Russia Moves Tactical Nukes Closer to NATO. Gulp.

[grahamhgreen]

http://www.wired.com/2010/11/russia-moves-small-nukes-closer-to-europe-gulp/


As recently as this spring, the Russians have moved their tactical nukes to sites close to their Western frontiers, alarming the Baltic and Eastern European members of NATO, the Wall Street Journal reports. Russia’s longstanding position is that it won’t pull its tactical nuclear weapons behind the Ural Mountains until the U.S. gets its own small nukes out of Europe. True totals of Russian tactical nuclear weapons is a tightly-held secret, but the Federation of American Scientists estimated last year that Moscow has nearly 5,400 of them, with about 2,000 deployed.

The Russian nuke movement isn’t expressly forbidden by prior nuclear treaties; and the Journal notes that it “appeared to coincide” with the arrival of NATO missile defense systems near Russia’s European borders. At the NATO summit in Lisbon this month, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev endorsed building a joint NATO-Russia missile defense system over the next ten years — a big NATO priority — but warned that if “universal” missile defense couldn’t be fielded, a “new round of arms race will start.” So it’s tense, but it’s not necessarily time to dig out that old Sting song out of the record crates.

You sure you guys want to do this Ukraine thing?

[ladjf]

1. Putin is a dangerous reckless thug. Having said that,

I have no ideas about what could be done about him.

[Duckhunter935]

2. I do not think much can be done unless his own people

get fed up, but that is a long shot. He will just be a hypocrite and put down any uprising in his country like he did in Chechnya. But Ukraine can not do the same thing on it's territory.

[ladjf]

4. The political gossip from Russia seems to indicate that the majority

of Russians are pleased with Putin's bellicose behavior.

He seems intent on rebuilding the Soviet Union to it's former days of conquest. The question are, at what point would the rest of the World decide on a "tipping point"? Is he reckless and crazy enough to actually start using Russia's nuclear weapons? Is the World crazy enough to get into an all out nuclear war, assuring mutual destruction. In my opinion, yes.

If I were religious, I'd say , "God help us". Since I'm not I can only standby and hope that there are enough reasonable people in positions of power to figure out a less destruction way to counter this swashbuckling megalomaniac.

[stevenleser]

6. This is a generalized human failing to this point in our evolution.

We had the same thing in the US with Dumbya's invasion of Iraq. It's not until the negative after-effects of an illegal war hit that the majority of people in the offending country start to go sour on it.

I agree with the rest of your comments and this is why my opinion is that at the very beginning of the Crimean crisis, the US and NATO should have hit Russia with a total embargo and a ban on travel to NATO countries by Russians to make it start hurting immediately and set the precedent with non-military actions that we were not going to accept this kind of behavior with a clear implication that our next move was military. It's counter-intuitive, but I think strong decisive actions like this at the beginning have the best chance of deterring a dictator who desires further military conquest.

[TwilightGardener]

7. The only problem with your approach is, what happens if he isn't deterred

when you've pulled out your biggest non-military guns right at the start? Then it's either a war, or the West backs down. All of which would be a disaster. Angela Merkel didn't think, back in the spring, that Pootie was in touch with reality. So I don't know if you want someone like that to be challenged to a duel, with his manhood on the line. His popularity in Russia appears to be based on his image and his aggression--so it's proper to deter him in other ways he doesn't prefer (economically) and hope that the more rational educated people of Russia realize they're heading down a bad road. A squeeze instead of a punch. I should add: Putin doesn't want war. He wants to win with threats and unpunished aggression. He really is threatened by NATO, and is really mad that he lost control of Ukraine. So Western countries have to tread carefully.

[stevenleser]

8. If he wouldnt be deterred by that, he wouldn't be deterred by anything. The key is...

that Putin and the Oligarchs in Russia have completely idyllic and decadent lives that they very much want to continue. A nuclear war would wipe that kind of life out, even if you assume they have the most wonderful bomb shelters imaginable.

These guys very much want to live. You should check out their lifestyles. It would not continue in the aftermath of a nuclear war assuming they even survive. The lifestyles of the wealthy all over depend on the supply chain and infrastructure that currently exists continuing. They don't want to be out in the woods foraging for food without electricity, heat and running water.

The Russian economy would not handle well a total embargo by NATO countries. The oligarchs would put pressure on Putin to resolve the crisis. That is another part of the key and I think Obama understands this. Put pressure on the economic well being of the oligarchs and they will pressure Putin to knock it off.

We'll see what happens with this truce that has been signed between the government of Ukraine and the rebels. My sense is the rebels and Russia will use the truce to better supply the rebels with weapons and then resume the war.

[ladjf]

13. You present some very good analysis of Putin and his Oligarchs.

I hope you will continue to develop your thinking along those lines share your thoughts with us.

As an aside, your comment about "....Putin and the Oligarchs have a completely idyllic and decadent lives that they very much want to continue." made me think about the slave owning cotton planters in the Southern states who were raking in amazing amounts of money in the exportation of cotton during the 1850's. They were so caught up in their "idyllic" concepts that they were incapable of realizing that the Confederacy had no chance of winning the Civil War. The results of that bad thinking turned into the gravest catastrophe ever to strike the United States. But, I do digress.

[sub.theory]

11. It's starting to get scary...

It's clear Putin is playing for keeps and he will annex Eastern Ukraine like he did Crimea. Will he go after Western Ukraine next? Will he try for Estonia?

I'm fairly astonished at how reckless and dangerous he is being. He is clearly furious that his puppet government in Kiev fell, but his reaction has been astonishing.

It's starting to get scary...

He has to know that a war with the West will just result in everyone dead. Right?

[Nuclear Unicorn]

3. "You sure you guys want to do this Ukraine thing?"

A nuclear "heckler's veto"? It seems the message is the first person willing to threaten the most insane amount of force gets their way.

No. I'm not sure I "want to do this Ukraine thing" but that being said do we also want a world where every reckless power-monger gets his way? When does it stop? Here we are threatening economic sanctions and Putin responds with threats of nuclear weapons.

[TwilightGardener]

5. Russia's become a bigger, wealthier North Korea--kidnapping people, threatening nukes,

a constant ridiculous stream of propaganda fed to its people. Neither country should be appeased.

[amandabeech]

9. That's a very interesting description of Russia at this point.

But I can certainly understand what you mean. Russia added the kidnapping feature just recently.

Perhaps you've also seen the reports that Putin's sleep/wake cycle seems to be disturbed. He's awaking at noon, exercising for a goodly period, then meeting with his advisers. He gives speeches at 2 a.m. Now, I'm a real night owl, but working people not doing shift work don't usually get going in the afternoon. Putin also broke into tears during the Russian Anthem while he was in Mongolia.

I'm no psychologist, but sleep disturbances and very emotional reactions in public for a man ususally mean that something is going wrong in the mind. Perhaps Putin is really feeling a lot of stress. He's supposed to be very isolated, which is also bad. I'm wondering if he really isn't in complete control of himself.

[TwilightGardener]

10. I hadn't heard that news about his odd behavior, but yeah, it doesn't seem

he's a mentally healthy individual. We can only hope that there are saner people around him who can keep him from doing really crazy shit.

[amandabeech]

17. Absolutely. I hope that there is a Russian version of an "intervention"

before he really gets out of hand.

This thing with the Estonian border guard just screams "junior high." Perhaps you read Tom Clancy's book "Red October" or saw the excellent movie derived from the book. Remember the phrase "Crazy Ivan" used by the sonarmen to describe a particular Soviet submarine move? The Estonian border guard incident seems like another "Crazy Ivan." I just hope that Estonia and the West can negotiate his release before the Russians hurt him.

[grahamhgreen]

19. Why do you think we don't f#ck with NK? They have nukes, they will use them.

[TwilightGardener]

20. We don't fuck with them--but we also have troops in South Korea

Last edited Sun Sep 7, 2014, 05:07 PM - Edit history (1)

to prevent new hostilities. We don't fuck with Russia--but we participate in NATO and keep some forces in Europe. We don't fuck with China, but we keep troops in Japan, South Korea, and soon (again) the Phillippines. If we stopped doing these things, then Russia and China would very quickly assert themselves at their neighbors' expense, and things would get pretty ugly. Those who don't want the US to be a superpower, or don't want the West to prevail, also apparently don't have the imagination to see that the world would NOT be a better place with Russia and China in charge. But back to the matter at hand--issuing threats, especially nuclear threats, is the sign of a country that is insecure and in decline (China doesn't really do this, for example)--the answer is never to retreat from such threats, but to stand up to them in the most rational, non-escalating way possible.

[grahamhgreen]

21. We did. We cut off russia's access to Ukraine pipelines... that's what the Ukraine situation is all

about.

Then we started shipping our gas to Europe.

[TwilightGardener]

22. "We" cut off access to Ukraine's pipelines? How the hell did we accomplish that?

We can't get Afghanistan to pick a fucking President and stand on its own legs as a viable government. We couldn't get Maliki to side with us and stop falling under the influence of Iran, we couldn't make the Iraqi army competent. You are assuming wayy too much power on our part.

[n2doc]

12. Where are the oligarchs?

Quickest way to end this is to send the message that ALL of their assets will be confiscated if Putin starts a war with Europe. All their apartments, houses, yachts, bank accounts. All of it. Let them live on what they have if Russia if they stay silent.

They made him. I'll bet they can take him down too.

[conservaphobe]

14. Putin is sure he wants to do this Ukraine thing.

Putin is the one making threatening gestures with his nukes.

To blame this one on the evil West is almost as insulting as it is preposterous.

[Bosonic]

15. Article is dated nov 2010

[leftstreet]

16. Russia is big! They had to travel a long way!

[grahamhgreen]

18. That's right. Think they're there yet? We are playing with nuclear fire Here's an update from SEPT 1

http://www.newsweek.com/russia-has-threatened-nuclear-attack-says-ukraine-defence-minister-267842

Kiev has received threats of nuclear retaliation from Russia through unofficial channels if it continues to fight pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine, the Ukrainian Minister of Defence, Valeriy Heletey, announced on his Facebook page on Monday.

“The Russian side has threatened on several occasions across unofficial channels that, in the case of continued resistance they are ready to use a tactical nuclear weapon against us,” Heletey’s statement reads.

The minister goes on to say that Russia’s “hybrid war” in Ukraine is at an end, accusing the Kremlin of attempting a “full-scale invasion”. Heletey called for all Ukrainian forces to “consolidate” and “begin building defences against Russia,” insisting today “the operation to liberate the Eastern Ukraine against terrorism is complete”.

Note their use of the same terrorist rhetoric we get here.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

23. The Russia vs The West pissing contest continues.