What will Putin do?

[arely staircase]

10 votes, 0 passes | Time left: Unlimited
	Limit military activity to Crimea to protect Black Sea Port Asset
	1 (10%)
	Invade Eastern Ukraine
	7 (70%)
	Invade all of Ukraine
	0 (0%)
	Other (please specify)
	2 (20%)
	0 DU members did not wish to select any of the options provided.
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[hrmjustin]

1. Putin is evil and will take over the eastern part of the nation.

[arely staircase]

2. I think that is what he is laying the groundwork to do.

I hope I am wrong.

[Recursion]

8. Putin is defending Russia's interests. That's his job. His fleet is there.

I personally think the "quiet invasion" was a huge risk for little gain, but he's also proven himself very good at seeing the whole board, so I'm guessing he has a plan somewhere. He wants the ships and the port secure for Russia's use. My guess is he probably wouldn't like an all-out annexation of Bessarabia or whatever we're going to call the eastern third of Ukraine, but having his troops there already puts him in a strong position to re-negotiation the constitutional autonomy of that region.

[hrmjustin]

9. Invading another nation is not acceptable.

[Recursion]

13. And yet it happens all the time, and will keep happening

It's risky, yes, and most countries try to avoid it when they can (which is why I said this seemed high-risk/low-return from my POV).

Interestingly, annexation seems for the most part off the table nowadays; there's a whole lot of fig leaves of "autonomous regions".

[hrmjustin]

15. Well my understanding was that the Crimea had some autonomous powers.

[Recursion]

21. Yeah, and a mechanized division or two will make sure they get more

Not really that much different from Ossetia/Dagestan.

[hrmjustin]

36. I am still against it.

[Recursion]

38. OT: can you remind me what your avatar heraldry is?

Episcopal Church? Florida? It's driving me crazy.

[hrmjustin]

40. The seal of The Episcopal Church.

[AnalystInParadise]

3. Laying the groundwork

to invade Eastern Ukraine, but would go for it all if the option presented itself.

[quinnox]

4. Other - don't know, and don't care

I know this business is getting some folk excited, but I'm not feeling it.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

5. Get John Kerry to vote for an invasion?

[arely staircase]

7. what does that even mean? nt

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

12. Google "John Kerry IWR vote" for precedent.

[arely staircase]

14. so you think he will now support russia invading Ukraine?

that is an interesting take on it.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

16. Well, he was very..how should I put it..flexible?..about supporting Bush's war.

Just pointing out the all too obvious hypocrisy.

[arely staircase]

18. ah, two wrongs make a right

gotcha

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

22. So, we should "intervene" to stop their "intervention".

Isn't that what we did when Iraq "intervened" in Kuwait? Not to mention countless other places we decided to "protect".

Gears within gears within gears.

[arely staircase]

24. ah, strawman now

one fallacy after another. keep going you may get them all.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

26. Should we intervene? That's a question.

If so, how? If so, when? If so, for what reason? If so, what are our interests in the region? Are we being threatened?

[arely staircase]

31. We shouldn't intervene militarily even if Putin invades all of Ukraine.

They are not a NATO member and we have no mutual defense treaty with them. If they were to do so I would support sanctions and other non-military reactions.

What do you think we should do if he invades Ukraine, say "invading Iraq was bad so have your way with whomever, Putin"?

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

35. I say the same thing I said about Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan.

Stay the hell out of it.

[okaawhatever]

50. Iraq did not "intervene" in Kuwait. Iraq invaded and occupied Kuwait. The original mission Desert

Shield was strictly defensive (to protect from an invasion into Saudi Arabia). That changed when Iraq annexed Kuwait as it's 19th Province. Similar to Putin's claims of Ukraine being one with Russia, Saddam Hussein claimed Kuwait belonged to Iraq since it was part of the Ottoman Empire's province of Basra. The US led coalition of forces invaded Kuwait and liberated it. And yes, the Kuwaiti's do think we protected it.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

52. So, Bush was right? And, how did that intervention work out in Iraq? Or, Afghanistan?

[arely staircase]

56. actually the first gulf war worked out quite well for the united states nt

[hrmjustin]

11. I doubt that is his intent.

[Recursion]

6. Win, given his track record

If I could guess his next move I'd be working at Foggy Bottom right now....

[geek tragedy]

10. what wins does he really have, though?

Russia's economy sucks, its international prestige is low, and he's fighting tooth and nail just to hold onto his inner circle of puppets.

His choice in Ukraine is between losing his cold weather seaport and facing diplomatic and economic sanctions from the world's economic superpowers.

[arely staircase]

17. well he did whip those pussy riot women and lock up some greenpeace guys

oh, and he kicks ass against lgbt protestors.

[Recursion]

23. I was thinking of Ossetia

His choice in Ukraine is between losing his cold weather seaport and facing diplomatic and economic sanctions from the world's economic superpowers.

Nah, he's got too much petro for that; almost as much as we do (incidentally, we passed Saudi Arabia again, and are now the world's #1 petro state...)

Most likely we'll end up "persuading" him to drop Assad, which is an albatross he's wanted to get rid of for a while anyways.

[geek tragedy]

25. Economic sanctions are gonna happen.

Putin's got petrol, but so do a lot of other people.

Russia's still got military capacity, but economically it's a 90-lb weakling compared to the EU and US (it would be the fourth largest economy inside the EU, barely bigger than Italy's).

[Recursion]

29. You could well be right

My own guess is that he will effect a "partition" of sorts (probably under the "autonomous region" rubric/fig leaf that has become so popular recently), withdraw, and then graciously offer to have other nations make up the multinational force that monitors it after the fact, and more or less get away with it.

[geek tragedy]

32. Note what he would have lost, though--independent Ukraine itself would come firmly

into the EU camp, and probably into NATO as well.

The tighter he squeezes, the more slips through his fingers, to paraphrase Princess Leia.

[TwilightGardener]

48. Of course, there's the argument that the west will be inheriting and propping up

a basket-case and spend lots of money doing so, but...not sure how long-term that would be.

[geek tragedy]

49. the EU's loss is not necessarily his gain, and vice versa nt

[TwilightGardener]

43. We're still keeping him busy there (Syria), us and Saudis and Qatar. I'm sure he

doesn't appreciate it. And we didn't get bogged down ourselves, thank freakin' God.

[Recursion]

44. Now fire up Google Maps, and complete the triangle

This is still ultimately about the Caucuses, IMO, as remote as they are from both theaters. He needs to pick one, and I think he's just signalled that.

[TheKentuckian]

27. He ain't giving up that port and Europe is not going to stop buying his oil.

I suspect that is the way it is and the way it will be.

Therefore, there is no lever to make the cost of keeping the port higher than the cost of losing it.
I suspect Putin prizes fear and the ability to project power over respect and prestige. Otherwise, he'd not have been allowed his measure of power.
No fucking way and if he surprised he'd wake up dead one day but play "Weekend at Bernie's" style puppet until the story came together, just like the old days.

[geek tragedy]

28. He's obviously decided his least worst option is to seize Crimea.

But, trade sanctions on Russian goods and exports would hurt him a lot more than it would the EU.

He needs money more than they need oil.

Russia's GDP is 1/7th what the EU's is.

[TheKentuckian]

59. True, but they aren't going to stop buying that oil other than some symbolic statement

Russia will muddle through and Europe needs the oil, lots of their alternative sources are under producing due to military adventures. Libya was important and is now a mess and Iraq still isn't right. Iran and the Saudis wins again, lol.

[geek tragedy]

60. The Saudis have a much longer record of winning than the Iranians do.

The House of Saud does, anyways.

[TheKentuckian]

61. True, no help to us though and not indicative of the future. There is no hand here, we all know it.

Pure bluster and angst.

[TwilightGardener]

45. Big picture: Is Russia expanding its influence, or is it contracting?

That's Putin's main concern. It's ours, too. We're still on the chessboard moving pieces, even if Obama denies it. Putin might "win" at least part of Ukraine by a show of force, but it remains to be seen what that really means in the long run. We looked kinda like winners for a while in Iraq and Afghanistan, and then...not so much.

[Recursion]

47. Oddly enough I just did an OP on that...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10024591847

He's saying to NATO that we can keep the Med. He just wants to move the gas.

[Bad Thoughts]

19. The level of propaganda stirring up fears of anti-Russia activity won't let him stop at Crimea. eom.

[FarCenter]

20. If Crimea goes well, then the oblasts along the Sea of Azov and the Odessa oblast are next.

But I doubt that he has decided what to do next.

[tularetom]

30. ...and why should anyone in the US give a shit?

[arely staircase]

34. if it ain't the good ol US of A who cares? nt

[gordianot]

33. Czars, Communist Dictators, Russian Presidents have a will always want a port in the Black Sea.

[TheKentuckian]

37. Other: Whatever is required to maintain that port or provides even better strategic advantage

If the west does not have a sweeter carrot then he pretty much has to keep that port and there are no realistic sticks to force any other choice.

Hell, I think he'd pretty much have to wait out even a real oil embargo over this and I don't believe one is coming. He has the better hand and greater necessity in order to maintain his ambitions.
I think he strategically must be willing to risk open war over their few remaining ports, I'm pretty sure we would in most situations and we have a lot more options.

[pipi_k]

39. I passed because...

I don't have a clue as to what the hell he'll do next.

[Rex]

41. Good question.

There is no telling what is going on inside that former KGB chief's head.

[TwilightGardener]

42. Depends on international response. Which is why we should have a fairly

strong international response.

[Renew Deal]

46. The more important question is what will the Europeans do?

[Kablooie]

51. Also what would Brian Boitano do?

[Democracyinkind]

53. Whatever the Oligarchs bid him to do. As always.

[Benton D Struckcheon]

54. I take him at his word.

In classic revanchist fashion, he told Obama he was going to "protect" Russians in Ukraine. So, he invades the eastern side, eventually.

[arely staircase]

57. I think he will too. nt

[L0oniX]

55. Pay DU members to kiss his ass?

[sadoldgirl]

58. Whatever he may do,

I think that his popularity among russians has gone up now. That former dislike of him was a problem for him as well.