You can whine about this, or you can give money/work your ass off to change it

[Algernon Moncrieff]

Last edited Wed Aug 6, 2014, 10:22 AM - Edit history (1)

Nate is almost always right, so it's your call:

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/nate-silver-gop-60-percent-change-winning-senate

In his latest forecast, statistics whiz Nate Silver gives Republicans a roughly 60 percent chance of winning control of the Senate in the November elections.

"Summing the probabilities of each race yields an estimate of 51 seats for Republicans. That makes them very slight favorites — perhaps somewhere in the neighborhood of 60-40 — to take control of the Senate, but also doesn't leave them much room for error," Silver wrote at FiveThirtyEight on Monday.

[Bluenorthwest]

1. Perspective 'almost always right' is based on two presidential cycles in which he was accurate. Two.

On Congressional races he has a good track record, but certainly it does not rate as 'almost always right'.
When you have done something twice are you even allowed to use words like 'almost always' in regard to that something? Isn't more accurate to say 'I've done this twice so far and it went well both times' than 'I'm almost always right'?
What's his actual rate of accuracy in Congressional races? Do you know? How is he not just Jimmy the Greek with a penchant for punditry?

[Algernon Moncrieff]

2. Silver has always used good methodology and is non-partisan

I don't have a link to his past midterm cycles. I do have a link where he explains the strengths and weaknesses of calling this particular outcome, and it's here:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/fivethirtyeight-senate-forecast-toss-up-or-tilt-gop/

[Drunken Irishman]

3. One thing with Senate predictions is that the margins are very small.

If Silver has Republicans winning 51 seats, and that's where he gets his 60%, that's just one seat - and my guess, he has Grimes losing to McConnell (which I think is very possible)...since Biden would be the tie-breaker.

Flip one of those seats he has going Republican and the dynamics shift so quickly that it instantly becomes a Democratic chamber (barely, but barely counts here).

[Algernon Moncrieff]

4. Silver essentially says that

In a related article, he talks about the reduced polling reliability in these races.

I read this to mean we can keep the Senate with work.

[MineralMan]

5. If Democrats don't GOTV, he'll be correct.

If we do, he'll be way wrong. Nothing is inevitable in mid-term elections. GOTV makes all the difference. Each of us can affect the election through GOTV efforts. If we do, we'll have earned what we get. If we don't, we'll have abandoned the nation to the Republicans.

I know what my choice is:

GOTV 2014 and Beyond!

[Algernon Moncrieff]

6. Agree 100%.

I'll go further: GOTV and I really think we can still flip the House

[MineralMan]

7. So do I. The House is in play, if we GOTV in an amazing way.

I think we could do it. I worry that we won't, though. I'll do my best.

[pstokely]

8. How accurate has he been at predicting November elections in August?

We'll know more about Labor Day when more people start paying attention, Dems chances may improve or get worse, GOTV is the key

[Algernon Moncrieff]

9. I e-mailed Mr. Silver. I'll let you know what he says. (nt)

[steve2470]

10. kick and rec ! nt

[KitSileya]

11. Very interesting post, but would you mind editing your headline?

You could use complain/moan/gripe/grumble/bellyache/grouse/wail/yammer/whine/fuss/crab or a number of other words, you don't need to use the gendered slur.

[RandiFan1290]

12. The Democrats will win in a landslide!

We always hear from the brilliant 'moderates' on DU that the Democrats are not allowed to investigate or obstruct the 'publicons because they will lose elections as a result. After 6 years of straight obstruction and bullshit investigations we can be assured that the Democrats will sweep this November!

I'm confident that the moderates will show up in large numbers to punish the obstructionists!

[Cha]

13. Kick!