Vladimir Putin Has Been Outplayed by Barack Obama

[joshcryer]

Max Fisher notes this morning that although President Obama got a lot of flak for his restrained response to Russia's aggression in Ukraine, his approach of giving Vladimir Putin enough rope to hang himself has turned out to be a lot cannier than his critics expected:

This has been so effective, and has apparently taken Putin by such surprise, that after weeks of looking like he could roll into eastern Ukraine unchallenged, he's backing down all on his own. Official Russian rhetoric, after weeks of not-so-subtle threats of invading eastern Ukraine, is backing down. Putin suddenly looks like he will support Ukraine's upcoming presidential election, rather than oppose it, although it will likely install a pro-European president. European and American negotiators say the tone in meetings has eased from slinging accusations to working toward a peaceful resolution.

http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2014/05/vladimir-putin-has-been-outplayed-barack-obama

I know many wanted to beat the war drums and make the claim that eastern Ukraine was falling into chaos and civil war, it's nice to have a rational view of the situation on the ground there.

Related:

US welcomes moves by pro-Russian forces in Ukraine

WASHINGTON (AP) — The White House on Friday welcomed as a "good development" moves by pro-Russian insurgents to leave government buildings they had seized in eastern Ukraine.

Local patrols by steelworkers have forced the pro-Russian insurgents to abandon the government buildings they had seized in the Ukrainian city of Mariupol. The move is a setback to forces that have established footholds in eastern Ukraine as they demonstrated opposition to the interim Ukrainian government in Kiev.

"We certainly welcome any indication that separatists who ... have seized buildings, who have set up roadblocks, stockpiled weapons, are vacating buildings and ceasing the kinds of activities that have only destabilized the situation in Ukraine and led to confrontations and violence," White House spokesman Jay Carney told reporters.

http://news.yahoo.com/us-welcomes-moves-pro-russian-forces-ukraine-174719295--politics.html

That's what I call a counter-insurgency.

[Cha]

1. Thank you for this, josh.. From your link..

"Most of this is economic. Russia's self-imposed economic problems started pretty quickly after its annexation of Crimea in March and have kept up. Whether or not American or European governments sanction Russia's broader economy, the global investment community has a mind of its own, and they seem to have decided that Russia's behavior has made it a risky place to put money. So risky that they're pulling more money out."

[joshcryer]

2. Now if only we could get some counter-Bundy activists in NV.

[Cha]

3. I have no doubt Bundy will get what he deserves.. Meanwhile in Ukraine..

MFA of Ukraine ✔ @MFA_Ukraine
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In just 9 days, #UkraineVotes in what may be its most important election ever. #UnitedforUkraine @ADeshchytsia
8:18 AM - 16 May 2014
93 Retweets 45 favorites

TOD

[joshcryer]

6. The summer should cook Bundy out.

115 degrees temperature for weeks at a time, ain't easy.

[Fearless]

4. " Local patrols by steelworkers"

Love it!!

[Igel]

12. Metinvest workers.

The patrols are something like 2 police + 7 (or 9, an odd #) of Metinvest workers that are "volunteers" but paid.

This is Akhmetov's doing. It's a good thing, because it removes any need for an attack to dislodge them. On the other hand, the city is still under the DPR, it's still Donbas, and while Akhemtov has fought with the DPR it doesn't mean he's for Kiev.

He doesn't want to be in Russia. Putin puts oligarchs on a leash. The days of the oligarchs telling the government what's to be done are past and there's no evidence they'll return any time soon. Heck, you don't have to be an oligarch to be on a leash these days. Just have a sufficiently prosperous or visible company and you'll be put on a leash. The state controls industry by pressuring the "private" owners and having substantial ownership stakes in it. It's not the Soviet model. But this model arose at about the same time as the Soviet model took hold. Akhmetov doesn't want to be put on a leash, in any event.

He doesn't want to be under Kiev's thumb if they're going to be all anti-corruption and if the "other" oligarchs are going to run things. In typical Cosa Nostra style, he's been generous and kind to those under him, as long as it suits him. He sets up "good works". It's a symbiotic lord/serf relationship; it's the same that the Soviets had with the area and that good manor lords always maintained. Very Russian. But he has corrupt roots and is likely still involved in some big league corruption; I say "likely" because once you get so many billions of dollars in assets, "big league" takes on an entirely different meaning and much of the corruption tends to be more "legal."

Akhmetov wants a quasi-independent Donbas. One that he can run as his fiefdom, his estate, his usad'ba, with companies, mines, ironworks. Most of his business is with Russia, but there's a lot with the West. His attitude is that Putin doesn't want the Donbas--it's a mess, to be honest, and was a mess before this happened. (This has happened largely because it was a mess). Being Trandniestria would be very bad for business.

A Donbas that's part of Ukraine, with easier ties to the West, but also with strong ties to Russia, one in which the local governor is elected, the mayors are elected, etc., is great--but imagine this being in a place where Ford owns most of the workers. They'd be in the industrialists' pocket. It's his goal.

He can't be happy that Putin has enunciated juche for military technology: Everything involved in weapons production should be within Russia. He has in mind the Mistral-class French ships, to be sure, but what's going on in Donbas is the primary motivation for it. A huge number of parts (not usually the finished product) is produced in the Donbas.

[Hekate]

5. KnR

[jakeXT]

7. Fortune threatened, Ukraine's richest man joins the fray

But in a new departure for him on Wednesday, the usually camera-shy oligarch made a four-minute video for Ukrainian TV channels in which he declared: "I strongly believe that Donbass can be happy only in a united Ukraine".

He threw his weight behind the Kiev government's plan to devolve more powers to the regions to provide greater autonomy and undercut separatist demands which Kiev fears will lead to the break-up of Ukraine.

Soccer-mad, he owns the FC Shakhtar club, with its flying saucer-like stadium and star-studded multinational squad. He made headlines three years ago by buying a $200-million London apartment.

But in the violent upheaval of the past five months, the overthrow of his ally, Moscow-backed President Viktor Yanukovich, the shooting dead of more than 100 people in Kiev by police, Russia's annexation of Crimea and now separatist rebellions in the east, have made Akhmetov's wealth and status count for less.

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSBREA4F03F20140516?irpc=932

[Major Hogwash]

8. Putin has been playing Russian Roulette.

Oooh, I'm sure I'm not the first one to say that, but I'll take the credit for it all the same.

Bwaha-haha!!

[sendero]

9. Of all the things I've thought about Obama..

..... "dumb" is not one of them. He's sharp as a tack and he usually gets what he set out to get.

It's just that what he sets out to get is too often not in the interest of the average American.

Happily, this time it is.

[pampango]

10. We know that tea partiers, freepers and neo-cons won't see it that way, but you're right.

I suspect Putin will still aim for international recognition for Russia's acquisition of Crimea and to keep Ukraine out of NATO so he is not totally finished playing the military threat card and the civil unrest card.

If he gets he gets what he wants in those two areas I bet things would calm down in Ukraine very quickly. The leading presidential candidate professes to see little support in Ukraine for NATO membership, so that should be relatively easy. International recognition for Crimea becoming part of Russia won't happen for a long time but that is not as important to Vlad as is international acceptance of the takeover.

[muriel_volestrangler]

11. That AP report is good news

Fewer self-appointed 'new governments' holed up in public buildings is a Good Thing.

[former9thward]

13. What a spin.

Putin got exactly what he wanted. He got Crimea without a shot being fired. No one is even talking about that anymore. He never wanted eastern Ukraine or Ukraine in general. The country is a economic basketcase and there is no way Russia would want to take on that headache. Putin demanded the eastern areas get more independence and the Ukraine government is giving them that. So much for Russia being "outplayed."

[pampango]

16. Partially agree. By taking Crimea he has created an even more pro-Europe Ukraine by removing

a lot of pro-Russia voters from the Ukrainian electoral equation. In terms of keeping NATO away from Russia's border, he has made that less likely in the long run with a more Europe-oriented Ukraine than it was before.

Crimea will be an expensive acquisition in terms of its infrastructure needs. It now imports 80% of its water and electricity from Ukraine. It will require a lot of expenditures to correct that situation. Those expenses combined with the economic cost of western sanctions which have cost Russia a lot already mean that, while Putin captured Crimea without a shot being fired, he did not capture it without a ruble being spent.

He already had the important part of Crimea, the naval base at Sevastopol, in terms of a long-term lease. But he has expanded the national territory of Russia. Nationalist politicians tend to focus on things like that (which may worry other neighbors), so I think you are right that Putin is 'got exactly what he wanted'.

[LittleBlue]

14. Just the opposite, really

Putin took Crimea and now all the bluster about sanctions has died down, and the world has seemingly forgotten it once belonged to Ukraine. I can't remember the last time there was a significant headline about Crimea, the media have seemingly moved on.

All in all, a successful annexation with few real consequences.

[Puzzledtraveller]

15. they aren't even playing the same game, Putin's is in Russian.