They didn't say what shape it was in, and such announcements are as much propaganda as they are factual. "We have a Buk!!!!" But they didn't use it for over two weeks and that's a question mark. During those two weeks the Ukr air war kicked their butts.
And the day after the Russian press crowed about the Buk the Ukrainian press crowed about how one of the garrison commanders finally did things right. For a while they'd just given up their men, uniforms, and weapons. Then they started holding pat and fighting--but eventually they'd give up and turn over their weapons. This was the first garrison to hold out until most of the men were bloodied, and when they yielded rendered their weapons inoperable. The anti-aircraft garrison equipment, he'd said quite specifically, had been ruined and destroyed, made unusable. So the rebels captured a Buk and didn't say what shape it was in.
It's a coherent, consistent story. But the Buk wasn't used.
It pays to note a pattern, though. If today the rebels captured their first tank, it wouldn't show up as being used for a few days. Then reports would say they used a tank, and the next day a tank. A week later there'd be multiple reports of tanks being used, and before you know it multiple reports of groups of 3-8 tanks being used. Even though it wasn't clear they'd captured more tanks. It went that way with tanks, APCs, Grads, MANPADs, other missile and rocket units. So they captured a Buk, and most were just waiting for its first use--then having 2, 3, 4, 10 spotted.
Then on 7/12 or 7/13 the word was a Buk or two crossed during an especially heavy assault at a border checkpoint. They weren't sure that's what it was and there were dozens of pieces of equipment that went across the border.
7/14 the Antonov was downed, the first plane that couldn't have been brought down by a MANPAD. And the rebels crowed that the "skies were theirs," and it was a warning to the "fascists" to "stay out of their skies." The Ukr air force was grounded for a day. The Antonov on 7/14 was cut up and carted away for scrap, so no analysis could be done. But it was a missile--Buk or air-to-air, the jury's out.
A couple of fighters were downed over the next couple of days--MANPAD or Buk, nobody could tell. Including a fighter on the same day, in the same area, as MH17. And earlier that day a Buk was seen in Snizhne/Snezhnoe (same place, the first is Ukrainian and the second is Russian.) A second report but a Buk elsewhere, but there wasn't video and photographs of that one.
A Buk is captured. Not used for a while. Then a Buk was used one day--and a couple of days later it's used again, but there are two sighted. No eyebrows went up except in one or two Ukrainian sources. Same old story. Capture one, have one, use one, use two, use a dozen. Camel's nose under the door. Ignore the reports of "camel's noses" crossing the border.
Since MH17 went down the Buk has been seen in Snizhne the next day, then moving towards Krasnodon, with a missile or two missing, and in the middle of the night it was reported to have been one of two sent back over the border to Russia. Later that night it was reported 3 other Buk carriers went over the border back into Russia, one empty of missiles and the other holding a command module for controlling and coordinating their fire.
The rebels have said since MH17 went down that they didn't have the capability. Today they acknowledged capturing the SAM system in June, but said that it had been a pile of electronics that they couldn't fix. It was useless. They corroborate the garrison commander's story, now that it serves them to do so. But no mention of the Antonov they'd knocked down--or the glee that they had in reporting at first that it was an Antonov or Il'yushkin they'd downed (before it turned into a Malaysian passenger jet). Or the reported sightings. Because it serves them. At this point they undoubtedly don't have the capability--their Russian Buks are gone.
Either they don't claim the Russian Buks because they're lying, because they were "on loan," or because Russians were manning them I can't say. But the one captured Buk didn't undergo spontaneous fission and I really do think it had been trashed. Good for PR, but not for downing any planes for over two weeks.
I believe the reports of the Buk in Snizhne, seen earlier east of there, and then the next day heading east again towards Krasnodon and then crossing the border. I don't think they'll ever find it. But if it had been captured, I think the serial number would have been a dead give away, plus any documentation with it. More than one tank has been IDed as having come from Russia, given its serial number--made in Ukraine, shipped to a base in Russia, and never appearing on a Ukrainian inventory list. MANPADs and Grads have been IDed as Russian with inspection forms filled and and signed, showing the base it was assigned to. Some piece of equipment was really new--just sent to Russian military units for the first time in March, unavailable for official export ever, and already in the Ukraine in May. From a little town with a large military base over near Saratov. Better for the Buk to be seen than have any kind of information about it ever become public.
Is any of this provable beyond any doubt? I'd be surprised if it was. On the other hand, it can't be proven that the Buk captured on 6/29 was in working order, either. They've kept things just ambiguous enough that even though two high-flying, MANPAD-inaccessible planes were shot down and they claimied them it can't be pinned on them. Maybe it was Russian air-to-air missiles. But any action requires proof, even if the actions turn out to be really similar in both cases so it doesn't really matter.
Another report--one that's a bit sketchier--is that two Russian missile operations specialists were detained at the border yesterday. Then again, the day before the MH17 flight was downed reports of "little green men" were all over the place, estimates between 300 and 400 of them, first noted near the border (where there's active fighting) and later that day and the next day further west. The speculation was that they were experts of various kinds, specially trained, possibly to show the idiots running things in Donets'k how to get the job done.
Ukrainians have paraded a prisoner or two before the media. One commander--Avakov? No, probably Lyashko--did the Russian thing and had them stripped and beaten when videotaped. The "fascists" had a backlash against that kind of violation of international norms. Since then only the rebels show mostly naked, bloodied, battered prisoners and parade them on video on the net or live in front of a barrage of question-asking reporters. So while the two "missile operators" might be interesting to have paraded before the cameras and interrogated by proxy, it's not likely to happen. Pity. What's more likely is that some of the soldiers that were shipped from border crossing points to Russian hospitals or kidnapped and taken to Russia will be held as hostages. The Russians need human currency to pay for the release of their citizens that are captured, at least the citizens they want back.
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