What would it take for the GOP to lose the House?

[Cyrano]

I have no idea what heinous act Republicans would have to commit to persuade a significant portion of their base to turn against them.

Consider that elected Republicans have: Targeted children at the border with hate and rage; Refused to provide basic health care in states they control; Refused to raise the minimum wage; Ignored our dangerously crumbling infrastructure; Refused to rectify a SCOTUS decision that affects freedom of religion; Done everything possible to turn women into chattel; and so much more.

I’d venture to say that most of these things disproportionately affect a fairly large portion of their base. Exactly how dense are these voters? How horrendous would an act have to be before these voters became disgusted? I have no idea.

I know that much of their base consists of low information voters who are easily enraged. Nonetheless, their must be some line that cannot be crossed. What would that line be? Eating live babies? I just don’t know.

[unblock]

1. the next census.

[abakan]

2. A Miracle...nt

[jberryhill]

3. Attempting to persuade people other than the choir

...and doing so without insulting the people one is trying to persuade.

[Xyzse]

15. Absolutely agreed. Completely...

[lovemydog]

43. Agree one hundred percent.

I'd also add, an economic populist agenda that is positive. On a personal note, some disgruntled republicans might read here. I welcome them to consider a more progressive agenda. It's really good for our country. It's also good for them as individuals & families. Consider voting for democrats if they care to keep more of their hard-earned money. Force large corporations & billionaire tax cheaters to shoulder their tax responsibilities. We need all the votes we can get.

[madokie]

4. Democrats to get off their asses and vote

Pretty simple solution to this problem, GOTV

[gordianot]

5. They have nearly perfected the art of Gerrymandering.

It takes less votes to elect a Republican than it takes to elect a Democrat.

[madokie]

12. Yea be we have a pretty good lead on them if we'll get them to all vote

Its not undoable by any stretch
I remember about 6 years ago that 'they' were telling us that BHO had no more than a snow balls chance in hell of ascending to the oval office. We pulled that one off with a comfortable lead best I remember, twice actually.

They in all this is the republiCON spinmeisters

[TheKentuckian]

37. Do you believe we actually have an advantage in those gerrymandered districts though?

The over vote in metros and some states around the country doesn't help. In other words is that raw numbers advantage widely distributed enough to carry the day?

To be honest, I'm doubtful that is the case. We are in many cases self gerrymandering by location. Yarmuth might win Louisville by 20 points but that doesn't carry over to the next district, the raw vote just doesn't mean so much in 535 local races.
Our ability to pick up seats is a district by district question, which means looking at those individual races and flipping them rather than raw turnout.

Also, some of the numbers are phantom for all intents and purposes. You can only put so much into party ID because states like my own Kentucky and Oklahoma have ID advantage in spades but here it does not translate at all into votes for Federal office because we are essentially a Democratic machine state and for local offices, if you wish to participate in the primary you have to be a Democrat but you can bet your ass that many of these folks will never vote for a Democrat for national office even if they also never vote for a Republican locally (ie we have only had TWO TERMS of a Republican in the governor's mansion since reconstruction but will overwhelmingly send idiots like Rand Paul, Mitch McConnell, and Jim Bunning to Washington and will vote for almost any Republican for President).

I suspect Oklahoma is similar and we probably aren't the only ones in the country that are so functionally odd.

I think turnout is key but far less of a magic bullet than many make out.

What does it take to flip the House is better answered by how do we flip this race and this one and that one over there. GOTV is always going to be a part of the answer but in almost every case, only a part and when faced with the actual dynamic it seems like we get too deep into the weeds with way too many balls in the air for most folks to process. Folks like simple and easy and overcoming the current level of gerrymandering, sleazy election officials, and cheating computers isn't a one line or a single word solution.

Most of us can GOTV till the cows come home and it makes little effective difference, we are in blue districts and so what tends to happen is we are just running up the score in a game already won.

[Cyrano]

40. What we need is a few million martyrs to

move into red districts countrywide. Future generations would build monuments to them.

[TheKentuckian]

42. Yep, in an organized fashion. Too willy nilly and safe districts become dicey and no impact is made

The Senate is easier, a few million in the right states maybe even just hundreds of thousands could make TeaPubliKlan control nearly impossible.

Take the Dakotas, Wyoming, Montana, Idaho, Utah off the table and the path becomes very tough. They make too much hay off of a bunch of states with minimal population.
This would also force some general moderation as effort would have to be put into saner states instead of a bunch of gimmies that are loon tolerant.

[BillZBubb]

6. A Miracle

With Citizens United, Fox News, republican gerrymandering, and electronic voting, the Democrats chances of taking the House are slim to none.

[IADEMO2004]

7. The Rapture in October

and GOP voters discover that Jesus thinks they are assholes. They could then try the born-again thing one more time to get it right(Left).

[MineralMan]

8. A strong GOTV effort by all of us.

That would do it.

GOTV 2014 and Beyond!

[jwirr]

26. This at least gives us a chance - if we stay home because it is impossible then it is our own fault.

[brooklynite]

9. I've talked to 20 or so D candidates for Congress...

....not one (up to Steve Israel) will say they think we can take the House back this year.

Most don't think it'll happen until redistricting.

Another reason I don't understanding all the "moneybombing" Alan Grayson has been doing here. He's sitting in a safe district and is sucking up money that could go the holding the Senate or winning back Governorships we'll need to protect the 2016 vote.

[Cyrano]

13. I agree, but that's

not the question I'm actually asking in the OP. I'm asking what it would take for their low-information voters to finally catch on?

[sinkingfeeling]

10. About 50% of the people to wake the hell up.

[Johonny]

19. +1

I have no respect for a GOP voter. How can you listen to these people running for office had respect them. They are beyond stupid, cold, and useless and yet far too many Americans will happily vote them in to do more of the nothing they are doing now.

[Cyrano]

24. This is exactly what I'm talking about in the OP.

I have no idea what it takes to make those voters understand how badly they're getting screwed.

[Johonny]

31. I read facebook posts

Where GOP voters lament that welfare pays better than many jobs these days. They think the solution is to eliminate welfare rather than to increase worker's wage. I start to see the fact many GOP voters have woken up. They get the issues. They just think the solutions are to write off whole parts of society. They just want the poor to suffer low wages and to not have welfare or health care. They think tough love is a solution that makes the country better. They are people that lack empathy for other human beings. They are a lot like the people in the GOP running for office. The scary fact becomes clear that their are a lot of heartless voters that seem to enjoy screwing people over without the ability to place themselves in other peoples shoes or to realize that they already wear those shoes. They screw themselves not seeing that the policies of the GOP don't discriminate amongst the 99%.

I have no idea what percentage of GOP voters this is but more and more I think it is nearly all of them left registered Republican. The empathetic ones, the Christians, the intelligent etc... have either given up voting or stopped voting for the GOP. They've created the mythical Teaparty other or the Libertarian other (which are just more GOP) and convinced themselves these people are a better options. They aren't and so down the conservatives go in a death spiral where the last option (voting for a liberal) is never considered because they seem to think they can't consider it. If they vote for a liberal then wages will rise and then Welfare won't seem so bad...

[hollysmom]

11. I keep hoping that republicans out there with a working concience

will just walk away and become independents. seriously, how do they keep straight faces. I discuss things in a small political group which has both liberals and conservatives - there is one republican who makes reasonable comments and crosses the party line a lot lately, but there are three who mouth the party line and complain we are bullying when we confront them with facts. We were discussing climate change and one conservative bemoaned that she just wanted the facts - now it is a very treat us like children no bashing or hinting at an insult of the other person which allows this forum to exist. It is so hard to reply sometimes without prefacing with you idiot. I don't want to destroy the forum because some will explain how their minds kind of work and it is fascinating and you can get someone to talk themselves into a corner for fun.

[Wounded Bear]

14. Repubs in Congress to work with the President on something...

[longship]

16. Start with a Democratic Party fifty state strategy.

That was one of the many things that we got right in the past. Howard Dean was a great DNC chair.

[lpbk2713]

17. Keep drumming the message the GOP has always been FOR big business ...

and totally AGAINST mainstream America. They have the track record for all to see.

[jamzrockz]

18. Smarter D candidates

People like Alan Grayson running in every house of rep election.

[Cyrano]

21. I'm not so sure

From what I've seen, Grayson enrages Republicans the same way that Ted Cruz enrages us. Although I like Grayson, he appeals to the Dem base but not beyond.

[HooptieWagon]

20. A miracle.

Dems will be doing well to keep current #s or pick up a couple seats. '16 will be a better bet, but thats still a longshot. Need the new census and redistricting to get some competitive districts... most of them now are gerrymandered into safe seats.

[Cyrano]

22. That gerrymandering seems to ensure that

after the next census, it will still be Republicans doing the redistricting.

[HooptieWagon]

27. Depends on state legislatures.

They draw up the districts. Dems need to control a few more state houses, and have legal teams standing by, before 2020 consus.

[0rganism]

23. They've got a lock for the next 8 years i figure

i really think it'll take one or more census cycles to shift the balance back our way again

in 2020, a presidential year, we have a decent chance of winning enough state legislatures to undo some of the savage redistricting that happened in swing states in 2010. Michigan and Pennsylvania, in particular, need some serious un-gerrymandering.

Once that happens, the 2022 elections will present a real opportunity for Democrats to win back the house. Let's hope we don't fuck it up with low turnout due to an anemic demotivating presidency.

[Samantha]

25. Democratic opponents would have to win by 7 points or more

in gerrymandered districts.

Sam

[Proud Public Servant]

28. Democrats need to move

The gerrymandering is an issue, but so too is the demographic trend of Democratic voters living in tighter clusters -- cities, mostly -- than GOP voters. As a result, Dems tend to win blue congressional districts by a much higher margin that the GOP wins red districts. That's in part gerrymandering, but it's also in part self-selecting (and I'll admit I cannot envision ever living in a red district or even a red state, so I guess I'm part of the problem).

[Savannahmann]

29. Well let's see.

Let's start simple. Minimum wage. Support for increasing the minimum wage falls off when you point out that the GAO said half a million jobs would be lost. Support for the higher minimum wage falls to below forty percent then, which is just below where President Obama is now. Perhaps it's a result of the Propaganda about fighting the Job Killing Minimum Wage Hike. Propaganda that got a big boost from the GAO who said an estimated half million jobs would be lost.

Polling shows that people want answers to the immigration problem. Biggest group favors deportation and stopping the flow. But hey, those people probably think it's all the Rethugs fault. Or not.

Obamacare? 55% of the people oppose it. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/obama_and_democrats_health_care_plan-1130.html

Now, on to SCOTUS. How do you overturn it? It requires a Constitutional Amendment, or another suit arguing that the sitting Justices were wrong. That takes years, and there is no way anyone is going to put forth a constitutional amendment overturning Citizens United.

So the Rethugs are on the populist side of several issues. Israel, the polling shows that most people blame Hamas, and more of the people support Israel.

Not to worry, they will all be convinced that they are wrong by shouting at them and calling them idiots.

So what is the point? Talking to the people and convincing them of your ideals. GOTV for the sake of GOTV hurts us. We won't win the House. We won't win seats in the Senate. We won't win a majority of Governor's races. We'll be lucky to hold onto a bare majority of Senate Seats. The reason is that people are not impressed by clever little pictures with propaganda text on it. They are impressed by that only if they already feel that way. A Picture of Miami with the tagline Miami greatest city in the world will get good responses, in Miami. In New York, not so much.

FDR proposed things that nobody had considered, and nobody had thought about. Lend Lease for example. He explained what he wanted to do, and then told the people why. Truman and JFK were the same way. They told the people what they wanted, and why, and convinced the people. JFK's moon speeches are awesome. They inspired the entire nation. He outlined the goal, the way we would achieve it, and then told the people all the problems we faced in trying to achieve it.

By contrast, President Obama goes out and gives a grand vision. Instead of calling on people to flood congress with phone calls and mail in support of his program, he says that he can't do anything because the Rethugs oppose it. So he doesn't propose any definite action, just vague things and says nothing can happen because of the Rethugs. JFK would have gone out and gotten the people inspired.

And you can't tell me that political opposition is the brick wall. Ronald Reagan went on TV and told the people his view on taxes. The Rising tide lifts all ships speech. People all over the nation flooded congress with phone calls and letters. A congress in which both houses were Democratic. Tip O'Neil was the Speaker in those days.

By the same token, W called on immigration reform, and the public buried Washington in bricks. He didn't convince them, Reagan did.

You can't treat the voters like children, telling them that they are going to do this because you said so. That moves more people in opposition to you. You have to tell them why, they aren't employees, nor subjects, nor minions who exist only to do your bidding.

If you want them to vote for you, you have to tell them why. Arguing that they are idiots who vote with the 1% is not getting you anywhere. If it got you somewhere, we would be sitting pretty right now looking at winning the House and Senate handily. Instead, we are looking at losing the one, and moving to an even smaller minority in the other. Stop calling the voters racists when they oppose you. Listen to them, talk to them, and convince them. Yes, a minority of the Rethug voters are Racist, but it is a very small minority. Most of them are insulted by the way we talk to them, or should I say at them.

If they are not motivated by race, calling them racists is insulting and they will reject any further argument that you have to make. They just won't listen. Democrats have to learn to talk to people again. This lost art is not something we can just ignore. We have become little more than cheerleaders. Our team rules, and we're going to win the Homecoming game. Yay team.

Tell them what we believe, and why. Give them speeches and positions that argue our point. Put legislation forward in the public eye that addresses these problems.

Start arguing that we can do things without raising taxes. We'll cut the money from the NSA and use it to fix the bridges and highways. That's a populist two for the price of one. It cuts the spying on the citizens, and addresses the infrastructure. It puts Republicans on the stage either agreeing to reign in the NSA, or shouting that the war on terror means no one, except them, can have privacy. But we don't want that, because we are afraid. We're afraid of getting blamed if or should I say when there is another attack. So despite the fact that we haven't stopped one damned thing, we're going to keep throwing money into the furnace of the furnace burning hot with National Insecurity on the side.

Companies are moving to Europe, which had higher taxes. Now, how can Britain have lower taxes, and yet still have good highways, good bridges, and national health care? The answer? They don't fund the massive Military Intelligence Industrial Cabal.

But instead of looking at these issues and proposing solutions. We shout that GOTV is the answer. We come up with pity slogans, which get great responses from our friends. They don't convince anyone to join us, but we can increase the us versus them rhetoric a bit.

Honestly, I'm about ready to just walk away. I'm so sick and tired of posting the same things over and over again. I'm tired of sending emails and letters to the White House. I'm tired of writing congress and telling them what the people think. I'm tired of bashing my head on the wall as we continue to degenerate and de-evolve. The rethugs have a message, they oppose the job killing insert program here. Our message is that Rethugs suck, and while we suck too, we don't suck nearly as bad as they do. But our message is we won't do a damned thing until we have a majority in both houses. The truth is that everyone in Congress is viewed unfavorably by people who are not in their districts. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/congressional_job_approval-903.html

Latest poll, 7% approval rating. But nearly all of the congress critters are going to be re-elected. So what the public is saying is I like my congressman, but your congressman sucks. Why don't you change yours.

Why? Because the Representatives play to the voters in their districts. They play to the voters they answer to. So shouting that Paul Ryan is an ass doesn't make a bit of difference, because his district is sending him back to Washington. When the candidate doesn't win, it's usually in the primary that the incumbent loses. I may not like several congress critters, and thinking of them I once suggested we pick people at random like jury duty to do one term in congress and then come home. I figured we couldn't do any worse picking names out of the phone book than we could with elections. The point is I don't have any say in any district but the one I live in.

We'll probably lose the senate. Because what we've done is insult the voters, bellowed at them, and ignored them. Instead of trying to find some common ground with Rethugs, for the pretense of an effort at Bipartisanship, we refuse to agree that day is light and night is dark. It's a pox on both our houses. Only the Rethugs are reading the polling information and adjusting their message for the will of the people.

[Cyrano]

32. Here's the thing

Even if the Dems could come up with inspiring messages, they would never be heard. John McCain or Ted Cruz merely have to cut a fart to get coverage. The only coverage Dems get are on MSNBC and liberal websites.

Nonetheless, the crux of my OP is: "What does it take to get through to people who seem to be living in 'The Matrix?'" I don't believe that we can wake them up regardless of what we say or how nicely we say it.

Yet, no matter how much the GOP craps on their base, that base still votes for them. It seems to me that even a semi-sentient being would catch on at some point.

[Savannahmann]

45. 70% of the people blame Hamas for the Israeli situation.

So you have a choice. You can explain to the people that you believe Hamas is not to blame, or you can call them a bunch of idiots.

Historically, people would discuss the issue. Now, we just call anyone who disagrees with us an bunch of idiots. Then we act surprised when they don't come out and vote for us.

People don't support a Minimum wage hike that causes the loss of half a million jobs. What do we do? We ignore that part of the poll, and point to the question above it. We call anyone who objects to a Minimum wage hike a greedy bastard. But there is a point. In 1985 I got my first job, for less than Minimum wage, under the Reagan training plan that allowed people to get paid less than minimum wage to get training. For one hundred hours I got $2.85 an hour instead of $3.35. I worked fast food. I was the guy who fried the burgers, filled the cups with ice and drink. I shook fries and dropped more into the vat of bubbling oil. I did it all.

Now, look behind the counter. There is a machine that drops the cup into a holder and swings it around to be filled with ice and drink. A lousy job? Sure. No way to live on the wage? Absolutely not. But it was a line on the application for the next job. Now, those jobs are gone. A machine dispenses drink. A machine does welding that humans used to do. A machine was cheaper in the long run, and will continue getting cheaper. Meet the first of the new generation. Baxter

&feature=youtu.be

See the big red machine? It's taking a job that a human used to have. With the advances in computers, and programming, such designs are getting cheaper all the time. But wait, there is no way that some jobs will be replaced right? I mean, how about working huge machines like they have at ports. Those jobs will never go away.

But not to worry, because they'll never take the place of whatever. In another generation jobs will be management, repair of the robots, and perhaps some sort of housekeeping. We should be talking about this. Instead, we're dumb enough to fight it, like we can hold progress back by wishful thinking. Cheaper, faster, and doesn't call in sick. The big bosses dream. I would say look at being a driver, but with Google making cars that drive themselves, we'll be out of that job too.

So why aren't we discussing the education we need to give our children today to get them ready for the workforce of tomorrow? Why aren't we talking about revamping the educational system to give us a chance to get into the forefront of the trend?

Because we don't care. We don't care what happens to our children. So long as we win the election. We'll worry about that later, much later. We'll blame the Rethugs if something happens. Greedy bastards firing humans to get the job done cheaper and all that.

The Rethugs are reading the polls, and crafting their message to appeal to the issues the people care about. Economy is a big one, so the Rethugs promise to fight the job killing whatever. We read the polls, and decide that people are idiots and we should ignore them. If JFK had done that we'd still be flinging tiny capsules into space as part of the Mercury program.

JFK went out and told the world why Missiles in Cuba were bad, and we considered it unacceptable. The public got behind him. He explained what he believed, and what he wanted, and asked for their support. He got their support. Nixon promised peace with honor, and talked about peace treaties and all that. The public supported him. Look at history. Some of the biggest things done were done after the public was informed about what, and why.

Churchill's speeches were examples of inspiration. No one else could have rallied the British People the way he did. Anyone else would have had doubts, and those doubts would have come out in the speeches, and the people would have picked up on those fears. Instead the Fire Wardens braved the bombs to stand on rooftops to call out fires in London. People kept signing up to go to sea on merchant ships to bring vitally needed food and supplies despite the very real risk of death. Because they knew Britain would win, and they knew that Churchill believed it with all his heart.

Stop calling our opponents idiots. Even I call them Rethugs, but I should stop too. When they oppose the job killing minimum wage, they're playing to populist pressure, we need to explain what we believe will happen, and we need to be real, genuine, and we need to care. We have to stop the political games, and start to talk to the people, and listen to them. Town Hall meetings need to be ramped up and taken on. Yes, they're going to have instigators in the crowd, so what? Answer them, tell the people the truth, tell them the facts, and sit there courageously and talk to them. Because some will still hate you after the meeting, but more will respect you, and will consider your words. We need to hear the people, and talk to them, and actually work for them. Democratic Politicians and Republican Politicians are much the same. They both see the people as a means to an end. In the end, we work for the voters. It's past time we started doing just that.

[The Second Stone]

30. Register democrats and get out the vote

simple as that. There are ample democrats to register and vote to turn elections, but we are going to need millions of small efforts to combine to make a big effort.

[treestar]

34. Exactly!

A "more inspiring message" especially from people in congressional districts - is starting to sound like a tired old excuse.

[treestar]

33. Their attitude to immigrants

should really help get out the Latino vote. I see articles criticizing Obama for deporting people and if people stay home due to that, it is too bad for them then. The Republicans would not even pass the DREAM act and that was for kids. Top that off with the Republicans' cold attitude toward the new kids just coming in. No complaining about Obama deporting new arrivals will be tolerated from anyone who failed to get out and vote for the Democrats for Congress.

[Initech]

35. Don't forget a near catastrophic tanking of our economy.

And the fact that they repeatedly put the interests of big money and giant corporations ahead of the people of this country.

[FSogol]

36. A huge GOTV effort and turn out by all of us. m/t

[n2doc]

38. Somebody hacking into all the Diebold and other electronic voting machines

And accurately counting the vote.....

[maxrandb]

39. It would take a massive effort by

liberals, progressives, moderates and sane people to come out in massive numbers AND VOTE THE FUCKSTICKS OUT

It's as simple as that. We need a wave election in November to send a message to these asshats. Anything less than that, and the message they get is that "they are winning"

We can't wait for the "demographics" to catch to them, as they eventually will...young people, minorities, union folks, folks that want to raise the minimum wage, folks that want to protect individual rights, women's rights, civil rights and wish to promote sanity in governing need to treat mid-term elections with the same intensity and passion that they treat the Presidential election years

It just pisses me the fuck off...so much that I can't see straight...that we elected a great man as President, and then rewarded him with the asshattery we have in the House and in a majority of the Statehouses.

We could have gotten some great stuff done, but instead, we turned the reigns of power over to flaming racist assholes and corporate pricks...and then bitch about how nothing we want to see get done, can get done.

The minute the 2008 electorate decided to sit on their hands in 2010, is the moment serious possibiities, like doing something about climate change, helping the working poor, fixing our infrastructure, protecting voting and women's rights, and a whole host of others...FUCKING DIED!

We know how to change the government. Get the fuck out and do it!

[Cyrano]

41. One word. Gerrymandering

See post 37 above.

[lovemydog]

44. Personal responsibility on the part of each and every democrat

to practice discipline in messaging so as to be inclusive rather than divisive, to vote and get others to vote, and to try and persuade others who either don't vote or vote republican to consider that a more progressive agenda is really a better way for all of us.