What's the story w. Alan Grayson's re-elect?

[Smarmie Doofus]

Is he really in any danger?

Has there been redistricting?

What accounts for his fundraising apparatus to be in overdrive this far ahead of crunch-time?

I realize it's not a presidential election year ..... so his #s will probably fall on that score alone.

BUT... I have limited capital and contributed to his 2012 laugher/blow-out when, frankly, other progressive candidates could have benefited from my not-so-large largesse.

Don't get me wrong: Grayson is ME... if only I could think that clearly and communicate that well.

But other people need help too, seems to me.

[Major Nikon]

1. There has been redistricting, but this may go in his favor

I'm optimistic he will win re-election but the GOP is pouring money into his opponent already and keep in mind that he was already ousted by the GOP in 2008 in the 8th district only to come back in 2012 in the 9th.

[BlueStreak]

4. The redistricting was BEFORE the last election, right?

I don't see how he could be in any jeopardy because he was Gerrymandered into a heavily Democratic district.

[Major Nikon]

5. His last election was in 2012

The redistricting took effect after that.

[BlueStreak]

6. I am confused. His district was Gerrymandered BEFORE the 2012 election

That is how he won in 2012.
See http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/07/alan-grayson-election-results_n_2085084.html

Are you saying they went back after 2012 and tampered with the district boundaries AGAIN? That would be news to me.

[Major Nikon]

7. It was gerrymandered before the election

I was under the impression that the subsequent lawsuit forced it to take effect after the election, but a quick google search reports the DOJ signed off on it before.

[BlueStreak]

8. And considering he won by 25%, he should not be at risk

[Major Nikon]

9. He defeated a very poorly funded opponent

This may not be the case this time around. I think at this point his reelection chances are good, but Alan is a very polarizing figure because he's a very strong progressive and this could easily be used against him if the GOP pours a lot of money into his opponent.

[BlueStreak]

10. I hope we use that same rationale when looking at the "sure thing" GOP districts

I agree with you, but I notice that people at DU and Democrats in general seem to be very quick with the "Woe is me. We can't possibly win the House. They districts are too Gerrymandered. It is too hard."

It is possible to overcome a 25% handicap with good funding, a good candidate, and a strong message such as this:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/12/22/1263930/-A-Democratic-contract-with-America-How-to-retake-the-House-and-combat-economic-inequality

[Major Nikon]

11. The thing about gerrymandering is when the worm turns it's often catastrophic

At some point Texas will turn and when it does the GOP will never be able to regain their majority again due to changing demographics. Those who didn't see it coming will wake up some Wednesday morning and say, 'damn, Texas is blue'. I'm not sure when this will happen, but happen it will. The GOP's position is untenable and sooner or later their house of cards will fall.

[Iwillnevergiveup]

2. Yes, he's still a prime target

of the Repukes and Koch brothers. And I recently heard him say, the vast majority of supporters are individuals who contribute less than $200 to his campaign.

[BlueToTheBone]

3. After I found out he's incredibly

wealthy, I don't feel so inclined to send money his way. Allison Lundgren-Grimes who's fighting to topple turtle chin would be a worthy cause and Wendy Davis probably could use some money too. But she has such a large fan base in Texas, the women there will probably be more than eager to give her money...democrats and repubs as well.