Why 2014 Could Be a Very Democratic Election

[sheshe2]

snip

There are many signals pointing to Republican vulnerability, including:

- The 2013 Elections: Chris Christie was the only statewide office-holder win for the Republicans, and the defeat of the larger of two tax-increase proposals in Colorado was the only victory for Republican ideas. But Christie's victory brought zero legislative gains and Colorado passed a more modest tax increase measure on the same ballot. In Virginia, Democrats hold every statewide office and now, as a result of this election, control the state Senate.

- The Congresses of the Past Three Years: For most of the past year, Congressional performance approval ratings have wallowed in the high single digits to the low teens, the lowest for any institution and the lowest ever for Congress. For the past three years, Congress has been the least productive of any in recent memory and perhaps in its history. The public, by modest majorities, puts the blame for the low approval and lack of production squarely on the Republican-controlled House of Representatives and their intransigent right-wing.

- Public Policy and the Lack Thereof on Three Levels: On one level, the public understands that it was the GOP that forced the government shut-down and has engaged in brinksmanship to no positive end. On another, the Republicans give the appearance of having an agenda of cruelty to the least fortunate in America -- cutting food stamps for an estimated 850,000 who need them (and wanting to cut more); opposing extended unemployment benefits, leaving 1.4 million (a number that is growing daily) without any source of income; and blocking any increase in the minimum wage -- while protecting the most fortunate. On still another level, they have been the party of "No": "No" to any further stimulus to the economy that might put many unemployed back to work and deal with the nation's crumbling infrastructure; "No" to taxes and/or loophole closings that might narrow the economic inequality gap and "No" to virtually any regulations that might mitigate the effects of climate change.

- Demography: The non-white share of the American population is growing, and the GOP is doing its best to alienate that share. Latinos voted Democratic in 2012 by a 70-30 margin. African-Americans voted by more than 90-10 for Obama. Latinos know which party has xenophobia as part of its grassroots, which party has announced that it will not consider immigration reform this year, which party has rebelled against offering the possibility of citizenship to any of the more than 11 million undocumented Latinos residing in the United States. African-Americans know which party is attempting to erect barriers to their voting participation not in requiring photo identification as a prerequisite to casting a ballot, but in making such identification difficult to get. (What the Republicans forget is that when Georgia and Indiana initiated the first round of photo ID legislation, African-Americans turned out in record numbers in both states.)

Long read, very good

MORE:http://www.huffingtonpost.com/curtis-gans/2014-elections-democrats_b_4832331.html

It's not just about the numbers, it's about who shows up.

[elleng]

1. Yes, she2, they are vulnerable,

but Dems MUST vociferously discuss, explain, and combat repugs' duplicity, and GOTV for 2014!!!

[Gothmog]

2. Good article

I really hope that this article is correct. I personally am so offended by the Congressional Republicans that I have trouble believing that they will retain the House. There is something wrong with a party being rewarded for such poor conduct

[sheshe2]

6. Thanks Gothmog.

We just need to GOTV.

[Gothmog]

7. I agree

GOTV is going to be critical. I really hope that we can win some House seats so that we can take back control of the House. It is going to be hard work with the gerrymandering but I really believe that the Congressional GOP behavior has to be an issue with some voters.

[frazzled]

3. It's completely and only about who shows up

Congressional approval ratings don't matter; people's agreement with Democratic policy positions don't matter. When it comes to elections--and especially midterm elections--all that matters is who shows up.

The New York Times published poll results that suggest the total opposite of this article, even while acknowledging that more people in the poll supported the Democrats' positions. Democrats who show up will vote Democratic, Republicans will vote Republican. But Independents in the poll—who, somewhat shockingly to me, were predominantly white, male, and under 45—were "heavily soured on Obama." Why were young white males so overly represented in this poll? I'm not sure. But they're either going to vote Republican or not vote, which is the same thing.

The main and only thing we can do is to get more minorities and Democrats to the poll--something they are notoriously bad about doing in off-year elections. If we can get them to vote, we've won. If it's a "normal" (white male) election year, we lose.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/27/us/politics/despite-rifts-gop-has-election-edge-poll-finds.html?ref=us&_r=0

[sheshe2]

8. What my article also states...

But his main thesis, grossly oversimplified, is that when predictions tend to be wrong, it is because those making them do not distinguish between the signal and the noise -- between information, data, and events that are necessary building blocks toward accurate prognostication and other data, information, events and commentary that may appear relevant to some but essentially lead one astray. This is a good framework for looking at the early predictions for the 2014 election.

The current consensus in Washington is that 2014 will be a Republican election -- that they will gain some seats in the U.S. House, that they have a realistic chance of recapturing a bare majority in the U.S. Senate and that they will continue to enjoy a sizable edge among the nation's governors and hold their own in the state legislatures.

This common wisdom is based on a series of premises, many of which are more noise than signal.

Among them: A historical record of a two-term president's party losing legislative and executive seats in almost all previous mid-term elections following his re-election; polls showing a majority opposes the president's signature achievement, the Affordable Care Act (ACA); other polls showing Obama's favorability rating at low ebb; missteps in the roll out of the ACA and promises made that citizens would be able to retain their existing health care policies if they liked them that were inaccurate and could not be kept.

snip

We do indeed need to vote, frazzled.

[William769]

4. Agreed!

[giftedgirl77]

5. Great article She, hopefully ppl will GOTV.

[sheshe2]

9. Me too, giftedgirl~