What are the political consequences of an Obamacare SCOTUS overturn?
Heading into today, I was about 80% sure the Supreme Court would uphold the mandate (the main mechanism behind most of the reforms) by either a 5-4 or 6-3 margin. However, hearing all these negative reports coming out of the Supreme Court today, saying all of the conservative justices, including Kennedy and Roberts, absolutely hammered the individual mandate, scares me. Right now it looks like a tossup if we're lucky. It's down to the Chief Justice, and I'm not too optimistic with him for obvious reasons.
We all know what the consequences of the overturn of health care reform would be for millions of people around this country. That's the really important issue at stake here. (Plus, it puts us on the road for a public option or even a single payer system 20-30 years from now).
But what about the political consequences? What does it mean for 2012 and beyond?
There are two scenarios I can see playing out, and they throw this country in complete opposite directions. Both scenarios start with about a week or two of confusion and shock in June, with a ton of celebration on the right.
The first, and slightly more likely scenario, is that this spells doom for President Obama, the Democratic Party, and any chance of meaningful health care reform within the next couple of decades. It would be a political disaster for the left, and would mean the Republican Party would make gains in Congress. Luckily for Obama, he's running against a weak Republican candidate who essentially pioneered the individual mandate, so he may win re-election regardless. But don't expect to see Obama or any Democrat attempt to replace Obamacare for a long, long time in this scenario. A second Obama term would probably be filled with very few meaningful accomplishments besides Supreme Court picks (which would make new HCR possible, but unlikely to happen because of fear of political repercussions). And if Obama loses, there is ZERO chance at Medicare for all or a public option for at least a generation and we're stuck with the system we have for a long time.
The second scenario, less likely but far more desirable, is that this paves the way for Medicare for all, or at the least a public option, in the relatively near future. After a couple weeks of disillusionment and confusion, the left begins to get pissed off at the Supreme Court and rallies behind Obama and the Democratic Party to ensure the Supreme Court moves to the left and a replacement for the individual mandate (perhaps Medicare for all) becomes a part of the Democratic platform. Meanwhile, the Republican Party seems a lot less pissed off and less motivated after the boogeyman that was Obamacare was struck down. 2012 becomes a landslide for Obama and Congressional Dems. It would probably take another big win in 2014 for Obama to consider passing Medicare for all (since I don't think it's mathematically possible for the Senate to become fillibuster-proof), but I doubt he would (too much of a political cost for a lame duck president who already tried, succeeded, then failed with HCR). If Democratic momentum continues, I can certainly see the 2016 candidate endorsing that idea, with Obama endorsing it on the campaign trail.
I'd much rather the ACA stay in place, obviously. There are a lot of good reforms and it puts us on the track toward single payer. If it's overturned, the future of health care in this country is extremely uncertain.
What do you see happening?
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