General Discussion

cthulu2016

(10,960 posts) Mon Mar 24, 2014, 05:46 PM Mar 2014

If Nate Silver's best analysis is that Republicans are likely to win, is

he supposed to not publish any analysis?

Or is he supposed to fake it to reach a different conclusion, and then publish that?

Also, how many senate seats will an estimate of a slight Republican edge in taking the senate, published in March cost us? Will millions of people simply stay home because somebody posted an estimate on the internet nine months before the event?

10 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

If Nate Silver's best analysis is that Republicans are likely to win, is (Original Post) cthulu2016 Mar 2014 OP

Did Nate base his analysis on the number of emo-Progs who say they won't vote for Third Way crap? djean111 Mar 2014 #1

It's the reporting rather than his work, really Yo_Mama Mar 2014 #2

He still forgot one key factor. Timez Squarez Mar 2014 #3

What's your evidence that there are 3-4 million new voters from the PPACA website? n/t PoliticAverse Mar 2014 #4

The Motor Voter law that's included in the provision on the PPACA Timez Squarez Mar 2014 #6

Yes, but are you just making up the 3-4 million new voter number? n/t PoliticAverse Mar 2014 #7

He's wrong Capt. Obvious Mar 2014 #8

Correct, the media is saying things that Nate's numbers don't actually say. JoePhilly Mar 2014 #9

If some want to whistle past the graveyard Capt. Obvious Mar 2014 #5

I love Nate Silver Gothmog Mar 2014 #10

djean111

(14,255 posts)

1. Did Nate base his analysis on the number of emo-Progs who say they won't vote for Third Way crap?

Reply to cthulu2016 (Original post)

Mon Mar 24, 2014, 05:51 PM

Mar 2014

Is it ALREADY our fault?

Yo_Mama

(8,303 posts)

2. It's the reporting rather than his work, really

Reply to cthulu2016 (Original post)

Mon Mar 24, 2014, 05:52 PM

Mar 2014

What he actually concluded was "better than 50% chance", and in the press that mutated into Democalypse NOW.

This far before the election there is not a lot of certainty anyway, and an edge to the Republicans is just that. It's probably more helpful for GOTV fundraising and energy raising than anything else.

Timez Squarez

(262 posts)

3. He still forgot one key factor.

Reply to Yo_Mama (Reply #2)

Mon Mar 24, 2014, 05:54 PM

Mar 2014

the new voters that signed up via PPACA.

That's 3-4 million voters off of Nate's accuracy - and it'll be Democrats..

PoliticAverse

(26,366 posts)

4. What's your evidence that there are 3-4 million new voters from the PPACA website? n/t

Reply to Timez Squarez (Reply #3)

Mon Mar 24, 2014, 05:57 PM

Mar 2014

Timez Squarez

(262 posts)

6. The Motor Voter law that's included in the provision on the PPACA

Reply to PoliticAverse (Reply #4)

Mon Mar 24, 2014, 05:59 PM

Mar 2014

It's a fact.

PoliticAverse

(26,366 posts)

7. Yes, but are you just making up the 3-4 million new voter number? n/t

Reply to Timez Squarez (Reply #6)

Mon Mar 24, 2014, 06:02 PM

Mar 2014

Capt. Obvious

(9,002 posts)

8. He's wrong

Reply to PoliticAverse (Reply #7)

Mon Mar 24, 2014, 06:03 PM

Mar 2014

It's actually 30 million.

And they're all Dems in swing districts who plan to vote in off year elections.

JoePhilly

(27,787 posts)

9. Correct, the media is saying things that Nate's numbers don't actually say.

Reply to Yo_Mama (Reply #2)

Mon Mar 24, 2014, 06:03 PM

Mar 2014

Capt. Obvious

(9,002 posts)

5. If some want to whistle past the graveyard

Reply to cthulu2016 (Original post)

Mon Mar 24, 2014, 05:58 PM

Mar 2014

who are we to stop them.

Gothmog

(145,274 posts)

10. I love Nate Silver

Reply to cthulu2016 (Original post)

Mon Mar 24, 2014, 06:59 PM

Mar 2014

He is clearly right to publish his predictions and we need to work like crazy to prove him wrong. Remember that these predictions are based on today's polling. There is no way to predict what the numbers will look like in November. A great deal can happen in the next couple of months

Reply to this discussion