If We Release a Small Fraction of Arctic Carbon, 'We're F'd': Climatologist

[flamingdem]

http://motherboard.vice.com/en_ca/read/if-we-release-a-small-fraction-of-arctic-carbon-were-fucked-climatologist

This week, scientists made a disturbing discovery in the Arctic Ocean: They saw "vast methane plumes escaping from the seafloor," as the Stockholm University put it in a release disclosing the observations. The plume of methane—a potent greenhouse gas that traps heat more powerfully than carbon dioxide, the chief driver of climate change—was unsettling to the scientists.

But it was even more unnerving to Dr. Jason Box, a widely published climatologist who had been following the expedition. As I was digging into the new development, I stumbled upon his tweet, which, coming from a scientist, was downright chilling:

Jason Box @climate_ice
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If even a small fraction of Arctic sea floor carbon is released to the atmosphere, we're f'd.
8:43 AM - 29 Jul 2014 Copenhagen, Danmark

"Even if a small fraction of the Arctic carbon were released to the atmosphere, we're fucked," he told me. What alarmed him was that "the methane bubbles were reaching the surface. That was something new in my survey of methane bubbles," he said.

"The conventional thought is that the bubbles would be dissolved before they reached the surface and that microorganisms would consume that methane, and that's normal," Box went on. But if the plumes are making it to the surface, that's a brand new source of heat-trapping gases that we need to worry about.

[magical thyme]

1. I'm confused. How does this differ from the plumes of methane clathrates that already

were discovered in the arctic a few years back and have been monitored. Up to 1/2 mile or so wide plumes...

[flamingdem]

2. Not sure but this article is dated August 1, 2014

[magical thyme]

4. I saw that date and read the article.

It reads like the methane clathrates I first read about some 5 or 6 years ago, but suggests it is something new.

I'm not questioning that it is something new. Just don't know how it differs from the earlier discoveries.

[flamingdem]

5. It might be about the Mega Flare

In his words, "We are “sniffing” methane. We see the bubbles on video from the camera mounted on the CTD or the Multicorer. All analysis tells the signs. We are in a Mega flare. We see it in the water column we read it above the surface an we follow it up high into the sky with radars and lasers. We see it mixed in the air and carried away with the winds. Methane in the air."
Source: http://polar.se/en/blogg/mega-flare/

this blog explains what they're recording a bit more:

http://climatechangepsychology.blogspot.com/

[magical thyme]

7. so after some googling, I'm guessing that what is new is the measurement and evidence

that confirms the source of the methane.

I have a tendency to jump ahead to the final analysis, so since the initial discovery of the plumes I've figured we're already in runaway climate change. Everything else is just detail...

[flamingdem]

8. Plus I think that those involved will use new aspects of their discoveries

as breaking news to wake people up.

And as you note, to the observer what is detail is a proof to science minds requiring measurement to be able to be sure-sure.

[WinkyDink]

3. See: Mysterious Siberian Holes. (Yeah, yeah: "sinkholes." Don't panic!)

[Louisiana1976]

28. Yes. Those are intriguing. Curiouser and curiouser.

[L0oniX]

41. New movie Idea ...all of (name your city of choice) falls into a sink hole.

[ClarkeVII]

6. Scariest part is...

this native Coloradian has relocated to northern Europe because of climate change fears.

[flamingdem]

9. What is the outlook for Colorado?

.. no wonder people are staying high there if it's doom

[hankthecrank]

10. So we going to get more carbon

How about we tackle the problem the other way

Start by finding more ways to use carbon

Or more ways to tie up carbon in non releasable process

[n2doc]

11. In other words, we're F----

Because we aren't doing anywhere near enough to cut CO2 and other GG emissions. Too much money to be made by greedy old men who will be dead long before the worst hits.

I keep saying, people who can prepare, do so. Because it is likely to go bad in a hurry when all the dominos fall.

[flamingdem]

12. If we could see the headlines ten years from now

maybe the necessary changes would be made.

Otherwise it's just react and adjust. I agree it won't be pretty.

[Louisiana1976]

29. I do, too.

[alfredo]

15. bush saw the melting of the arctic as good for business.

[n2doc]

26. Everything is an opportunity to make money for some folks n/t

[Louisiana1976]

30. True. Gimme! Gimme! Gimme!

[alfredo]

33. Most capitalist now only think quarter to quarter.

[CrispyQ]

39. Foolish seventh generation thinkers. There's money to be made!

We're so fucked.

[alfredo]

43. They live in air conditioned comfort, they see no problem.

[L0oniX]

42. ALERTING! ...for using the word "folks".

[truedelphi]

13. Siberian methane sinkholes and the methane release is being discussed as well.

TS Elliot once asked how the world would go out - With a bang or a whimper?

Looks like it will be a bit of both.

[Garthem]

14. The Beaches of Boston are Shrinking

I've lived here 18 years, and have seen with my own eyes the water levels rising. I strongly suspect we're already fucked!

[alfredo]

18. I think parts of the east coast is dropping too.

I haven't found much on it other than rebounding from the forcing down the earth under glaciers and the rebound of the ballooning up of land south of the glaciers. (like pushing on a balloon)


Is there a geologist in the house?

[Louisiana1976]

31. Some time ago I read a sci-fi short story set in a town in Massachusetts that was sinking.

There was water in the streets and the woman who was the protagonist used a boat to go everywhere.

[alfredo]

34. Sounds like parts of Miami.

[IrishAyes]

16. Well, even 20 years ago I was reading from the social scientists that

the next big migration would be to the Midwest. Would be surprised to see that, with the west and southwest entering a severe drought period expected to last decades or longer. That's one reason I bought here for retirement - it's the lowest population county in the state with the largest land area, but mainly because the entire town, tiny though it is, sits 850' above sea level and 300' above the nearest river. We're already losing population, though, because if you don't own a big farm you're basically screwed. Although food stamp use has been reported sinking slowly in some places, here it's been rising. I was able to buy a house for $14.5K which though in terrible repair would've cost a minimum quarter mil some place like San Francisco. Any day now I expect to see one of those signs on the highway reading, Will The Last Person Leaving Please Turn Out the Lights?

Of course all that could change when all of California finally burns to the ground and the 3 coasts sink even lower. Already in Norfolk VA. I read (for what it's worth) that vehicle travel is impossible even in town during high tide. Even if that's not really true yet, it soon will be. We'd better be asking the Dutch to teach us how to build better sea walls.

[tclambert]

19. Seawalls can't save Florida. The rock under it is porous.

The water will seep up inside even if we keep the waves and tide out.

[IrishAyes]

20. Yeah, but it would be nice if Newark and NYC could be saved.

People who move to Florida are just begging for sharknado! If the boa constrictors, alligators, and giant poisonous toads don't get 'em first.

[flamingdem]

23. You want to save Newark?

That wouldn't be my first choice.

[IrishAyes]

24. Did I say Newark??!

I meant to say Norfolk.

Regardless, any place is better than Florida. You couldn't give me that place free on a silver platter. Not my kind of real estate, and they're overrun with conservative retirees too. I might've liked it better a hundred years ago.

[flamingdem]

22. In spite of this condo tower sales and construction is at an all time high

?? Boggles the brain

[n2doc]

27. Next Hurricane Andrew is going to wake some folks up big time n/t

[lordsummerisle]

35. Your post

Would make more sense if you said where you are...

[IrishAyes]

38. Where I am is out of reach of stalkers.

I DON'T MEAN YOU! But really, no woman in her right mind gives her location unless it's a big city where she'd never be found, such as NYC, Boston, L.A. etc.

And yes, I have been stalked. So I just indicate a remote tiny town in the Midwest. I suppose Sherlock Holmes could figure it out from the described topography and a few other clues I don't realize I've dropped, but thank goodness he's not after me. I use a VPN for many reasons.

[Enthusiast]

17. Oh, we're fucked alright.

On several fronts, we are fucked. Climate change is only one way.

[MH1]

21. 'We're F'd'. Period. - MH1, not a climatologist.

To be more precise, future generations are f'd, beginning sometime between now and 50 years from now.

In my non-scientific but awake and observing opinion.


Item 1: Population.

Item 2: Resource depletion.

Item 3: ever increasing access by the masses to ever more destructive technologies.

Item 4: oh yeah, climate change.


Conflicts brought about by the combination of Items 1 and 2 (note: these are already well underway in many regions of the world, as you know if you watch the news even occasionally) will be exacerbated by Item 3, probably resulting in catastrophe for relatively large segments of humanity before Item 4 really kicks us in the ass. However, should we fail to accomplish said catastrophe before reaching Item 4, don't worry, it's there waiting for us.

[Louisiana1976]

32. Exactly. I don't envy today's kids because og the earth they're going to inherit.

[Uncle Joe]

25. Kicked and recommended.

Thanks for the thread, flamingdem.

[airplaneman]

36. Get familiar wit AMEG

I think they are CORRECT on what we need to do NOW to prevent our demise.
I'm reading there are some scientists that believe we have about 25 years or about 2040 before we are all dead from runaway climate change. Yes its happening in the Arctic NOW.

http://ameg.me/

-Airplane

[CrispyQ]

40. Some people arrogantly think humans will never go extinct because of our big brain.

I've read it on DU, even. Our big brain got us into this mess. Our "we can live outside of nature," and "we control our own reality" attitudes will be our demise.

From your link:

There is no excuse for procrastination. We must see action now

[flamingdem]

44. Thanks for this link

[geomon666]

37. I wonder how many other species we're going to take down with us.

50, maybe 80%? Maybe more? Last one left, don't worry about turning the lights off. They'll be underwater or under a constant blanket of dust and sand as we all collectively flush this experiment known as humanity down the toilet.