General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsOf course democrats stand practically no chance of winning back the house this year.
thinking of the whole pragmatist/puritan split. It's fantasy land to think that's happening, whereas it's politics to simply claim it.
all you have to do as look at the districts, pay a modicum of attention to the general trends in specific regions, understand how gerrymandered the map is.
Not happening. I have one caveat, but it's not only unlikely, it's weak: It is that if something monumental happens that effects virtually all republicans in a politically disastrous way.
Reality.
Lurks Often
(5,455 posts)yeoman6987
(14,449 posts)I know it is going to be an uphill battle to take back the House, but heck we just had the House in 2010. It's not like it has been decades or something. Get Democrats to the polls is the only way to win. If we don't get the House, it is IMPARATIVE that we keep the Senate. We need to get people to the polls, pick them up, convince them, whatever it takes.
msanthrope
(37,549 posts)asses and resign from the 101st Chairborne, and agreed to be an election monitor, and agreed to help protect the vote.....jeebus, what could get done in even the reddest districts!
yeoman6987
(14,449 posts)Yep we need to get off our ass (myself included) and start volunteering in all aspects of the election.
msanthrope
(37,549 posts)we get the government we deserve.
aquart
(69,014 posts)And in every other damn year.
Bluenorthwest
(45,319 posts)turn out and lots of Democratic victory. I hope some of the more strident folks in States that still make voters line up and show ID and cast their votes on video game screens get the gumption to make some changes to their electoral laws, which are made by each State, rather than engage in whining about the problems each and every election cycle.
Lydia Leftcoast
(48,217 posts)I think that's a great tool for voter education about the candidates and issues.
Dark n Stormy Knight
(9,760 posts)our cause. And DU does not do much to change this. Look at ourActivist forum. There hasn't even been a post since January 17 and poor participation even when there are OPs. DU could do a lot more to encourage our members to group action.
wildbilln864
(13,382 posts)or is that too CT?
questionseverything
(9,656 posts)reporting pages too
http://www.bradblog.com/?p=7875
Results Drastically Changed
The election numbers have radically changed in Monroe County since the May 18th election. At least as reported on the SoS website, and as confirmed by local officials.
It's not all that unusual for the unofficial numbers to move a bit following election day, as absentee and provisional ballots are counted and added in to the totals, and as precinct numbers are double-checked for accuracy in the post-election canvass. It is, however, unusual, for vote totals to get a great deal smaller rather than larger in the days following the election. And that's what seems to have happened in Monroe County --- radically so.
Somehow, more than a thousand votes disappeared entirely, as the election results in the Dem and GOP Senate primaries have almost entirely changed.
wildbilln864
(13,382 posts)there can be no democracy!
Lurks Often
(5,455 posts)and we may even make some gains in the House, but I agree with the OP that it is unrealistic to expect to gain back control of the House. Historically mid-term elections rarely favor the party in the White House:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_midterm_election
Based on the past 100 years at the link, no party that controlled the White House picked up more then 9 seats in the House. If historical trends remain reasonably accurate we'll be lucky to keep the Senate.
Additionally, the retirement of prominent, high ranking Democrats in the House and/or Senate, suggests to me that they don't expect to regain control of the House. Why would someone in line for majority chairman of an important committee or sub-committee retire if they thought their party was going to regain control of the House?
RoverSuswade
(641 posts)About every day on Hardball Tweety devotes mega-minutes on WHO WILL BE PRESIDENT IN 2017! Hell it doesn't matter. If the pubs have veto-proof majorities in the House & Senate (which could happen). It boggles my mind that the republican-tea-church party has elaborate methods for getting their people to the polls in midterm elections to "vote against the devil-loving democrats." Pastors rail about it the Sunday before election and that sends the congregation to the polls on Tuesday. The result is a "GOP sweep" as it's usually called. You never hear the liberal talking heads encouraging voter drives, organizations that help get voters to the polls, etc: All the flyers I get at home are from republicans saying what a great job the GOP is doing for you. The Democratic National Committee needs help.
Scuba
(53,475 posts)aquart
(69,014 posts)Scuba
(53,475 posts)ProSense
(116,464 posts)"Not happening. I have one caveat, but it's not only unlikely, it's weak: It is that if something monumental happens that effects virtually all republicans in a politically disastrous way.
Reality."
...hope something "effects" Republicans.
Hope. Reality!
BootinUp
(47,165 posts)MineralMan
(146,317 posts)Rather than trying to depress the vote, why not promote this, cali?
GOTV 2014 and Beyond!
11 Bravo
(23,926 posts)MineralMan
(146,317 posts)It can be difficult, though.
JNelson6563
(28,151 posts)MineralMan
(146,317 posts)Capt. Obvious
(9,002 posts)it's the left wing's fault.
HappyMe
(20,277 posts)Raising the white flag now is pointless.
JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)LonePirate
(13,425 posts)With each passing year, those gerrymandered Republican districts become a little less red. A +12 Republican district in 2012 may only be +9 or +10 district now. That will only put a few seats in play which is offset by the reduced turnout of a non-presidential election. At least 2014 will not be the disastrous wipeout that was 2010.
Clinton running in 2016 is a game changer, though. She will sweep an extra 25 or more Democrats into the House so we can send the Republicans back to minority status in the House, possibly forever given changing demographics.
democratisphere
(17,235 posts)Democrats need new representation in Congress, the old guard just is not getting it done.
liberal N proud
(60,336 posts)MineralMan
(146,317 posts)in 2010. Redistricting took place. In 2012, we elected a Democratic state legislature. Both houses. Not every state enables gerrymandering.
JNelson6563
(28,151 posts)Wouldn't it be wonderful if *we* got to draw the lines next time around? Here's the catch, we have to bust ass every two years from now till then to be in that position.
Sad to see so very many DUers so eager to curl up and accept defeat without even a fight.
Julie
MineralMan
(146,317 posts)were the ones who got to do the redistricting. Even in Minnesota, the Republicans gained majorities in both state houses. We took them back in 2012, but Minnesota has a great redistricting system, so there was no gerrymandering. Every election matters, and every election deserves our best GOTV efforts.
GOTV 2014 and Beyond!
Fumesucker
(45,851 posts)That would be the Democratic wing of the Democratic party becomes ascendant over the accommodationists.
Tolkien would be spinning in his grave.
Laelth
(32,017 posts)-Laelth
FSogol
(45,488 posts)When people work together, amazing things can happen. Ignore the malcontents and Eeyores and GOTV
Le Taz Hot
(22,271 posts)California has at least two Congressional Seats that are turnable: CA-21 and another one I, of course, can't remember right now. Menopausal moment. Think I'll go to the California forum and start a thread about this.
MineralMan
(146,317 posts)that can be turned. We'll be working on that here, instead of making stupid statement that depress the Democratic turnout.
That's a promise.
Le Taz Hot
(22,271 posts)Cali's may be popular on DU but I'm pretty sure she doesn't have the power to depress voter turnout. I believe a little perspective is called for here, wouldn't you agree?
MineralMan
(146,317 posts)A strong GOTV effort depends on all Democratic activists working toward a high turnout. Discouraging Democrats from working toward that effort does depress the turnout.
If we turn out Democratic voters in numbers that are not typical of mid-term elections, we can, indeed, retake the House.
GOTV 2014 and Beyond!
Le Taz Hot
(22,271 posts)thread would be in order.
Btw, I'm an activist but not a "Democratic activist." Alienating your allies in an election year probably isn't a good idea.
MineralMan
(146,317 posts)I sometimes do counter threads, though. Not this time, I think.
JNelson6563
(28,151 posts)try Kos.
Julie
MineralMan
(146,317 posts)keep beating my head against the wall right here.
msanthrope
(37,549 posts)the franchise???
Jeebus.... have you ever been to a Ward meeting???
MineralMan
(146,317 posts)cali's prediction from coming true. I'm in!
GOTV 2014 and Beyond!
msanthrope
(37,549 posts)FSogol
(45,488 posts)msanthrope
(37,549 posts)that need to be counted.
MineralMan
(146,317 posts)Giving up, though, is not an option. Giving up guarantees that we lose.
Some red districts are vulnerable, if there is a very successful GOTV effort.
cali
(114,904 posts)We elect actual Progressives. Democrats and VT Progressive Party members. We hold both houses of the VT legislature with supermajorities. there is exactly no competition for our AL House seat. It's safely held by a Progressive, Peter Welch.
questionseverything
(9,656 posts)il-13 was actually the downstate dem carve out
spreads over 14 counties ,includes 4 universities
I think I found the candidate I want to work for (unless I find he supports the illegal nsa stuff)
http://georgegollin.com/
HEALTH CARE
Despite the problems with the rollout, I support the Affordable Care Act Obamacare as a good start on solving a problem weve been grappling with for decades: ensuring that the basic right of health care is universally available in our country.
The poor execution of the Federal portal website is unacceptable, and points to the need for more technical and scientific expertise in government. We need a focused and effective effort to fix the problems. Calls by Republicans and unfortunately some Democrats to scrap or delay Obamacare are not helpful. We are Americans: we dont throw up our hands when we face a setback, we buckle down and fix it.
Looking forward, in Congress Ill work to expand coverage, including provisions to allow those 55 and over to buy in to Medicare and a public option for those under 55.
Further reductions in cost, as well as improvements in the availability of quality medical care, are possible through eventual adoption of an expanded Medicare for All system. Medicare is by far the most efficient health care financing system in America today.
Such a change would have the added benefit of spurring growth by separating health care from employment, allowing those who wish to start new businesses to do so without fear of changes in their coverage.
- See more at: http://georgegollin.com/issues/health-care/#sthash.ofz4Rwqp.dpuf
/////////////////////////////
he is a long shot because the party establishment wants this law and order type but it is worth a try
JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)malaise
(269,054 posts)Capt. Obvious
(9,002 posts)*The is trademarked by the BOG. Any use of the without expressed written permission and implied permission is prohibited.
Bobbie Jo
(14,341 posts)your bizarre obsession with all things BOG?
Seriously.
dionysus
(26,467 posts)Jeff In Milwaukee
(13,992 posts)There is nothing - not one thing - that could happen that would make the GOP base desert their candidate. You could present videotape of Ted Cruz ass-fucking an illegal immigrant abortionist, and the sheep would still turn out and vote for him. They just don't care, which is why some of the most deplorable people you've ever encountered manage to get elected to office on the Republican Ticket.
Independent voters? They're like herding cats. Anything that would happen might drive some to the Democrats, but possibly just as many would (showing their true colors) vote Republican.
Not saying that I'm pessimistic about 2014. If we turn out, we can win.
warrant46
(2,205 posts)Where we have Scott Walker,with the help of the Koch Bros and the catlick and other fundy churches who would elect Ed Gein if he were a repuke.
A state that has voted in Every election since 1988 for a Democrat to be President
that currently has 5 U.S. congress RePuke reps out of 8 due to gerrymandering
Jeff In Milwaukee
(13,992 posts)The who friggin' state is bi-polar or something.
warrant46
(2,205 posts)Now we will have to deal with Walker again---too bad the Party is putting up Burke to take on the Darth Koch hand puppet Walker
Jeff In Milwaukee
(13,992 posts)That if you went out to a Waupaca County diary farm and scooped up a bucket of warm, steaming cow flop off the floor, I would vote for the bucket of shit over Walker. Not having a governor at all would be preferable to having this tool in Madison.
warrant46
(2,205 posts)Totally repuke they would vote for Hitler if he had an (R) next to his name
Good Comeback though
Jeff In Milwaukee
(13,992 posts)Of course, this comes from the guy who lives in Waukesha County...
Atman
(31,464 posts)Facebook friend, friend from political ad agency...you might recognize the name from NPR. I received this this morning, but I'm already committed.
"We're looking to bring on a couple smart, hard-working, detail-oriented folks with at least a cycle of campaign experience. Shoot me an email if you know someone who should be our next hire."
Not going to post the particulars here because of the shitty lurkers we have, but PM me if you really, REALLY have experience and are looking to work the 2014 elections.
woo me with science
(32,139 posts)Corporate Republicans and corporate Democrats will collude, again, to ensure a government closely divided between Reds and Blues. Too much apparent power on either side would create a very uncomfortable situation in which corporate politicians would be expected to start responding to the will of the People.
We have seen this game before:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1014&pid=337938
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=4312538
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021809132
Response to woo me with science (Reply #38)
Post removed
polichick
(37,152 posts)Laelth
(32,017 posts)-Laelth
JI7
(89,252 posts)libtodeath
(2,888 posts)People hate what the repukes stand for,we just have to make sure every one wears the GOP brand like badge.
Chorophyll
(5,179 posts)Should I stick my head in the oven now, or take the easy way out and just not bother to vote or support any candidates?
Bluenorthwest
(45,319 posts)The day of Chris Christie's reelection, folks on DU saw him as so popular, so undefeatable that they expected him to be the nominee for his Party, they were certain there was no reason to strongly oppose his election, no reason to strongly support his Democratic opponent, 'he's too good, she's a bad candidate we know the future'. Democrats endorsed that fucker. 'Deep pockets' excused themselves from backing the Democrat because Christie was a 'strong train running' they said. A month later Christie was in ruins.
John Edwards was a 'man of the people' extremely honest, opposed to marriage equality because 'well, I'm the son of a Deacon, traditional marriage is just a part of me, one man and one woman is how I see it'. Yeah.
Hillary Clinton, the 08 nomination was hers for the taking.
Obama? America, they said, was not 'ready'. Not a chance.
Marriage equality? Oh my God. The 'pragmatic' preached that we had to do Civil Unions 'for a few decades' because marriage equality was impossible for a generation. At least. God is in the mix, after all. They knew. They could see. Pragmatically and all.
Marijuana reform? 'It will never be legal in my lifetime' is perhaps the single most oft repeated prediction of my lifetime. Shout out to Denver.
I could spend hours like this.
RoverSuswade
(641 posts)Hell, with Twitter, Fuckbook, and YouTube - it only takes ONE HOUR to destroy a person. No one is safe.
durablend
(7,460 posts)He's been arrested and frog-marched out of office?
I don't see him going anywhere.
Marr
(20,317 posts)that could flip a map this gerrymandered is a positive agenda that the GOP is seen as preventing-- and I don't mean some vague bullshit about "jobs". I mean something concrete and specific. But I doubt that our establishment Democrats have enough credibility left to inspire that sort of hope. People just aren't as stupid as Third Way types like to think, and they do notice when they're sold out repeatedly.
Our party had such an opportunity with health care, but they chose to bail out the insurance industry and hand guaranteed to profits to billionaires instead. If they'd been publicly pushing for Single Payer, educating the public and just pushing it all the time, the map would've changed over the course of an election cycle or two.
bvar22
(39,909 posts)"I've seen it happen time after time. When the Democratic candidate allows himself to be put on the defensive and starts apologizing for the New Deal and the Fair Deal, and says he really doesn't believe in them, he is sure to lose. The people don't want a phony Democrat. If it's a choice between a genuine Republican, and a Republican in Democratic clothing, the people will choose the genuine article, every time; that is, they will take a Republican before they will a phony Democrat, and I don't want any phony Democratic candidates in this campaign."
---President Harry Truman
Laelth
(32,017 posts)-Laelth
aquart
(69,014 posts)That sort of thing?
bemildred
(90,061 posts)(I like bald assertions of omniscience too.)
Response to bemildred (Reply #48)
Name removed Message auto-removed
Iggo
(47,558 posts)Why was I not alerted?!?!?!?!?!
Jamastiene
(38,187 posts)It is keeping the country "represented" by more right wing politicians than we really want, in an awful lot of cases. Most people only look at the overall "red state" and "blue state" maps. They aren't paying attention to the local level, in districts that have been redrawn to favor the Republicans, especially in "blue" enclaves, where we are stuck with Republican Congressmen now because our districts have been redrawn so sharply. In my district, we have been gerrymandered to the point that we are now stuck with a Republican Congressman even though we have CONSISTENTLY voted "blue" for decades (in my county, it goes back further than even that). It is one issue that is destroying the country quietly right under our noses.
global1
(25,253 posts)given all the crazies they have in the Party. Many have begun to realize that they can't stand behind the Party because they wind up shooting themselves in the foot and really vote against themselves by voting Repug. Many of them have started to identify themselves as Independents and some have said that they will even sit out the 2014 elections because they just can't continue to vote against themselves. Some have said that they'd even vote Dem.
Just like for years the Repug's MO was to get as many one issue voters to vote Repug and peel off votes that way - that same strategy has started to erode and it's starting to work against them. Many of those one issue voters are now looking at the bigger picture. In fact - the Dems could possibly use the same one issue strategy now to get people to vote Dem.
When I think about all the things that Repugs are against - it's a wonder that anyone would continue to vote Repug.
- they are against raising the minimum wage
- they are against continuing unemployment insurance
- they are against affordable health care
- they are against LGBT issues
- they are against doing anything to do with immigration
- they are against women's issues - equal pay; right to choose; etc
- they are taking away people's right to vote
- they are denying climate change
- they don't care about the environment
- they are for big business, corporate welfare, etc
- they want to change Social Security, Medicare, and basically any programs that help the poor, the elderly, the student, the hungry
- they shut down the government
- they haven't done anything to help create jobs
- they aren't for shoring up our crumbling infrastructure
- they aren't for renewable energy
- they have stonewalled just about everything
We can probably go on and on to add to this list that they are against - and we could probably start to put a list together of what they are for - and we'd find out that what they are for only benefits the rich and the corporations.
I ask the question - given such a list - who wants to still be called a Repug? Who wants to vote for such a party that literally is against or negative on anything that can really help the common American and jump start this economy again and are for only those things that benefit the wealthy?
If we can't - as Dems - take these issues and parlay them into winning back the House and maintaining and increasing our numbers in the Senate - then - yeah - we might as well give up right now. But I say - No - don't give up.
Cuz People - it's ours for the taking now - we need to take these issues and talk them up and start changing the psyche of the current Repug voter.
We need to get all Dem voters out to vote and we need to bring along a bunch of current Repug voters that are now questioning their alliance with the Repugs. Yeah - districts might be gerrymandered - but many Repug voters in those districts are ripe for the taking.
We have acknowledged that there are States in this country that are on the cusp of turning Blue - because the composition of voters are changing.
Let's face it many of the staunch Repugs - are old, white, rich and their numbers are dwindling.
We can do this people. Just don't throw in the towel just yet and don't sit it out because you think that we can't do it.
That's what the media is trying to do now. They are trying to create this sense of hopelessness in Dem voters to get them to sit out 2014. We can't let MSM and the Corporations continue to do this to us.
GOTV - and get out as many of your friends, family and associates to vote as well. Hell - talk this up with your Repug friends and make them see the light.
I recently heard Charley Crist talk about his change from being a Repug. One of the things that stuck with me is that he voted Repug because his folks were Repugs. As he really started to analyze and dig into his beliefs and feelings - he had to make the change. How many other people out their vote the Repug persuasion because their folks did?
Recently - I've seen other prominent Repugs - make the change too. It's doable people - we can do this.
Don't give up.
Laelth
(32,017 posts)-Laelth
L0oniX
(31,493 posts)Pretzel_Warrior
(8,361 posts)gotcha.
WorseBeforeBetter
(11,441 posts)and other tight Senate races. Can she pull it off? Perhaps. But it's going to be a Koch-fueled battle royale...
Coyotl
(15,262 posts)iamthebandfanman
(8,127 posts)lets just lose more and more seats and act like the house will never matter again in the history of American politics.
I don't care what the political landscape looks like at the moment due to redistricting.. that kind of defeatist attitude, regardless the mountain needed to be climbed, is unhealthy :p
Notafraidtoo
(402 posts)When Republicans cant win a majority anywhere anymore. I see a future of wilderness for the party of hate, with the absence of the southern strategy they have been relying on for 40 years what can they possibly do to win majority's, even their gerrymandering is weakening.
LiberalAndProud
(12,799 posts)Nebraska's 2nd congressional district encompasses the core of the Omaha metropolitan area. It includes all of Douglas County, which includes Omaha, and the urbanized areas of Sarpy County. In the United States House of Representatives, it is currently represented by Lee Terry, a Republican.
-snip-
In 2011, Nebraska lawmakers moved Offutt Air Force Base and the town of Bellevue an area with a large minority population out of the Omaha-based 2nd District and shifted in the Republican-heavy Omaha suburbs in Sarpy County. The move was correctly expected to dilute the city's urban Democratic vote,[4] a practice called Gerrymandering among its critics.
Nebraska State Senator Bob Krist of Omaha had said in defense of the redistricting that the switch would help ensure the future of Offutt by engaging two congressmen in the recurring fight to keep the base off a closing list.[5]
In the 2008 United States presidential election, ...
Obama's victory in the 2nd district meant that Nebraska's electoral delegation was split for the first time ever. It also marked the first Nebraskan electoral vote for a Democrat since 1964.[2] By contrast, in 2012 Gov. Mitt Romney won the 2nd district, as well as the overall statewide vote and the electoral votes of the first and third districts.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nebraska%27s_2nd_congressional_district
Gerrymandering is a ... (I need a different word)
JoePhilly
(27,787 posts)Pragmatists keep working. They get as much as they can, then go for more. And even if it is unlikely that we'll take the House, we'll work to take back as many seats as we can. And we'll do it again in the next cycle. And the next.
Meanwhile, the purists will sit over on the sidelines whining that progress isn't happening fast enough. They'll threaten to stay home. They claim that TPTB control everything and that we might as well all just give up.
They'll keep their outrage meter pegged at 11, and there constructive action meter pegged at zero.
If pouting generated an income, they'd be in the 1% by now.
Number23
(24,544 posts)Every word, truth. Well done
struggle4progress
(118,295 posts)bluestate10
(10,942 posts)My sense is that Democrats have an excellent chance or winning an enormous percentage of purple districts. Those districts alone will provide Democrats with the majority. And with few BlueDog Democrats in the caucus, that majority should be sufficient for Democrats to give the President support and help vault the country farther forward.
Hippo_Tron
(25,453 posts)The good news is that a lot of people will benefit from the ACA. The bad news is that it will be impossible to pass anything progressives want until 2022 or possibly even later. The other good news is that we're making some good strides on certain things in spite of congress.