Early voting indicates advantage for Alex Sink in Florida.

[RandySF]

There are about 100,000 outstanding absentee ballots, which the election supervisor has mailed out but not received and/or been voted yet. The current 100,245 voted ballots (including absentee and a small number of early in-person ballots) account for about 22 percent of the district’s registered voters or 44 percent of the likely voter electorate if there’s 50 percent turnout.

Right now, the data tell us The Democratic Party is doing a slightly better job than it did in 2012 in the district, when registered Republicans outvoted registered Democrats by 5 percentage points.

As of last night, that 5 point turnout edge by Republicans has been cut by Democrats to 2.5 percentage points – the exact registration lead that the GOP has over Democrats in the district.

About 41.8 percent of absentee and early in-person ballots have been cast by Republicans and 39.3 percent by Democrats, as of election data posted last night.

In 2012, Republicans’ early/absentee vote total was almost 3.9 percentage points higher than Democrats. They then blew away Democrats on Election Day voting, by about 7 points. But Obama won the district anyway, by about 1 point, likely in large part because of the large number of third- and non-party voters in the moderate district.

This time around, the Libertarian Overby is poised to get a chunk of those independents, especially if the campaign remains this negative. The poll averages indicate he draws slightly more Republican votes than Democratic votes. And if the race is tight, this could make a difference that haunts the GOP.


http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/2014/03/with-7-days-to-go-alex-sink-looks-like-cd13s-winner-for-now.html#storylink=cpy

[PATRICK]

1. the third party gambit

is backfiring in the GOP arsenal of fraud? That is a symptom of their hopeless spiral to the mad right in order to prevent what common sense says would happen- the emergence of rage energized right wing parties encouraged by the same tactics that seek to woo them in an economic crisis that alone could make the general election a thing of fear and rage instead of "inescapabl" truth.

This is like watching moron trying to make a quantum computer and keep only one outcome in balance. If the Dem or other opponent is genuinely clear and really represents the people this would eventually never even be close.