Is the EU ready for Ukrainian membership? (EU Observer OpEd)
At the 2006 EU-Ukraine summit, European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso was quite blunt: “Ukraine is not ready, and we are not ready.” Instead, the European leaders offered an enhanced cooperation agreement, which fell far short of Ukrainian expectations.
Today Ukraine is standing at the geopolitical crossroads again, but its political and economic situation is more fragile than it was in 2005. It faces challenges that need a new kind of response from the European Union. Financial aid and the association agreement is not enough to secure Ukraine’s return to Europe. The country desperately needs the prospect of EU membership.
Baltic and Balkan examples
When the Baltic States regained their independence in 1991, many analysts predicted ethnic conflict in Estonia and Latvia and even the territorial split of Estonia along ethnic lines. Both of these countries had a significant percentage of Russian speakers, who were settled there during the Soviet area. However, despite some tensions, these fears never materialized. Similar examples can be drawn from the Balkans, where the prospect of EU membership has done much to bring stability to the region.
The work is far from complete, but these examples clearly demonstrate why enlargement is still the most effective tool of EU foreign policy. There is no reason why it should not work in Ukraine as well. But is the EU ready to step up to the plate and to fulfill its original calling – to foster peace and reconciliation in Europe?
http://euobserver.com/opinion/123252
From the numbers it would seem that EU membership (and the "trade association" deals that preceded membership) were good for Baltic and Balkan citizens, but Ukraine is a bigger country with more debt than any of them had when the started the EU accession process. Plus times are different now with many Europeans being tired of the financial burdens associated with bringing poorer countries into the EU. Many Ukrainians may want to be "European" with the economy and lifestyle of most Europeans, but their history and location make that a difficult thing to accomplish.
Russia seems willing to 'bail out' Ukraine in exchange for a pro-Russian government there. So far there is little evidence that Europe is willing to do the same for a pro-European government. Many Europeans may have sympathized with the goals of the protesters in Kiev, but have little desire to provide the funding necessary to make them happen. Ukrainians are caught between a rock (Putin who is willing to spend big bucks and exert pressure to get what he wants) and Europe with its moral support but tight purse strings.
The EU was unwilling to offer Ukraine much 8 years ago (or last year for that matter). It's hard to imagine that the EU will pony up the big bucks that Putin has on offer.
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