incursions near Finnish/Swedish airspace, spy ships to Cuba, etc. He's acting out with the only tools in his toolbox: attempts at intimidation.

[ballyhoo]

19. You got that right. Even if Putin attacks a NATO member it

will be up to Merkel, Hollande and Cameron to respond. Obama is a lame duck.

[stevenleser]

21. You have in the past accused Obama of inciting a coup in Ukraine but now he is a lame duck

because it suits your purposes to claim he is doing too much in one situation and not enough to support a NATO member in another?

[TwilightGardener]

27. Consistency? We don't need no steenkin' consistency!!

Pulls off a coup and brings NATO to Pootie's doorstep! TOTAL AGGRESSION!!! But alternately, at other times, too weak to even help NATO! WEAK AGGRESSION!! AGGRESSIVE WEAKNESS!!

[sir pball]

29. In the event of an attack on a NATO member, I expect

A full and appropriate military response from EVERY SIGNATORY of the treaty, up to and including total war. It's what the North Atlantic Treaty requires; if you don't like it then petition for us to exit.

[ballyhoo]

32. There is a greater chance of a meteor landing in your back yard. If

"I" don't like it-- Yeah, right: I am not in government. I am a mere voter whose vote now gets ignored in deference to what the MIC wants.

[sir pball]

34. An attack on NATO or a response?

I think we're all clear that an attack on NATO might very well happen - do you think we wouldn't respond, and why?

I am a voter, but I haven't been given a chance to vote on repealing this treaty so for now it's The Law Of The Land.

[davidn3600]

37. The whole point of the treaty is to protect Europe from Russia

So yeah, there needs to be a military response. If we let Russia take Estonia or Lithuania, the treaty is toast and so is eastern Europe.

Really though, the best policy at this point in time is to put NATO forces in Estonia and just sit there. If Putin wants it that bad, he'll have to fire the first shot and declare an actual war in violation of every international law. None of these shenanigans about fueling opposition gangs like they did in Ukraine. If they do that in Estonia, NATO needs to move in with force and knock them out.

I understand Obama and Merkel may not want to do that for fear that it would be interpreted as escalation. But someone needs to raise their voice here and draw a line in the sand.

[NuclearDem]

6. Don't believe it for a second.

After all, it didn't come from RT.

[Uncle Joe]

11. Kicked and recommended.

Thanks for the thread, davidn.

[politicat]

12. Okay, I'm starting to think this may have something to do with Russia's depopulation problem.

The place to start is here: http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/article/drunken-nation-russia’s-depopulation-bomb

The tl;dr here is that the Russian population is not only not stable, it's falling fast, and within a very few years, will be in deep trouble, as in major skills and labor deficit. (Which fits with the surge in nationalism, homophobia and anti-feminism -- those seem to go with depopulation.) Russia is unique in the former Soviet states in that it remains in the same demographic pattern as a post-conflict state rather than having progressed through that to recovery. The author (pulling from UN Demography work) makes solid demographic comparisons to Sierra Leone and Liberia in terms of death patterns and maternal and infant mortality. If Brezhnev wasn't lying, then Russia now is in worse shape than the USSR was under Breshnev.

Ukraine has not entirely recovered, but was doing better, and more importantly, was increasing their technological and skilled labor base. Georgia, too, has been recovering in all the key factors. So is Estonia.

Right now, the only way Russia is surviving economically is by mining finite resources. Oil and gas is the only major export -- 70%. Arms are the majority of the rest, but they've been losing market share there. Otherwise, minimal industrial, raw materials, commodities, medicine, technology or knowledge. They've been disinvesting in education since 91. Their skilled engineering class is primarily a Soviet product, meaning that the youngest group is now in their 40s... And lifespan is running about 55 for men. They don't have enough coming up to maintain their current export-lifeblood.

They've been trying to hire in engineers from the former Bloc; it hasn't been working. So if they can't get them with salary...

[elehhhhna]

14. RUS co's hire oil/gas geoscientists & engineers from India, China, and Nigeria (as well as the US)

and in the case of Lukoil, opened an office in Houston that handles much of their international technical oil & gas work, because this is where the talent pool is.

[politicat]

17. Yes, but supply.

I know where they're hiring from, but the places they're recruiting now have their own resources so Russia is having to spend more for talent; immigrants/guest workers cause serious friction at home which (apparently) the current government feeds; and the language/culture barrier is itself a source of friction. One of my Rus history mentors used to say that the single most enduring trait of all Russian governments from Ivan I down was that Moscow (govt) must keep Moscow (city) happy, and when they screw that up is when revolutions happen, and consistently since then, one of the fastest ways to piss off Muscovites was to import talent, even if that talent was not physically in the city, or actually available amongst the population. (His point was Cossacks, German finance and science under Peter and Catherine, French just before the French Revolution got rolling.)

If the sanctions continue, that Houston office will probably be cordoned off. That's what happened with South African corporations and with Iranian corps after 79. If I notice it (and I'm just a stats person who dallies in historical demography and who happened to spend a few months in Kyev in the mid 90s) I'm sure that Russia's internal analysts already have much deeper trend work.

[elehhhhna]

18. Interesting info - thank you

I will defer to your obvious expertise versus my anecdata!

Q: What do you mean by "cordoned off" re: the Houston office?

[politicat]

20. Cordoned off...

Well... This isn't my area of expertise; what I've got is memories of reading the various journals that were common in base libraries (Foreign Policy, World Affairs, et cetera), understanding only part of them, some adult lay reading as my curiosity got the better of me, and many holiday dinner discussions as an adult because a sibling is deep into this scholarship.

So my understanding is that when the world placed sanctions on SA to end apartheid, the SA based diamond and gold corps we're forbidden to send proceeds back. (I was a child then, so I don't recall the exact mechanism, but IIRC, it was an international banking agreement that prohibited the distribution of funds into SA.) Aramco and British Petroleum (I think) had a major interest in Shah-era Iran; when those sanctions went into place, those companies had to essentially escrow the funds they would have sent into and earned from the post-revolutionary state or divest; the nationalization did the latter, but Iran had to raise their own engineering talent in a hurry afterwards and backwards engineer quite a lot of hardware they could no longer import.

I would bet that if the sanctions on Russia get more stringent, then their various oil companies operating in the rest of the world will be forced to either escrow their funds on the outside, or required to use them only outside the sanction zone; either way, no matter what they make working in Nigeria or Houston or wherever, those funds will be off limits to the Russian parent company, and thus, their stockholders and stakeholders. Even if only a fraction of their income is coming from these offshore operations, it will still hurt.

I've sent this question on to the sib who is working on zir poli Sci doctorate: zir area of focus is sanctions and the efficacy of financial pressure points for political solutions. When (or if - sib can be short on time) I get a response, I'll post it.

[elehhhhna]

40. and here we go

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10025526902#post7

[politicat]

41. Mmmm.... Yep, mostly, according to sib.

Zir comment was actually something like, woohoo! Somebody's willing to pay for my expertise! But essentially, zie is predicting (and is getting contacted by) the energy corps , who are expecting more of the same, plus.

[elehhhhna]

43. I'm shocked we'd do anything against any Exxon partners...

EX is perceived as its own country, basically, (for good reason) and RUS co's want to partner with them for the protection they offer from US AND especially Russian politics.

[cheapdate]

23. I highly doubt it.

Not only are there American warplanes in Estonia, there are German soldiers too. The British are conducting exercises with armor there next month, I believe. I highly doubt any shenanigans would get very far.

[Rex]

33. Depends on how far their dictator can fuel nationalism and hatred for minorities.

Seriously would not put anything past Emperor Pooter. Russia probed our airspace and flew basically anywhere they wanted to. I'm not sure they see us as a credible threat anymore. Maybe they think the terrorists did win. They also have China which is going to back them regardless of trade status.

Not like the Chinese seem very worried about us either.

[Anansi1171]

35. Maybe the Topol M missile launch, the repeated T-95 sorties

are not simply strategic posturing, but practical exercises?

[Tarheel_Dem]

36. He's playing a very dangerous game, despite what his "army of internet trolls" say to the contrary.

[CJCRANE]

42. It's a good job

there's an army of neocon apologists to counter them!

Whatever the case, the narrative is set for a new Cold War and we're just along for the ride.

The switchover is almost complete, now Kerry is freezing out Iran from the talks in Paris.