republican think tank head cautions not to back Putin into a corner

[pampango]

When Sanctions Lead to War

The United States and Europe have until now relied almost exclusively on the threat of severe economic sanctions to prevent a Russian invasion of Ukraine. But sanctions — even crippling ones — won’t necessarily avert this.

Washington has not tried to compel another major power with sanctions since 1940-41, when America imposed them on Imperial Japan, culminating in an oil embargo and the seizure of Japanese assets in July 1941. At that time, the United States sought to deter Japan from seizing Southeast Asia and demanded that Tokyo withdraw from Indochina and China. Japan in turn concluded that American sanctions made the occupation of Southeast Asia essential, as well as the devastation of the United States Navy.

This history has present-day implications. Harsh economic sanctions against Russia are unlikely to deter an invasion without an unambiguous warning that the United States will ensure Moscow’s defeat. If Russia does intervene, it will do so expecting even harsher sanctions and may see them as an act of war. Like Imperial Japan, Moscow might conclude that it is irresponsible to wait for new sanctions to gut the Russian economy before taking further military action to break the West’s will.

One way to challenge the West would be to invade Estonia or Latvia. As far-fetched as it may seem, some angry Russian politicians are already discussing this idea. To the Kremlin, European states look like a collection of struggling economies that couldn’t sustain a bombing campaign against Libya and routinely refuse to provide bases or troops to NATO. How would they react to the invasion of a small Baltic nation?

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/22/opinion/when-sanctions-lead-to-war.html

Apparently the author served in the State Department during Bush's first term.

While Russia certainly has a military advantage in the area of the countries that border it, it is hard to believe that Putin would decide that an early military strike - like the Japanese on Pearl Harbor - to avoid further economic sanctions that would damage their economy later on, is likely in the modern world.

[Historic NY]

1. Really no evidence that sanctions in the modern times leads to war...

Iran has been one country which has had assests seized. They do put pressure on the country as supplies dwindle and finances shrink. Russia got along after the fall of the Soviet state, if things got so bad it would revert to it past to service the state.

[TheKentuckian]

3. I'm not sure there is much support that it doesn't either. They aren't placed on countries

that could effectively wage war on those imposing the sanctions as a response.

Russia ain't Iran, Iraq, or South Africa.

[CJCRANE]

2. No evidence that Russia wants to invade another country.

More scaremongering and warmongering.

Neocon Redux.