How Much Weed Will the U.S. Need?

[RainDog]

Last edited Mon Jan 27, 2014, 01:58 AM - Edit history (4)

...to meet an estimate for demand? Bennyboy got me on this subject. The figure for cannabis is based upon vaping or smoking, not edibles, tinctures, etc., but we can assume some of that is included anyway. Check my math! I'm a notorious math moron.

The figures here are from USA Quick Facts and Gallup.

2013 Population: 316,128,839 million

2012 (last figure) percentage of the population under 18: 23.5% (I'll round that up to 25%)

Population over the age of 18: 237,100,000 million (rounded to 75%)

A 2013 Gallup Poll indicated that 7% of those surveyed currently used cannabis. (From this poll, 13% of liberals admitted to currently using cannabis, 8% of moderates and 2% of conservatives.)

So, let's double that figure and say 15% of the population would be cannabis users, although I would be inclined to think the figure will be higher, especially among the over 65 group, as they learn of the medical benefits for diseases of aging like arthritis, diabetes, neuropathies, alzheimers...so, let's add another 5% to account for this group and conservatives who didn't tell the truth...and for some of the additional plant material that would go into tinctures, etc. All figures are rounded up.

Estimated percentage of cannabis users @15%: 35,565,000 million

Est. @20% of the adult population: 47,420,000 million

Estimated cannabis usage at 1 ounce per month/20% of the population: 47,420,000 million ozs.

Estimated cannabis usage in lbs. per month: 30 million lbs.

Estimated cannabis (in pounds) for the American market for one year: 360 million pounds.

The figures, below, are taken from a weed business blog. I have no knowledge of this irl, so if anyone thinks these figures are off, speak. They assume the following:

Est. no. of lbs. per acre: 625 lbs.
Est. for marijuana @ 10,000 plants per acre @ 72 in. (6 ft) spacing per row

Est. number of acres required to grow 360 million lbs per year @ 625 lb per acre: 576,000 acres.
(this assumes a single grow season per year of an outdoor grow)

edit to remove projections from weed industry blog

With legalization, cut the profit to producers by three-fourths to $1500 to $50/oz and, thus $800.00 per lb.
360 million pounds per year @ $800.00 per lb: $288 million BILLION for the producer.
Another quarter for the sellers/per lb: $288 billion for the seller
Another quarter for tax revenues/per lb $288 billion to the govt.

That would keep cannabis at the price of $375 $100.00 per oz to the consumer, or $94 $25.00 per quarter oz. Those in CO have reported previous sales at $25 for a quarter oz. (or approximately a third of the price in the current illegal market, on avg. and guesstimating.)

Did I do the math right, teacher?
edit to answer: no. thanks coyotl

edit: adjusted figures for sales

[In_The_Wind]

1. The price you quoted is far too high per oz.

I'm horrible at math so I'll just be happy when I can grow 6 plants.

[RainDog]

6. I thought so too, but it was from a weed biz blog

so I kept it as is, but excluded one quarter of the price when accounting for profits for producers, sellers and the govt.

So that would really make it about $280.00 per oz, or $4,480.00/lb - which is still too high, I think, for a legal mkt.

CO sellers started at $25.00 for a quarter oz BEFORE TAXES, afaik - or $100.00 an oz, then doubled or tripled prices as they ran out of supply.

[tridim]

2. Think big.. How much will the entire Earth need?

Answer: Lots.

I plan on helping fill the need as much as I can.

[legcramp]

3. And you can bet someone like Inbev, R.J.Reynolds or some other large company

Will step up and become the Walmart of pot once it's legal nationally.

Too much money to be made and too much tax revenue for the government to ignore.

[1awake]

4. Your title sounds like a nursery rhyme...

How much weed will the US need if the US should need weed!

Sorry... weird evening.

[RainDog]

16. I thought the same thing

and laughed.

hail, fellow woodchuck rhymer!

[Egnever]

5. an ounce a month is a lot of pot

I doubt usage will be anywhere near that. And those prices are insane.

[RainDog]

7. But if someone makes edibles or tinctures

They could use an ounce of plant material much faster than if smoked or vaped.

[Egnever]

10. yea but I doubt that will ever be the norm

and certainly not at those prices LOL.

[RainDog]

18. yeah

Colorado currently has a 25% tax, iirc, for cannabis sales. And customers would see a mark up in the price from producer to seller.

So, the quote of $25/quarter oz is before tax.

[wildbilln864]

118. about what it is around here....

$25/quarter oz.
sometimes a little more.

[In_The_Wind]

9. Yes, that price was double what it should be.

An ounce a week is about right.

[RainDog]

22. Ounce a week?

I estimated a quarter per week/ounce per month.

If it were legal, however, I would buy or grow some 50/50 (THC/CBD) to mix with hemp oil to use as body lotion, etc. Before bedtime...

[In_The_Wind]

36. Well

Let's look at from the hand rolled side: an ounce should yield about 50 (or so joints).
I'm going to guess that an average smoker will smoke one an hour, a lightweight might relight for up to two hours. So ... two to three joints per night during the normal workweek. Just under one third of the ounce will be consumed before Friday night is over. Follow my logic?

[LordGlenconner]

121. Follow your logic? Not at all

Your "average smoker", whatever that is supposed to mean, is unlikely to smoke a joint an hour unless they have an endless supply of money and and endless supply of free time on their hands.

Frankly, your post sounds like a RW characterization of the average "dope smoker" rather than anything based on reality. Regardless, it doesn't seem like you have a lot of experience with it at all.

[In_The_Wind]

124. I've known smokers since '66.

... ... ...

[LordGlenconner]

125. They must have a lot of spare time and money on their hands

Or smoke really shitty weed to need to smoke a J an hour.

[In_The_Wind]

126. Hahaha

The good stuff cost way too much when ya have lots of time to kill.

It's almost stress pot (ya get all stressed out wondering when you'll feel the buzz) but surprisingly pleasant when a good harvest comes in.

It will be wonderful when individuals will be allowed to grow for personal use.

[RainDog]

131. I think you're talking about homegrown

rather than retail.

Retail cannabis will be routinely sensemilla (seedless) with trimmed buds, no or only one major stem, with genetics that can be traced for the strain or the hybrid via gas chromatography, with a statement listing the level of THC, CBD, and other cannabinoids as research goes foward.

This cannabis will also be harvested at the peak of THC production, cured to protect against mold, and will have a specific name that consumers can know will have a specific effect, more or less.

What's done now, iow, in the western states who have been at the forefront of cannabis breeding, along with The Netherlands and BC Canada.

People can create better homegrown by purchasing better seeds and removing any male plants or hermaphroditic shoots long before flowering.

[In_The_Wind]

133. The ability to buy retail pot has been my soapbox for many years.

I'm all for it.

[RainDog]

135. I just meant in terms of quantity

I think the homegrown you're talking about is probably less potent than the retail that's now the norm in legal states. That would account for larger amounts of use. Less potent means more plant material.

[Go Vols]

136. Homegrown here aint what it was 30

years ago.It rivals anything in High Times now.



http://cannacentral.com/news/what-us-state-produces-the-most-marijuana-per-person/

[RainDog]

142. productivity isn't the same as the level of THC, tho

I was just speculating about the use of an ounce per week vs. per month.

People I know who currently use mj never smoke joints. They all use chillums or pipes, etc. and one or two hits and that's it.

[RainDog]

154. no doubt

I was trying to reconcile an ounce a week... but wasn't that for two people? So really 1/2 oz a week? Still sounds like a lot, but it's not like I'm an expert on the subject. Anyway, it's this variation that gets to an avg, not that everyone would be the same.

[Ed Suspicious]

31. That's insane! Someone I know who is not exactly close to me, but has been open about usage said

they've smoked about an ounce per month for years. He seems to use at most times. I would have to think average usage would be less than that.

[In_The_Wind]

40. There are people who smoke more.

Older smokers (who are retired with time on their hands) may consume more.
At least that's what I've heard.

[madokie]

108. If its good weed

up to when I quit toking I would go through a quarter oz in about a month and I was smoking pretty much all day and evening. I hadn't rolled a joint in years rather using a small brass bowl taking a hit here and there. If its good weed thats all you need or can handle. for me anyway.

Growing good weed is definitely a science. Something I haven't done since I settled down 23 years ago.

[In_The_Wind]

123. Pipes are far more economical.

A discarded seed that didn't the birds didn't eat grew a five foot bush that was awesome.

[madokie]

132. That really makes it good

[Bennyboy]

34. I'd say that's about right.

my average use is around that. And for most I know, that is low. Some can make an 1/8 last year or more....

[Bjorn Against]

8. Only 7% of the population uses Cannabis?

I have a really hard time believing the number is really that low, I would guess the real number is at least three times that much and likely more.

[RainDog]

12. Based on a 2013 Gallup Poll

http://www.gallup.com/poll/163835/tried-marijuana-little-changed-80s.aspx

However, since cannabis is illegal in 48 states, I would imagine the figure is lower than the actual number of users, and I think the number of users will increase with legalization... so, 20% of the population might not be that far off.

[Bennyboy]

37. I'd say that's about right.

20% is about right. Around here it is like 70% but that's CA for ya. Everyone puffs here it seems. The Elks puff, the bikers and car people puff and the music fans puff.

[Blue_In_AK]

11. There is a simple solution to all of this.

GROW YOUR OWN.

[RainDog]

13. Yes. All laws need to allow people to grow their own

Just as people grow their own tomatoes. But not everyone will, as we see with tomatoes.

[Blue_In_AK]

15. True enough,

but it is so satisfying. I guess I just have a green thumb, and I like knowing where my "produce" comes from.

[RainDog]

19. I love to garden too

But it's illegal where I am, and we have planes that fly over our city looking for grow rooms, according to a lawyer here... I know this in a weird roundabout way b/c one of the planes was "outed" when the feds were looking for someone connected to a left wing group they considered terrorists - two of them, ELF and ALF, who were both very active here for a while - burned down a house, or something like that.

Anyway, I'm not willing to take chances like that while my state is illegal.

HOWEVER, once legal, I would definitely see what I could do. I'd like to plant/try some Durban.

Has anyone here ever tried Durban?

[Blue_In_AK]

58. I'm lucky that Alaska has had decriminalized weed since 1975.

We can grow up to 25 plants for personal use,

[shanti]

84. not possible for everyone to do

mm is legal here in ca, but in my small city, they've made people get a license to grow, and the price of this license is exhorbitant, just not worth it. besides that, not everyone has a green thumb.

[Lint Head]

14. Over here!

[Bennyboy]

17. Not will but does......

Just because of legalization, nobody is going to go out and smoke more or people start smoking. At least after a while, once the novelty wears off.

So a certain percentage smoke now, a certain percentage will smoke then. Might increase 1 or 2 percent but probably not 10....

And the math, you don't take it producer pricing (about 200 an oz right now and see 600 QP's all the time....) to consumer pricing (the consumer pricing is about right).

[RainDog]

20. Yeah, I saw that

but just went with the figures from the biz weed blog.

You're my inspiration, Bennyboy!

[RainDog]

21. Oh, and I think a lot of people are lying to Gallup n/t

[RainDog]

23. Durban

I mentioned it in another post, but let me ask you directly - have you ever grown/used Durban?

I am curious, Durban.

[Go Vols]

151. Its not as good as it gets

by far.

[RainDog]

155. I'm interested b/c it's a pure sativa

and the landrace is from part of the world where humans were, early on, using cannabis for religious ceremonies, etc.

Just curious. One of these days I'd like to be a tourist and see what the world is like outside the cage of prohibition.

[frwrfpos]

24. the reason the war on drugs will continue

especially and specifically on weed is because it can be grown easily and freely(relatively) The money changers(jesus reference) do not like that at all. They hate not being able to profit off of people. They also not being able to hurt people in the process. Most of all, a plant that allows people the world over to feel good must not be allowed, as the sociopaths love human suffering.

A plant that grows with little attention and could be cultivated for little money or expertise is a dire threat to sociopaths. Unfortunately, sociopaths put themselves in positions of power in all levels of governance.

[RainDog]

28. The war on weed is ending

It may take some states longer than others, but the war on weed is lost and the govt. knows this.

Now they are looking at the revenue CO has taken in and want to be able to generate funds via a tax on cannabis. Much better, imo, than the millions wasted on a victimless crime.

New sales will invigorate a slow market when each state legalizes. People with money who have been holding on to it in this uncertain economy will be motivate to invest in a legal start up market.

Plants that are grown for recreational use are nothing like ditch weed that can still be found along roadsides. And breeders pride themselves on creating new hybrid strains... so that's another market in development and seed sales.

But the reason, the real reason cannabis is going to be legal is because of a little girl named Charlotte.

She has been the unstoppable force to end the drug war.

[Go Vols]

152. Breeding FTW

[wildbilln864]

156. Thanks. I had to look Charlotte up.

reminded me of little Cash Hyde.

" Doctors said 2-year-old Cash Hyde would likely die after they found a stage 4 brain tumor surrounding his optic nerve just a year ago this week.

And he nearly did. After being subjected to seven different chemotherapy drugs, the little boy from Missoula, Montana suffered septic shock, a stroke and pulmonary hemorrhaging.

Cash was so sick he went 40 days without eating. His organs were threatening to shut down. His father, Mike Hyde, intervened, slipping cannabis oil into his son's feeding tube. "

[RainDog]

157. His story makes me cry

Thanks for posting this one. I remember when his father admitted what he had done.
http://www.cashhydefoundation.org/

Charlotte

[wildbilln864]

158. yes

heart breaking. thanks for the link. it's just amazing to me that the two most deadly drugs(alcohol & tobacco) are legal and a plant that contains a compound able to relieve pain and suffering across the board and has never killed anyone is still illegal.

[morningfog]

25. The US will need no more than it needs now.

The prices will fluctuate as taxes are considered. But, I expect the price will stabilize near where it is now, which is dependent on the quality as much as anything else.

[LiberalEsto]

26. They can have my share

Stuff gave me sinus infections and made me paranoid. Gave it up many years ago.

[Aristus]

27. My estimate:

Every farm field in the nation that is currently cultivating tobacco.

[RainDog]

30. Most tobacco farmers moved to soy decades ago

So, maybe every soy field?

[Aristus]

32. I still see people smoking cigarettes.

Somebody's still growing that shit...

[RainDog]

45. I wonder if any non-corporate farms are tobacco anymore

I have no idea. I just know the farmers that I knew who grew tobacco all moved to soy.

[MadrasT]

120. The Amish in PA still grow tobacco. n/t

[Sgent]

62. According to the figures in the OP

you need about 575,000 acres of pot to meet supply. Currently their are about 300,000 acres in tobacco total.

[Aristus]

70. That gets us 300,000 acres closer to goal.

This is a good thing.

And the tobacco smokers? They can just, you know, quit.

Like I've been telling them for years...

[RainDog]

71. Thanks for doing that one

after I posted, I realized I hadn't taken the figures down to numbers of acres required.

[RainDog]

147. If you grow in greenhouses with solar-powered lights, tho...

"Traditional strains are grown initially under 18 hours lights on/6 hours lights off. This is called vegetative growth; the plant grows leaves, roots and branches but no bud. Usually after 4 or 5 weeks the plants is switched to 12 hours lights on/12 hours lights off. This causes the cannabis plant to go into flowering and produce the buds we all love. Normally the flowering process takes around 9 weeks. The finished plant is cut down, the buds trimmed and dried for a few days. Normally people cure (or mature) the buds in glass jars for a month or two to get the best flavours and a great high." - from some weed growing blog...

So, say 16 weeks per crop...which is on the longer side. Once it's cut, drying, curing, would be done in another area.

So, three crops per year would be possible if someone isn't just relying on sun/earth to do their things. If someone did three crops per year, they could still put, say, 90 plants within a much smaller area than outdoor grows.

They could power fans in the greenhouses that help circulate air with solar energy, too.

192,000 greenhouse acres could produce 30 million lbs per year.

[randome]

29. And how much environmental damage will be done by this?

http://www.calsalmon.org/resources/environmental-impacts-marijuana-cultivation

I know you're all excited about seeing pot use spread to the four corners of the Earth (I do not understand that at all) but the plants consume a lot of resources.
[hr][font color="blue"][center]“If you're not committed to anything, you're just taking up space.”
Gregory Peck, Mirage (1965)[/center][/font][hr]

[RainDog]

38. That assumes illegal indoor grows.

I know you don't like this - and frankly, I think it's funny that this subject bothers you so much. Yes, the entire world would be better if cannabis were legal around the world - not just for recreational use, but for that as well.

You always find ways to complain and be negative about the subject. Enjoy!

The world will move forward without your permission.

Hemp cannabis both captures carbon and serves as phytoremediation to remove heavy metals and pollutants from the soil. It's the best source of EFAs in any plant and provides 30% protein (the only plant that does better is soy), hemp is the best source of insulating material in the world... so beyond the recreational cannabis, there are other reasons to plant acres and acres of hemp cannabis.

Hemp cannabis can also be used to replace petrol-based products like plastic bags, etc... and biodegradable.

The 80 years of lying about cannabis is over. Bummer, huh?

[randome]

41. Not complaining, just pointing out that pot is no more a panacea to life than anything else.

There are always downsides to consider. Some, however, don't want to consider those downsides.

I'm never bummed out. Sorry.
[hr][font color="blue"][center]“If you're not committed to anything, you're just taking up space.”
Gregory Peck, Mirage (1965)[/center][/font][hr]

[RainDog]

43. Opening an entirely new market around the world

for products made from cannabis is not talking about a panacea. It's talking about spurring economic activity and rethinking how products are made.

We could stop deforestation by moving BACK to hemp paper rather than wood pulp (this is a far better choice, ecologically, because hemp is carbon neutral, and takes about 180 days from planting to harvest. Old growth forest takes hundreds of years and cannot be replaced until that same amount of time.

And what a great gimmick, as well, to be able to market a "home grown car" - literally. Hemp grown on American soil, with a car body made on American soil, run on biofuel from hemp.

But, again, you frame this in a negative way, "a panacea" as tho it would not be a good thing, in and of itself, to see this shift in manufacturing. Optimism, or hope for a better future isn't the same as a panacea. The legalization issue is larger than recreational mj and encompasses a vision of industry that is more earth friendly.

What are the downsides to consider?

I'm certainly willing to consider downsides if they're grounded in valid claims, not some reefer madness propaganda.

[randome]

44. You don't, however, sound objective. You sound excited.

I'm unable to see why a plant would make you excited. To most of us, pot is irrelevant. A non-issue. Why would you care about seeing it spread?

And you may be wrong about the carbon footprint. Other studies show quite the opposite. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/08/27/cannabis-carbon-footprint-environment_n_1832035.html

I'm willing to be convinced otherwise but because studies of this nature always show conflicting results, I'm neither excited nor bummed. Like I said, it's irrelevant to me personally, I just thought I'd offer information that you might want to consider.
[hr][font color="blue"][center]“If you're not committed to anything, you're just taking up space.”
Gregory Peck, Mirage (1965)[/center][/font][hr]

[DisgustipatedinCA]

47. Wrong again. There is nothing ever new under the sun.

[RainDog]

49. Because I like it when good things happen

And this is definitely a good thing, imo.

I have been following this issue and blogging about it here on DU for more than 2 years. So, surprise that I'm happy to see the issue move in the direction I think it should, huh?

You are a piece of work. LOL.

I remember when we first spoke about health-related cannabis topics and you could not be convinced. Well, the rest of the world is convinced of the medical value, so, oops. Wrong.

Your link reiterates what I said - that the issue is about indoor recreational marijuana, and NOTHING TO DO with hemp. Did you read your own link?

Here's the kicker at the bottom:

The San Francisco Bay Guardian argued last year that the solution to decreasing the energy intensity of marijuana cultivation may be to move it outdoors. They wrote, "the biggest barriers to moving most marijuana production outdoors are federal laws and the biases of pot consumers." Although indoor growers can harvest year-round and "produce the best-looking buds, which command the highest prices and win the top prizes in competitions," the paper claims that, if done properly, outdoor cultivation does not inherently mean an inferior product for consumers.

As for hemp and paper products - According to the U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, one acre of hemp can produce 4 times more paper than one acre of trees! All types of paper products can be produced from hemp: newsprint, computer paper, stationary, cardboard, envelopes, toilet paper, even tampons.

There is no plant species on earth capable of producing as much paper per acre as hemp.

Hemp requires little to no pesticides. The greatest concern with hemp is mold. Here are some products that can be made from hemp, with its fast-growing, low pesticide, carbon capturing, soil remediating profile:

[randome]

56. George Washington Carver discovered 300 uses for the peanut.

Actually, he didn't discover all of them but leave that aside for the moment.

I don't see how many uses are actually, um, in use, but I'm willing to bet it's nowhere near 300. What looks good on paper rarely reflects reality.
[hr][font color="blue"][center]“If you're not committed to anything, you're just taking up space.”
Gregory Peck, Mirage (1965)[/center][/font][hr]

[RainDog]

61. LOL

[randome]

65. Crap! I always thought I was the life of the party!

Now I am bummed.
[hr][font color="blue"][center]“If you're not committed to anything, you're just taking up space.”
Gregory Peck, Mirage (1965)[/center][/font][hr]

[RainDog]

68. ...

<a href="http://www.fodey.com/generators/animated/ninjatext.asp"><img src="" border=0 width="561" height="122" alt=""></a>

[tridim]

83. There are more than 300 ~medicinal~ uses for cannabis alone.

And thousands of non-medicinal uses.

You are ignorant, and you are making a fool of yourself.

[Major Nikon]

53. The article is talking about indoor growth which is largely the result of illegalization

The idea that pot would still be grown indoors under legalization is not a good one. Had you read on in your own link you would have seen that the answer is simply to move production outdoors. Not only that, greenhouses in most areas allow for year round growth with minimal resources. I'm also willing to bet it could be grown in an aquaponic environment which would yield benefits beyond just the pot production while maintaining even better quality and an even faster growth cycle with very low water useage rates.

[randome]

54. The link also says pot grown indoors is superior.

Even though the same effect can be made with careful outdoor cultivation, I think it's debatable whether growers who are used to growing indoors would be willing to switch.

Most people live in houses, not on farms. But if farming was widespread enough, maybe indoor growers would be willing to 'quit' and simply buy the product.
[hr][font color="blue"][center]“If you're not committed to anything, you're just taking up space.”
Gregory Peck, Mirage (1965)[/center][/font][hr]

[madrchsod]

74. i doubt they will....

[Major Nikon]

79. I think they would either switch or be driven out of the market

Why would anyone chose a method that is more expensive if they don't have to worry about the cops raiding their crop? If someone wants to grow a superior product, the most cost effective way to do so is in a greenhouse. With no worries about prying eyes discovering your operation and shutting you down, there's no good reason not to.

[RainDog]

100. And cannabis producers can market themselves as eco-friendly

As a way to encourage people to buy their product, rather than one that uses indoor grow.

AND, when people have money to invest, they can create greenhouses that can grow year round and power these with solar panels.

When growers don't have to hide, there are a lot of ways the business can be made better, environmentally, and this is one group that would be inclined (the purchasers, sellers) to put pressure on the grower to be as earth-friendly as possible.

but with an investment in solar panels and large greenhouses, less acreage would be necessary because growers could still have three month crops.

[tridim]

111. My personal greenhouse is going to be impressive.

It better be, I've been planning it for twenty years.

People aren't yet grasping how much legalization will change everything overnight.

[Major Nikon]

115. I'd be interested in knowing what your plans are

I've been kicking around the idea (not for pot growing) for some time. Lately I've been looking into aquaponics, which seems pretty interesting. I figure with an 8x10 greenhouse I can make all the vegetables I'll need for the wife and I pretty much year round along with a Koi raising operation.

[SomethingFishy]

116. Maybe you've never spent time in jail for consuming a plant

You have been posting for days about how you just don't get how people are so excited over a plant.

Blah blah blah. come back to me when whatever your legal vice, be it coffee, alcohol, trans fats, cigarettes or whatever is made a schedule 1 drug and you can be sent to fucking prison for it.

You want to know why people are so "excited"? Because we won't be getting arrested anymore. Get it?

You are right it is irrelevant to you. When it becomes legal you will wake up and see no difference on the planet but many of us will be able to freely smoke a weed that grows out of the ground without the fear of being persecuted by some asshole in robes, or some fucking jackass in a uniform, or for that matter some jerk on a message board.

[The Midway Rebel]

39. Maybe we should be more or equally concerned about the environmental damage of our food diet.

http://www.onegreenplanet.org/animalsandnature/most-environmentally-destructive-foods/

[Isoldeblue]

46. Hemp/cannabis grown legally is fine for the environment

and the economy. Hemp for industrial use, alone had an excellent history. Maybe check it out, before you make statements that are not factual. It's the illegal growing that causes horrendous problems. If cannabis were decriminalized and legal, it would put those irresponsible, illegal growers out of business, once people don;t need to use them. They are destroying land. So it seems like a win/win to me..........

http://nnytimes.com/american_hemp_history.htm

Speaking for myself personally, I am offended by your remark. I'm a 68 yo woman with serious health issues. After years of using so many legal drugs, leaving terrific, permanent side-effects I gave up on them, two being Neurotin & Tegratol. They weren't that helpful either.

I was fortunate to find a grower that only sold to a few for medical use. It's $10.00 a gram - not cheap. But I know where its coming from, it's dependable and that it's not crap. It helps so much more than any other "drug" I've ever taken.

I will honestly tell you that IF I hadn't found the kind herb, I'd probably be dead by now, by suicide. It has helped me through deep depressions and anxiety, from the constant ills. The pain is so much less with the kind herb.

So for you make that remark, is marginalizing people like me. I don't appreciate it.

[randome]

51. Did I say anything about medicinal uses?

I have no reason to doubt what you say. But the OP implies that pot will have some magical transformative effect on the world. I don't see that happening simply because people don't think alike.

As far as medicinal uses go, if you need pot to survive, more power to you. But you are most likely in a very small subset of individuals in that position. The proponents of pot would often have us believe that it cures nearly every malady under the sun.

Nothing does that. Not even 'magic' marijuana.
[hr][font color="blue"][center]“If you're not committed to anything, you're just taking up space.”
Gregory Peck, Mirage (1965)[/center][/font][hr]

[Isoldeblue]

59. Did you take anything back from

your disingenuous remarks? Despite facts provided you to the contrary?

Now that would prove a person of character... Of integrity.


But I'm not holding my breath.

[randome]

60. I'm really not trying to be anyone's enemy here.

I've already stated that I have nothing against medicinal uses. I have nothing against legalization and it's because DUers convinced me it was for the best.

I just thought I'd counter what was, IMO, an overly optimistic OP.
[hr][font color="blue"][center]“If you're not committed to anything, you're just taking up space.”
Gregory Peck, Mirage (1965)[/center][/font][hr]

[Isoldeblue]

66. Your remarks to me were

condescending and patronizing. You belittled my remarks saying that "As far as medicinal uses go, if you need pot to survive, more power to you." Well, aren't you special to allow me that?!

"But you are most likely in a very small subset of individuals in that position."
No, I'm not. Not hardly. That is a willfully ignorant statement on your part.


You say things that make you feel better at others expense. It's called emotional rape. But you are most likely in a very small subset of individuals in that position. Thank GOODNESS!

[RainDog]

67. "An overly optimistic OP"

The OP merely used figures available to try to find some projections based upon those figures and issues related to cannabis use.

There's nothing "optimistic" or "pessimistic" about the post. I was trying to find some semi-accurate guesstimates, which is exactly what Rand Research has done, and economist's looking at the issue.

Yet that's what you projected onto the OP. "Overly optimistic."

Math: the devil's handmaiden.

[DebJ]

110. I agree with you.

The thing is that when people I know have used pot regularly, pot leads them to BELIEVE that
they have undergone some magical transformative effect, believing they were so much
wiser than non-users. They were transformed, all right, and the impact was that I had to
do most of the responsibilities in our lives while they were doing nothing BUT feeling so good,
and so superior, and focusing on some really bizarre and annoying topics all the time.

[RainDog]

134. You need better friends

Ones I have known have smoked cannabis daily and gotten masters degrees and PhDs while doing so. They have composed scores for major works that have been presented on international stages. They have written books and scholarly articles published in competitive markets.

They have performed on worldwide tours. They have won awards for their work. They have produced bodies of work that demonstrate mastery of their subjects.

Here are some more people who have talked about their cannabis use:

Carl Sagan - the most important popularizer of astronomy of the 20th c.

Ralph Abraham, a prominent theoretical mathematician.

Richard Feynman, one of the greatest theoretical physicists in history.

Kary Banks Mullis, biochemist who won the 1993 Nobel Prize in Chemistry.

Stephen Jay Gould, paleontologist, evolutionary biologist and popularizer of science for the American public through his books.

Margaret Mead, one of the most famous anthropologists in American history and President of both the American Anthropological Association and the American Association for the Advancement of Science. She also testified before Congress on the legalization of marijuana, and popularized "multi-culti" through her work.

Oliver Sacks, Oxford graduate and professor of neurology at Columbia Medical Center, and popularizer of neurobiology through his books.

Susan Blackmore, psychologist and author of at least 40 books and 60 scholarly articles on subjects ranging from "memes" to the study of issues like ESP and out-of-body experiences - debunking those beliefs. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Susan_Blackmore


Steve Jobs - founder of Apple
Sergei Brin - founder of Google
Richard Branson - founder of Virgin Airlines, now planning space shuttle trips for tourism.
Hoagy Carmichael - who wrote the definitive tune in the American songbook - Stardust.
Michael Pollan - writer and activist for healthy foods

Molly Ivins
Jim Hightower
Matt Taibbi
Andrew Sullivan

Previous cannabis users in politics include:

John F. Kennedy
John Kerry
Bill Clinton
Al Gore
Arnold Schwarzenegger
Barack Obama
Hillary Clinton

[DebJ]

137. Other friends drove down the wrong side of the highway

and laughed hilariously when this was pointed out to them (then proceeded to do it again a few moments later)
or jumped off a second story porch repeatedly until arms/legs were broken.

I like people the way they are, with their brains the way they are.
No 'enhancement' needed, thanks.

Also had to fire several people who came to work stoned and did absolutely zero work,
all the while proclaiming how marvelously productive and creative they were.
Blech.

[RainDog]

139. They sound like stupid, irresponsible people

No one I have ever known, over the course of my entire life, would ever jump off a porch and break bones under the influence of marijuana.

Unless they were stupid to begin with.

[DebJ]

140. Well, this was a group of about twenty in high school, ALL of them doing it.

After watching that performance, my interest in weed went from zero to negative.

[RainDog]

143. Stupid teenagers - who shouldn't be smoking weed anyway. n/t

[DebJ]

138. And of course none of those people would have been great without drugs? n/t

[RainDog]

141. Francis Crick, who envisioned the structure of DNA

directly created LSD for allowing him to perceive the subject in 3-D.

Steve Jobs directly credits LSD for his vision of Apple.

...and so on. LSD is far more potent than marijuana, of course, and has qualities that mj does not.

Drug warriors are tiresome.

If you don't want to use something, don't. But don't bring your petty-mindedness to others' lives where it has no place. That's how I see it.

As I've mentioned here before, no one I know in academia objects to mj or LSD used responsibility in relation to their work because they all know about the ways these things have created leaps forward in their fields.

Louis Armstrong smoked reefer every day of his life. He is considered one of the greats of jazz improvisation - which is the act of creating music on the spot, which requires great skill and a nimble mind. And he did all those while high on reefer.

So, sure, there are jerks in every walk of life - but they're not just found among those who want to see the useless drug war ended.

[Go Vols]

153. One magical transformative effect

would be the immediate decrease in population of prisons,most of which are privatized and feed the rich.

[RainDog]

52. ...

[Isoldeblue]

57. (((((((RainDog)))))))

[RainDog]

69. ...

[madrchsod]

76. depending on the quality a gram runs 25-45 a gram on the street

i totally agree with what you wrote.

[Isoldeblue]

81. Thanks

I guess I'm out of the loop on prices. I had heard on the news that a 1/4 ounce cost $50.00 in CO.

I'm fortunate that I don't have to go to the streets to get it.

I'm even more grateful to my friend, now, knowing this. But let's keep that a secret, ok....? LOL

[abelenkpe]

33. If the economy doesn't get better?

A lot

[JaneyVee]

35. ALOT, as long as I'm alive.

[RainDog]

42. LOL

<-- JaneyVee...

[Kath1]

82. LMFAO!

Peace, JaneyVee! You sound like my daughter, who got me smoking again, bless her heart!

[Major Nikon]

48. It fails to account for how many would simply grow their own

They don't call it weed for nothing.

[In_The_Wind]

50. Homegrown is the best way to go.

[Go Vols]

63. Lots..

+

[Ohio Joe]

64. When I first got my red card, I used about 1/2 ounce a month...

Now... I'm probably at about an ounce a month. That is almost exclusively top shelf stuff.

[Isoldeblue]

72. Got side-tracted as to what I

wanted to say to your OP.

I do believe that the demand will increase, if it's legalized. Especially among those who are fed up with pharmaceutical drugs and discover that the kind herb will benefit them so much better. And cost much less! Once the fear of being arrested is removed, the demand will sky-rocket.

One thing that's not usually mentioned is that there is a built-up resistance over time. I began with an easy 10 grams a month, a few years ago, to help with my medical issues. But now I'm up to about 15. That's still not a lot. But if I were not in a state where it was legal, I know I'd use more for better benefit. There are a number of reasons for that, but don't want to give more info. Anyway, for the sea of ailments out there that can helped by the kind herb, word will spread. Hell, it safer than an aspirin for a headache! LOL Wouldn't it be so cool, when the day comes, to have it on hand like most do, with Tylenol and aspirin?! Or when a doctor can freely prescribe it for say, glaucoma? Or epilepsy? Or depression?

I pray that I will be able to acquire it without fear of losing everything, in my lifetime.

I'll say it again. It saved my life. I ache for so many out there who can't get the relief I have gotten. It's an abominable crime that it's being withheld from so many.

[RainDog]

75. This woman compares her fight with the UK law to the suffragettes

Patrica Tabram

Dr. Melamede, Associate Professor and Biology Chairman, Biology Department, University of Colorado, explains how the Endocannabinoid System functions as a "Global Homeostatic Regulator", balancing several organ systems. He theorizes that, "Free Radicals are the Friction of Life. Endocannabinoids are the Oil of Life."

Melamede also theorizes that the way placebos work is by activating the body's own endocannabinoids.

[madrchsod]

73. if it`s legal then grow your own

some clones or seeds, a small room,some led lights and you'll have enough that you wouldn't need to buy or sell any.
i`m thinking more like the craft beer and distilled spirits markers. super good grass will always command a higher price.

one thing that`s not mentioned is the cost of labor and the cost of chemicals. grass is a very labor intensive crop that has to have speciality chemicals. this alone would push large scale grass production past the 325-375 per oz price.

[BlueStreak]

78. Are you kidding, that will be as illegal as running your own casino

In another 3 or 4 years, we will see states rushing to get in on this, just as they did with "riverboat" casinos and state-run lotteries.

But they don't want any competition. They want to tax the hell out of it, and they want to make sure the profits go to a small number of well-connected friends who will be generous with the campaign contributions.

In other words organized crime operated BY the government, business as usual.

[Bluenorthwest]

85. Not true, Colorado, Washington, and every bill developing in other States allows personal

growing. So thus far every legalized State allows personal growing, Medical Marijuana States such as Oregon and California certainly do, in fact Oregon's entire plan is based on personal growing, we just got dispensaries allowed this month. What Alabama might do is unfathomable to me, but out west it's always going to be home grow friendly. Preferred, in fact.

[Comrade Grumpy]

87. I-502 in Washington doesn't allow for personal grows.

You can grow your own under the state's medical marijuana program, but there have been efforts to do away with that as some people try to wrap medical into I-502.

Giving up personal grows was an unnecessary giveaway, Ms. Holcomb, along with that DUID language.

[Bluenorthwest]

88. That was foolish, I was aware only of the medical laws there. Colorado allows personal

growing, Oregon certainly will. Our Medical Program requires a stated grow site, that is if you or a friend is not growing it, you get no card. So it is very much geared to dyi.

[BlueStreak]

89. Laws are changed when there's a tanker-load of money at stake. See me in 5 years.

By then, there will be at least 12 states allowing recreational pot, but it will be illegal to grow your own because it will all be about tax revenues for the state and pot retail franchises for the governors' pals.

This is the history of America. This kind of thing has gone on for over 200 years. I'm not making a bold prediction here.

[RainDog]

92. I hope no states make this mistake

but who knows. this will not be the reality in states that are already allowing people to grow...those states' activists will not allow it, I would bet.

So, I would be willing to take that bet from you that the fed will not restrict personal growing, if that's what you're saying.

I would be less willing to take that bet for 5 years at the state level, but I would still make it - if it's legal.

[BlueStreak]

96. No, I'm talking about states. That's where the real opportunity for graft exists

There is so much money at stake, they will want to cut off person crops. They may grandfather it in, or maybe allow a person to grow a very small amount each year, but there will be a huge motivation to turn this into a tax Bonanza and an opportunity to give lucrative weed franchises to friends of the Governor.

[RainDog]

97. If we're talking about millions of lbs per year

I don't think legs will think it's worth bothering to restrict producers to businesses only.

People grow corn in their backyards, even tho corn is a major industrial crop. The businesses make their money in their market and people still pick, shuck, tie up the husks, and grill corn.

The art of making quality marijuana for the recreational market, from what some who have done so have told me, requires more than just putting a seed in the soil and waiting.

That sort of "boutique" market will certainly exist, and more generic will likely exist as well.

We first have to get beyond the fear that this drug war has created in the minds of some. After that, marijuana can be like any other crop grown in your backyard for diy-ers.

[Major Nikon]

93. Which is not illegal at all

You can run your own gambling operation so long as you're not making a profit.

[BlueStreak]

99. You're not a lawyer, are you. :)

Gambling is illegal in most parts of the country, and it is not a winning defense to say "Judge, I didn't personally profit from the casino I operated in my basement. I was just donating my space for my friends to gamble on the roulette wheel."

If you are saying that you can have a friendly game of poker as long as no money changes hands, yes, of course. But the equivalent of that would be to grow pot but not smoke it.

I don't have an opinion one way or another about legalization. I haven't had any weed for 30 years and probably wouldn't smoke any if it were legal. I'm just sayin' that we saw how government-sanctioned casinos and lotteries took off like wild fire. I stand by my prediction that many states will try to do the same thing with marijuana.

[RainDog]

101. mj is more like alcohol than gambling

The Democrats who introduced legislation into the House last year (from WA and CO state) specified moving cannabis from oversight by the DEA to oversight by the newly named Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Marijuana.

They also intro'd legislation to create a tax structure.

Polis, Blumenauer Bills De-Federalize Marijuana Prohibition Provide for Regulatory and Taxation Framework

Washington, Feb 5, 2013

Congressman Jared Polis (D-CO) and Congressman Earl Blumenauer (D-OR)...introduced two pieces of legislation to de-federalize marijuana policy and create a framework for the federal taxation of cannabis. Polis’ Ending Federal Marijuana Prohibition Act would remove the Drug Enforcement Agency’s authority over marijuana and allow states to choose whether to allow marijuana for medicinal or recreational use.

Blumenauer’s Marijuana Tax Equity Act would create a federal excise tax on marijuana. Together, these bills would provide a system of regulation and taxation for marijuana in states where it is legal.

“This legislation doesn't force any state to legalize marijuana, but Colorado and the 18 other jurisdictions that have chosen to allow marijuana for medical or recreational use deserve the certainty of knowing that federal agents won’t raid state-legal businesses,” said Polis. “Congress should simply allow states to regulate marijuana as they see fit and stop wasting federal tax dollars on the failed drug war.”

The Ending Federal Marijuana Prohibition Act follows Colorado’s model of regulating marijuana like alcohol by:

Removing marijuana from the Controlled Substances Act;
Transferring the Drug Enforcement Administration’s authority to regulate marijuana to a newly renamed Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Marijuana and Firearms, which will be tasked with regulating marijuana as it currently does alcohol;
Requiring marijuana producers to purchase a permit, as commercial alcohol producers do, of which the proceeds would offset the cost of federal oversight; and,
Ensuring federal law distinguishes between individuals who grow marijuana for personal use and those involved in commercial sale and distribution.

The Marijuana Tax Equity Act would create the following framework:

This bill imposes a 50 percent excise tax on the first sale of marijuana, from the producer to the next stage of production, usually the processor;
Similar to the rules within the alcohol and tobacco tax provisions, an occupational tax will be imposed on those operating in marijuana, with producers, importers and manufacturers facing an occupation tax of $1,000/a year and any other person engaged in the business facing an annual tax of $500/a year;
Civil penalties will be imposed for failure to comply with taxing duties. Criminal penalties will be assessed for intentional efforts to defraud the taxing authorities; and,
The bill also requires the IRS to produce a study of the industry after two years, and every five years after that, and to issue recommendations to Congress to continue improving the administration of the tax.

The Path Forward: Rethinking Federal Marijuana Policy

[Major Nikon]

102. Do you need a lawyer to read every law for you?

Most states (albeit probably not all) have an exception for private gambling.

Here is the one in mine:

Sec. 47.02. GAMBLING. (a) A person commits an offense if he: (1) makes a bet on the partial or final result of a game or contest or on the performance of a participant in a game or contest; (2) makes a bet on the result of any political nomination, appointment, or election or on the degree of success of any nominee, appointee, or candidate; or(3) plays and bets for money or other thing of value at any game played with cards, dice, balls, or any other gambling device.[div style="display:inline; background-color:#FFFF66;"](b) It is a defense to prosecution under this section that: (1) the actor engaged in gambling in a private place; (2) no person received any economic benefit other than personal winnings; and(3) except for the advantage of skill or luck, the risks of losing and the chances of winning were the same for all participants

.

[BlueStreak]

109. That is referred to as "social gambling" and is illegal in about half the USA

See http://www.gambling-law-us.com/State-Law-Summary/

[Major Nikon]

112. Not exactly

It depends on the game. If you have a dice game going on in your living room, this is going to be illegal in about 20 states. If you have a poker game, there's only a few states where it's illegal.

Here's the federal ruling, which echos other state rulings:
http://www.reviewjournal.com/business/casinos-gaming/online-poker-advocates-embrace-judges-decision

[BlueStreak]

113. See post #78. I said "RUNNING YOUR OWN CASINO" That's illegal

"Running a casino" implies operating it as a business and that is illegal everywhere, as far as I know. If you want to do that, you have to get a permit (which might mean payoffs) and you certainly have to pay taxes on it.

That is my point. This is potentially a huge money pot and the government is going to want to run that operation. Will they permit a few hippies to grow a couple of plants a year? Maybe. IMHO anybody who thinks this isn't headed the same direction as the casino and lottery business is "smoking dope", so to speak.

[Major Nikon]

114. I have no doubt the government will want to regulate for profit pot growing operations

...regardless of size.

I don't think it will be any different than making hootch in your kitchen and trying to sell it. However, assuming legal pot goes nationwide, I can't imagine growing your own pot for your own consumption is going to be illegal in very many places, if any. While it may be at first, there's just going to be too many people doing it legal or not for the government to try and regulate.

[BlueStreak]

119. In my state, I can brew my own beer, BUT

it is subject to a low limit. I don't recall what that is, but I think it was something like 50 gallons a year. There could be such a personal exemption for pot growing. However, it is so much easier to grow pot than to make a good batch of beer, and it is so easy to supply one's friends, I have a feeling they will want to really limit the competition with the approved retailers.

[Submariner]

77. MauiNOW.com: Bill Seeks Cultivation and Export of Marijuana from Hawaii

The locals are already talking about converting some sugar plantations to Maui Wowie farms.

http://mauinow.com/2014/01/23/bill-seeks-cultivation-and-export-of-marijuana-from-hawai%CA%BBi/

[RainDog]

80. Maui Wowie

...back in the day, that was a treat.

from your link -

Representative Rida Cabanilla of Ewa Beach, who introduced House Bill 2124, issued a statement saying cultivation would be for export purposes only, with the tax from revenue used for funding state programs.

“Hawaii’s rich soil, coupled with its temperate climate, provide ideal conditions for year-round farming and cultivation. Hawaiʻi is well situated to provide an abundant supply of quality marijuana to fill a growing international demand,” said Cabanilla.

It would be crazy to legalize for export and not for local sale. But, you know that lawmakers can be crazy sometimes when reefer madness strikes.

But it's probably a smart move to diversify outside of sugarcane. Some people are saying processed sugar is a worse drug than heroin, in terms of the social costs. It's certainly more ubiquitous.

From the most recent numbers in the Hawaii Data Book, there is a total of 4,112,388 acres of land in the State of Hawaii, of which, 47.99% is designated for Conservation, 46.94% is designated for Agricultural, 4.81% is designated for Urban, and 0.26% is designated for Rural. Of the total acreage in Agriculture reported by the Advertiser and in the Hawaii Data Book, not all of the land is actively farmed because of an over supply of land after the fall of Hawaii's large plantations.

[Pathwalker]

117. Ever heard of Meowie Wowie? It's some serious catnip,

supposedly the strongest on the planet. My cat is soooo addicted to it, we started buying it by the POUND.
$45 a pound! We keep it in the freezer and he knows exactly where we keep his smaller stash, so we have to go to extreme measures to keep him out of it. Yes, I'm serious. Dude is addicted to it.

[RainDog]

122. ...

Chairman Meow is listening

[Pathwalker]

130. Dear Chairman Meow.... what you seek can be found at

Preuss Pets
1127 N. Cedar St.
Lansing,Mi. 48906
1-517-339-1762


They are the most awesome pet store in the area. You will need your human's help to get you there - animals are welcome.

[L0oniX]

95. Isn't that where purple sense comes from too?

[Submariner]

98. That comes from Hana

on the windward/wet side of Maui.

[tblue37]

86. All of it. nt

[Herself]

90. and then there is the hemp materials market

that will explode globally

[RainDog]

91. Overly Optimistic Popular Mechanics

http://www.cifas.us/material/new-billion-dollar-crop
Popular Mechanics, February 1938, p. 238 ff.





If nothing else, creating a new, legal market that can coincide with the repeal of cannabis prohibition can create the sort of "irrational exuberance" to spur investors to put their money in American businesses, whether it's recreational, industrial, biotech, medical. It's extremely odd to see Republican opposed to free enterprise.

[L0oniX]

94. Illegal acceptable shit is over $300 an oz and double that for good shit...

and for shit like purple sense maybe as much as $1000 an oz and up ...but then it's been a long time since I bought anything <--- disclaimer for Agent Mike.



Yum yum

[Coyotl]

103. 360 million pounds per year x $800.00 per lb = $288 BILLION

360,000,000 x $800.00 = $288,000,000,000.00

How much of that $288,000,000,000.00 is drained out of the economy every year by imported weed?

[RainDog]

104. see? I TOLD people to check my math

once you start adding all those zeros... my eyes glaze over.

[Coyotl]

106. I realized you didn't mean math geek, so I seriously did read the numbers.

Yep, you are a math moron.

[RainDog]

107. hey, I fessed up when I posted this...

cause I know how often I do things like that. hey, a million here, a million there... before you know it you've got a billion.

[Iggo]

105. Thank goodness it grows like weeds.

[TeamPooka]

127. That's good for me. Are you folks going to need anything? nt

[Warpy]

128. Over a pound of pot for every man, woman and child every year?

I don't think so. Somebody is thinking the stuff is like cigarettes, that people will smoke 20-40 joints a day.

While I know heavy stoners who could go through that and more, a couple of ounces per year would do me fine, baked into brownies.

[RainDog]

129. I think it comes out to 3/4 lb per year per person

Again, I was just trying to guess at some figures, and, yes, I think the figure might be high, but take into account people may share with others at their homes - or may use plant material to make tinctures, which uses a lot of plant material to create a concentrate, and would be used for personal health, not recreationally.

[Ruby the Liberal]

144. $25 a quarter?

I just paid $140 last week. Sign me up.

[malaise]

145. Come to Jamaica

and feel alright

[RainDog]

146. If only I could!

if nothing else, to get away from -4 degree temps!!!!

[panader0]

148. I had one plant this year

It yielded about 12 ounces of beautiful seedless buds. More than enough to last me until the next harvest, with enough to gift to my friends.