Hagel Warns Russia on Ukraine Miscalculation Amid Crimea Unrest

[Purveyor]

By James G. Neuger and Gopal Ratnam Feb 27, 2014 9:47 AM ET

U.S. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel cautioned the Kremlin against making a “miscalculation” in maneuvering ground and air forces near the border with Ukraine, which is still without a full-time government after the toppling of its pro-Russian president.

Joined by NATO allies, Hagel issued the warning after Interfax reported that Russia put fighter jets on alert, stepping up a military drill announced yesterday. Adding to tensions, the parliament of the southern Ukrainian region of Crimea was seized by armed backers of union with Russia.

“I expect Russia to be transparent about these activities, and I urge them not to take any steps that could be misinterpreted, or lead to miscalculation during a very delicate time,” Hagel told reporters after North Atlantic Treaty Organization defense ministers met Ukraine’s deputy defense minister in Brussels.

As Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk labored to put a government together, Ukrainian officials also warned Russia not to move troops from Black Sea bases in Crimea that the Kremlin operates under a leasing arrangement.

more...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-27/nato-warns-russia-against-ukraine-meddling-amid-crimea-unrest.html

[LittleBlue]

1. Seems sensible to me

If the eastern and Crimean regions declare for Russia, he's going to have to protect them from the backlash. The nightmare scenario is a civil war Syria style.

[lovuian]

2. I think we are in one serious situation

and we better be careful .....because I wouldn't underestimate Putin

[Xithras]

3. I think it depends on whether the Crimeans actually rebel.

On one side you have Crimean protesters taking over government buildings, and local Crimean governments ousting pro-Ukrainian officials in favor of pro-Russian leaders. On the other side you have Ukraine's acting President making comments about punishing those calling for Crimean independence. The potential is certainly there for violence.

I don't think Putin would get involved if everything is defused peacefully, because even he couldn't withstand the political pressure of outright invading another country without provocation. If, however, the situation does get violent and the ethnic Russians publicly call on Putin for help, I don't think he could survive politically if he DID NOT help them.

It would be a repeat of Abkhazia, without the ethnic cleansing.

[dipsydoodle]

6. Putin has no need to repsond wih his military.

Turning the gas off would be sufficient.

[Purveyor]

4. Biggest problem we have is that we have very little leaverage with Putin.

There is damned little Russia needs us for...

[TwilightGardener]

5. Carefully worded, and thankfully no references to Rocky IV.

Good job.

[dipsydoodle]

7. He knows full well that Russia carries out those exercises every two months or so.

If he didn't know that you've got a serious problem over there.