2 non-surprises: TX to smear Wendy DAVIS "till November". & Politico says her chances are "TINY"
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http://www.texastribune.org/2014/02/03/democratic-spies-overhear-abbott-davis-controversy/
[font size=5]Secret Audio Stirs Controversy in Governor's Race[/font]
As the controversy over Democrat Wendy Davis’ biography hit a crescendo late last month, Republican Attorney General Greg Abbott publicly distanced himself from the attacks on her.
But at a private fundraiser near Austin, Abbott made what sounded to Democrats like a reference to the acrimonious reaction playing out across social media, and he vowed to keep pushing that “conversation” all the way to November, according to newly released audio secretly recorded by his opponents.
“We’re going to heat up this campaign, and it’s going to turn red hot as we keep Texas red,” Abbott said on Jan. 21 at a fundraiser in Wimberley. “If anyone follows Twitter, you’ve seen an interesting conversation over the past 24 hours. We’re going to keep that conversation up for nine months.” ....
It's the third time in two weeks that a secret recording is stirring controversy in the Texas governor's race. Both sides are touting footage or recordings obtained by so-called trackers — political operatives who infiltrate their opponents’ events to obtain damaging information or quotes about them.
Conservative activist James O’Keefe, for example, recently distributed a video that purported to show Democrats mocking Abbott’s disability. Abbott has used a wheelchair ever since a freak accident in 1984. At one point on the video, Democratic volunteers at a voter registration training meeting can be heard discussing Abbott's disability.
At another point, an unidentified woman is heard criticizing Abbott's looks, and a man appears to derisively laugh when she notes he's in a wheelchair. However, the raw video indicates that the laughter was selectively edited into the clip. The Austin American-Statesman compared the raw and edited videos and found there were distortions. ....
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/02/most-overrated-races-2014-102991.html?ml=po_r
Read more: http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/02/most-overrated-races-2014-102991.html#ixzz2sShCHvs3
[font size=5]The Six Most Overrated Races of 2014[/font]
With the midterm election three-quarters of a year away, the political press is understandably focusing on the races with the biggest personalities and most dramatic storylines. But just because a race makes for great copy in February doesn’t mean it’s going to be all that compelling in November. ....
Assuming, as we do, that McConnell makes it to the general election, he faces an appealing foe in Grimes, who (with the help of her father, a former state Democratic Party chairman) knows her way around the Bluegrass State. In the right year, under the most favorable circumstances, one could conceive of Grimes ending McConnell’s career. But 2014 is not that year, with a Democratic president on the ropes in the red states. Even factoring in “McConnell fatigue” after his five terms, is it really reasonable to expect the Republican Senate nominee to lose an election where Obama’s 2013 approval rating (according to Gallup) was only 35 percent, among the lowest in the country? Always possible, but not especially plausible.
This is all to say that while the Kentucky Senate race might be the most-watched contest right now, it probably shouldn’t be by the fall. Control of the Senate will likely be decided elsewhere. For example, we suspect the side that wins two of the following three currently Democratic-held seats—Alaska, Louisiana and North Carolina—will capture control of the Senate. ....
It isn’t just the presidency. The last five Texas Democratic gubernatorial nominees have lost by 7.6, 37.1, 17.9, 9.2 and 12.7 points. There’s no compelling reason to believe that Davis will be able to do much better against Abbott, even with her high profile and prolific fundraising. The national calculus also isn’t right for Davis: Hispanic population growth aside, Davis’s best chance of winning would develop if there were a deeply unpopular Republican in the White House fueling a Democratic wave. In other words, Davis is probably either eight years too late (2006), or four or eight years too early (2018 or 2022, with the untested assumption of a Republican in the White House). As 1972’s landslide presidential loser George McGovern once said, “You know, sometimes, when they say you’re ahead of your time, it’s just a polite way of saying you have a real bad sense of timing.” ....
New York governor: The Democrat, incumbent Andrew Cuomo, seems just about invincible, ....
Virginia Senate: ... A key point in Warner’s favor: Even if Obama’s approval sinks, Warner ran a dozen points ahead of the president in the sunnier conditions of 2008. He has significant crossover appeal, as evidenced by his recent endorsement from his predecessor, former senator and moderate Republican John Warner (no relation). ... ....
Ohio and Wisconsin governors: Govs. John Kasich and Scott Walker ....
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