New Poll: Democrats Poised To Flip Georgia’s Senate Seat As Michelle Nunn Holds Commanding Lead

[wyldwolf]

First it was Jason Carter's notable lead in the GA governor's race. Now, in a poll by Landmark Communications released Sunday, Democrat Michelle Nunn has a commanding lead against both of her potential challengers in Georgia’s US Senate race. Against Rep. Jack Kingston (R-GA) Nunn is up by eight points, 49% to 41%. The poll also shows her with a nice lead against businessman David Perdue as Nunn leads him 48% to 42%. Perdue and Kingston are heading into a GOP primary runoff this coming Tuesday. The survey shows Kingston with a sizable lead as he is ahead by seven points, 48% to 41%.

While Nunn holds leads against both men, the thought is that she’d prefer to face Kingston in the general election. Atlanta-based political analyst Bill Crane had the following to say after this poll was released.

“I think Michelle Nunn would prefer to run against Jack Kingston. Twenty-two year incumbent, PAC money, special interest, her preferred race is the race that I think she’s going to get.”

http://www.politicususa.com/2014/07/20/democrats-poised-flip-georgias-senate-seat-michelle-nunn-holds-commanding-lead.html

[font color="white"] Cue the 'but she's not a REEAALL Democrat' bullshit[/font]

[femmocrat]

1. Great news!

GA turning blue!

[geek tragedy]

2. Man, if Georgia turns purple, Republicans are so screwed nt

[randys1]

3. I heard a pundit I trust say that yes we might lose Senate in 2014, BUT

we will only lose it for 2 yrs and in that 2 yrs it will be business as usual

nothing will get done as OBama will stop the viscous hate with his power to do so

[stillwaiting]

17. I'm afraid things will get done. See Clinton's Admin and what they accomplished with an R Congress.

[La Lioness Priyanka]

23. clintons republicans were not this radicalized.

[BootinUp]

40. That was a different era.

Even Clinton wouldn't act the same as he did then, now.

[hrmjustin]

4. It looks like the GA governor's unpopularity is helping democrats in the state.

Remember they have to get 50 percent of the vote to avoid a runoff in GA.

[n2doc]

5. I sure hope so. Race is going to turn nastier as soon as the primary is over

Kingston will say anything to tear her down. He is a real piece of work. I'm hoping the combination of Deal imploding and people getting tired of hearing dog whistles will put Nunn and Carter in office.

[SkyDaddy7]

12. I live in Georgia...

And I do not have faith in those poll numbers...I hope they hold but my guess is like many elections in the past the Democrat looks really good while the Republicans attack each other but as soon as that is over the polls will swing at least 20 points.

[klook]

18. Sadly agree

Nunn is more electable than probably any statewide Democratic candidate in recent years, but most of the state is in the grip of the Rethugs.

It's going to take MASSIVE Dem turnout in Nov. for Nunn to have a snowball's chance in Savannah of winning.

[SkyDaddy7]

34. I think we are still...

4-6yrs away from seeing a Democratic Senator or Governor...Demographics are changing but slowly.

However, I would LOVE to be wrong & see Nunn get elected...That would almost seal the deal on the GOP not winning the Senate!

[Tarheel_Dem]

6. YES!!!!!

[Swede Atlanta]

7. Living in Georgia I would welcome one or more upsets....

Pundits are saying changes in demographics are going to make more Georgia congressional districts more competitive for Democrats and give Democrats a better chance in U.S. Senate and state-wide races such as the governorship. But they aren't suggesting this is going to happen overnight but will likely be seen slowly over the next 20 years.

Both Jason Carter and Michelle Nunn have state-wide name recognition even if the politics of their name-sakes are much at odds with current state conservatism.

Carter's bump is likely tied to a renewed look at an ethnics investigation into Nathan Deal's 2010 gubernatorial campaign. The state settled with two members of the state ethics commission for a little over $3M combined. The cost of that plus the fact Deal left Congress facing an ethics investigation have led some Georgians to think again. I think unless Carter can keep the ethics issue on the front page and in the news until election day the bump may be short-lived.

Nunn is likely enjoying the fruits of the savage runoff campaign being waged between Kingston and Perdue. Both are trying to "out conservative" the other in their ads. Once the GOP have settled their internal differences and coalesce around one of these men the race is likely to become less favorable to Nunn.

But if even one of them were to win election this Fall it would send shudders down the Georgia GOP establishment. They believe they have this state locked up forever despite the demographic changes. They believe they can run corrupt men and women for office without any pushback from the electorate.

We'll see. I am hopeful....

[BrotherIvan]

10. Thanks for the info

said it better than any article I've read.

[Dawgs]

14. Trick in Georgia is to get out the AA vote and those that need Medicaid expansion.

And Kingston, who will most likely win in runoff, is running on cutting Obamacare.

I think he's taking a big risk of not pissing off those that voted for and support Obama.

[Swede Atlanta]

15. That's interesting.....

I actually think Perdue has a good chance on this one. Neither one is favorable to things progressives consider important but I think Perdue is the lesser of two evils.

You are correct that getting the African American voters to the polls in an "off" election is critical. I am hoping that even the prospect of a Carter or Nunn win would get them into the voting booth on election day.

There are enough Georgians who are suffering without the Medicaid expansion they should be interested in voting for Carter. I think Carter, while probably a fairly committed progressive, realizes he is in a state that is anything but progressive. That's why he supported the guns anywhere law.

Let's see how it plays out. I would love for either or both of these candidates to cause an "uh oh" moment in Georgia and national GOP circles.

I still think either is a long shot but I am contributing a little bit each month to both campaigns and when push comes to shove as we get closer to the election will volunteer for one or both campaigns.

[Dawgs]

16. I was on a UGA sports blog last week and many of the users were voting Kingston over Perdue.

As far as I'm concerned they are both evil.

Voting rights, republican popularity, and the Medicaid expansion could get our side turning out more than many Republicans are thinking/hoping. We'll see.

[GoCubsGo]

20. Kingston and Perdue are both batcrap crazy.

I get my local TV out of Augusta, so I get to see all the campaign commercials. It's amazing to watch them tear each other apart. Even more amazing that they're both trying to associate the other with President Obama. I'm not looking forward to watching the winner try to tear apart Ms. Nunn.

[Dawgs]

21. Atlanta here and seeing the same commercials.

Love that they are attacking Obama and Obamacare. Could help their side, but could also help ours.

[onehandle]

8. Sorry, but none of these numbers count until after well the GOP primary. nt

[Indydem]

9. No kidding.

Optimism is great, but only when tempered with realism.

[totodeinhere]

11. The poll quoted in the OP is positive. But it is true that often whoever wins a primary gets a

bounce coming out of the primary. I expect a tightening in the race after the primary. But at the very least this poll shows that we have a good shot.

[SkyDaddy7]

13. 20 point bounce...

Democrats always look good in Georgia & everyone always talks about it turning purple & then as soon as the GOP is done with their primary reality sets in & the Democratic candidate that had that 5-10 point lead suddenly finds themselves 10-15pts behind & it remains that way until the election.

I wish things were different...

[trishtrash]

19. I understand the skepticism about this poll ...

However, there is something, or a combination of things, going on that make me think we may pull this off. The Republican brand isn't looking so good in Georgia right now ... Gov. Deal is in a heap of ethical trouble that gets played out in the media day by day. Even the "Freepers" aren't liking him. (That is great news for Jason Carter, the Dem. candidate for governor). Even Kingston's own TV campaign ads aren't very flattering, and Perdue has done his part by attacking him, albeit in the usual sleazy repub fashion. On issues, Georgia's rural hospitals are in deep trouble because of Deal's failure to accept federal expansion. The ACA options are limited because Georgia has not signed onto the federal register. We may be attracting new business but only because of our huge pool of potential workers resulting from high unemployment. And on and on.

[MineralMan]

22. Make it so, Georgia Democrats!

Make it so.

[SansACause]

24. Where's the missing 10%

I'd feel better if Nunn had >50%.

[wyldwolf]

25. dunno. There is a libertarian in the race, doubtful she's pulling 10%

[Stevepol]

26. Has any Dem won a race since 2002, the year Diebold took over the counting?

If Diebold touch screens still rule the roost, I wouldn't put much confidence in the pre-election polls.

Barnes in 2002 had an 11% lead in polls leading up to the election and lost by 5%, a 16-point flip.

Max Cleland also lost after holding about a 5% lead in polls I believe. I think he lost by 8%.

Since then, Diebold has probably gotten better at adjusting the margin of victory, but that's about the only difference I can see between then and now.

[wyldwolf]

27. Jim Martin had a shot in 2008

In the general election on November 4, 2008, Chambliss fell .2% shy of the simple majority needed to win the election and Martin finished about 3% behind. As no candidate received a majority of the vote, a run-off election was held on December 2, 2008 between Martin and Chambliss. Chambliss went on to win the run-off with 57% of the vote to Martin's 43% - wiki

Many felt the difference in the general vs. the runoff is Obama wasn't on the ballot in the runoff so Dem turnout was very poor.

[CottonBear]

42. Yes. Most young AA voters only voted for Obama in GA.

If they had also voted for state and local Democrats in the last two presidential elections then we Georgians could have won more federal and state Democratic races.

Runoff and mid-term election turnout is very poor here in Georgia.

[Indydem]

28. You do know that Diebold has nothing to do with elections now, right?

Or are you going to keep acting like they are the reason Democrats keep losing in places like GA?

The company that ended up with their assets is Canadian.

[Stevepol]

38. Where do you get Diebold is defunct?

Diebold became Premier as a way of losing the bad patina of the Diebold name, but it's the same technology under a different name. Wikipedia has a little history of it:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Premier_Election_Solutions

Here's one of the notes in the Wikipedia article:

"Avi Rubin, Professor of Computer Science at Johns Hopkins University and Technical Director of the Information Security Institute has analyzed the source code used in these voting machines and reports "this voting system is far below even the most minimal security standards applicable in other contexts."[7] Following the publication of this paper, the State of Maryland hired Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) to perform another analysis of the Diebold voting machines. SAIC concluded “[t]he system, as implemented in policy, procedure, and technology, is at high risk of compromise.”

"The company RABA did a security analysis of the Diebold AccuVote in January 2004 confirming many of the problems found by Avi Rubin and finding some new vulnerabilities."

ES&S is no better and in fact is probably more likely to be playing games, tho there's no way to know. In fact, that's the criticism of electronic vote counting that I find the most distressing: There's no way to know one way or the other in almost every state in the union that the results of any election where the vote counting is done by electronic voting machines can be trusted. When the vote counting is done in total secrecy and without auditing or recounts, there's no way to know for sure. That's ANY ELECTION, whether the Dem won or the Republican.

You might be interested in reading an article about the 2009 decision by the German constitutional court, the highest court with oversight over constitutional issues, which outlawed electronic vote counting in Germany:

http://www.opednews.com/articles/Germany-bans-computerized-by-Paul-Lehto-090303-583.html

This decision by the way was hardly reported at all in US media.

[Laelth]

29. k&r for Michelle Nunn. n/t

-Laelth

[William769]

30. Kick & recommended.

[William769]

31. It amazes me how Putinista's never comment or reccord a thread like this.

Very telling indeed.

[Cha]

33. You mean like..

they couldn't care less about us ousting fascist rw sociopaths with a Democrat to help save our Democracy and its People?

[Cha]

32. thank you, wyldwolf! To Michelle Nunn.. Best of Luck in Georgia!

[riqster]

35. GOTFV will make it so.

[Orsino]

36. Damn. We sure needed some goid news like this. n/t

[The Traveler]

37. Georgia Democrats ... let's not get cocky

Carter and Nunn are both outstanding candidates and Republican corruption and incompetence has fertilized the field. There is a real opportunity here.

But we're a long way from victory and I don't think our ground game is tuned up. The Republicans have the organizational advantage, and despite the really amazing flow of contributions to these campaigns, you know the the Rethugs will have the dark money advantage.

So we got to get our game on!

Trav

[JCMach1]

39. I keep seeing the GA Republican ads... the GA Rep. party has gone off the deep end

... Yes Virginia, you can move too far to the right...


There will be a price to pay this Fall...

[aikoaiko]

41. We're doing our part

[ffr]

43. Go GOTV team Georgia!!!

We're all cheering you on!

Those of you from Georgia not involved yet, call your precinct and see how you can help GOTV!

[BlueMTexpat]

44. Congratulations to GA Dems!

And whoever else is helping with this support ... great to hear! Dems simply can NOT lose the Senate in November. I keep hoping for a miracle that might even bring Dems back into power in the House.

I am even becoming slightly optimistic about the US Senate race in my home state of MT. It appears to be tightening and momentum, while not completely moving toward Walsh, the Dem candidate who is Max Baucus's replacement, appears definitely to be moving away from Daines, yet another GOP TP'er in Congress, who looked unbeatable just a couple months ago.

http://www.kbzk.com/news/new-poll-shows-montana-u-s-senate-race-tightening/ If you check out the link, there is a fair analysis of the poll results at the end.

Congressional obstructionism and the Hobby Lobby decision especially are NOT playing well in MT, especially among MT women - even self-described conservative religious women. Obamacare is also catching on. Unfortunately, I can't cite any polls or provide any links for those statements. They are anecdotal, based on what I hear from my extended family and friends there who generally have the political "pulse."

My advice to the Walsh campaign: please ask BOTH Howard Dean AND Elizabeth Warren - both of whom are quite popular in MT among independents especially - to help out on the campaign trail in September-October. Please!!!!! I am certain that both would make real efforts to come because both truly believe in the 50-state strategy. They really could tip the balance to Walsh, especially if MT Dems work hard to GOTV.

What bothered me most about the MT poll was that 15% of self-described Dems said that they would vote for Daines. Any Dem who would vote for a candidate like Daines either is NOT a Dem or needs to have his/her head examined.

What was interesting was that 12% of self-described Republicans would vote for Walsh! It's hard to believe that almost as many MT GOP'ers appear to be more intelligent than that 15% of MT "Dems," but then that's my birth state for you ... LOL.

[Vogon_Glory]

45. A Democratic Flip Would Be So Wonderful And So Fitting

A Michelle Nunn victory would be so wonderful and so fitting. I'm still resentful of Karl Rove's dirty tricks that led to Saxby Chambliss' win and I would be gratified to see his terms bookended with a Democratic win as he prepares to leave.

As disgusted as I am with the political apathy of those most likely to be hurt the most, I would dearly love to see the end of the Dixiecrat-Teabagger era that has cursed the south for over a century.