Gallup - Am I being paranoid?

[dawg]

I notice today that Gallup now shows President Obama 4% points ahead of Romney in a trial heat. This is a big change considering that the website has been showing Romney in the lead for weeks. But when I clicked through to the graph that shows the tracking data, I noticed that there is an extra data point between the old poll showing Romney ahead and the new poll showing Obama in the lead.

Specifically, the poll showing Romney ahead was dated February 16. Shortly after that, there is a data point showing the match a dead heat (February 20). But this poll was never publicized on the website. In fact, gallup.com continued to display the February 16 results showing Romney with a four point lead right up until the release of the March 25 poll numbers. Why?

If they had more recent poll numbers, why didn't they update their site? Am I being too paranoid?

[leveymg]

1. Not paranoid. Just Gallup.

They're political polling is usually an outlier that tells us more about what Gallup wants us to think than anything else. I don't give it much credence.

[dawg]

2. I don't think this was aimed at us.

I think it was aimed at Republican primary voters. Romney's only appeal over there is that he is more "electable" than Gingrich and Santorum.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

3. Is that a national poll?

If so, it's basically irrelevant except as a general barometer which is going to fluctuate a lot between now and then. Right now, the President's polls numbers in key states seem to be doing well, particularly since the Republicans decided to declare their jihad against women.

[dawg]

5. Yes, it's a national poll.

And I agree that it's irrelevant as far as the general election goes. I'm just a little concerned about the fact that they obviously had more recent data but chose not to publicize it for nearly a month. Lots of Republcians voted in their primaries while that data was being withheld. Many conservatives sucked it up and voted for Romney - some of them no doubt influenced by his ephemeral 4% advantage over Obama in a respected national poll.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

8. Witholding information seems to be par for the course

as long as it helps Republicans and their "preferred candidate". However, honestly, I never really honestly believed any other nominee had as clear of a shot at the nomination as Romney, who, despite the general lack of enthusiasm, has the cash and the organization to go all the way.

[ProSense]

4. Here's the trend

It's really more a function of the official start of the Obama campaign and the growing dislike for Republicans.

[dawg]

6. The 47-47 data point was not publicized until now.

That is the problem I am having with them. They were still running with the February 16 data until a few days ago.

[jeff47]

10. What's with the Romney line between 48 and 47?

Very creative drawing to have the line keep going up after 48 and then have to go straight down.

[dawg]

13. That Romney "bump" is the poll they featured for over a month.

If you checked their website, they showed Romney ahead based on the Feb 16 number, when the data shows they clearly already had newer poll numbers. In the absence of some other explanation, I can only conclude that they suppressed the newer data for some reason.

[slackmaster]

7. You're not paranoid. You're paying way too much attention to polls that don't mean anything.

There is only ONE poll that matters, and that will happen in November.

[caledesi]

9. Yes!

Pres. Obama beat the "Clinton machine"...Romney doesn't have a chance...His OWN party is not exactly thrilled with him!

As an aside, Romney didn't even make the cut the last time...all one has to do is look at a past video of this flip-flopper! (his "thinking" is that voters accept his lies ...no, we
are smarter than that...good memories and all that)

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/obama-job-approval

[Arkana]

11. It's Gallup, and like other pollsters their data is susceptible to giant swings.

Gallup's not a bad pollster (especially when compared to Rasmussen and some of the other organizations), but PPP and Quinnipiac are much better.

[dawg]

12. It isn't the swing that bothers me.

It's the fact that their website reflected a 4% Romney lead over Obama for nearly a month, based on a February 16 poll, when their data clearly shows they had a subsequent February 20 poll showing the race as a 47-47 dead heat.

Everyone is missing my point, as usual.