The Dow Jones is less than 1000 points from it's ALL TIME high in history.

[FarLeftFist]

Call me crazy but I predict 18,000 by November. Hopefully everyones pensions are doing better as a result.

[DocMac]

1. When it reaches 14,000 i'm thinking of shorting.

I think that number is the mountain top.

[BadgerKid]

7. And/or sell calls. n/t

[Nye Bevan]

15. Don't try to time the market. Nobody can do that.

Decide what percentage of your portfolio should be in stocks, and re-adjust your portfolio each quarter accordingly. Then you will automatically sell when the market rises and buy when it falls.

[DocMac]

23. You're right. It's a gamble.

But i'm thinking of shorting some mining companies. Gold will fall if the dow keeps moving up.

Am I right in this thinking, or is there to much fear?

[Nye Bevan]

28. I have never shorted anything and never will.

Your losses are potentially unlimited. Were you able to correctly predict 5 and 10 years ago what the gold price was going to do? If not, why do you think that you will be correct this time?

Keep it simple. Pick a percentage to keep in stocks, like 60% or 70%, and stick with it. If you are older you can reduce this percentage over time (one rule of thumb is to take 100 minus your age). And don't panic over every market fall or get exuberant every time the market rises. Discipline is the watchword.

[Junkdrawer]

2. If you look in the archives, you'll find I put out a "Buy" signal in 2008 at EXACTLY....

the bottom of the market. It was my only Buy signal.

And my advice today:

Take your time over the next few weeks and....Sell.

[Nye Bevan]

16. The "bottom of the market" was in 2009 (nt)

[Junkdrawer]

30. I bought 3 stocks in early Oct. 2008. For 2 of the 3, I bought at pretty much the exact bottom.

For the third, there was a slightly lower bottom in April 2009. All three were dividend stocks (which was my selection advice at the time) and I've been earning 8% or better for these 3 - 4 years.

I'm selling all three over the next few weeks and I'll get back in when I think the air has been "corrected". As all this is taking place in my (and my wife's) IRA, there'll be no taxes on the gains.

What's the old saw? "When everyone is selling, I'm buying. When everyone is buying, I'm selling." I've found that's good advice. Also, I tend to buy and hold, so I just need to identify big trends. The people who try to psych the market minute-by-minute must have cast iron stomachs - I could never do that.

[siligut]

17. Bloomberg keeps saying take some money off of the table

Various guests seem to sign off with that sentiment. Fidelity also agrees, just take some money off of the table, so you can buy back in at the lows.

[DJ13]

3. Its amazing what a reduced workforce, stagnant wages, and higher selling prices can do

... for profits.

Im not sure this is something to be proud of, but thats just me.

[Zalatix]

8. It's amazing how many people are drinking that kool-aid

Stocks are up, and minimum wage jobs are booming.

What could possibly go wrong?

[lpbk2713]

4. I hope this puts Limbaugh in cardiac distress.

Boner too, in spite of all his obstructing this is good news.

[Warpy]

5. Yeah, time to print out the portfolio "snapshot"

so that I can look fondly back on how rich I used to be.

Sic transit glorious money.

The market is overvalued. I don't believe in these numbers, at all. Stocks are about the only things generating reasonable rates of return, so they're just the place to be right now. Bernanke catches a clue and raises interest rates to get us out of the "Japan trap," the inflated market is over.

Then again, the chances of Bernanke catching a clue are roughly the same as seeing the Pope on a pogo stick.

[Yavin4]

6. Loose Monetary Policy At Work

When you obliterate interest on savings, folks have only one place to go with their money to hope to keep pace with inflation.

[banned from Kos]

9. Ron Paul? Monetary policy is designed to prompt investment in depressed times

low interest rates are a FEATURE.

[Yavin4]

11. Thing is, Some Folks Don't Want to Gamble on Stocks

Some folks, like me, want a nice return on our savings, and we're being punished by the banksters. We forgo spending and live frugally.

In sum, the savers are bailing out the banksters from their reckless behavior of the past decade, and you don't have to be Ron Paul to see that.

[banned from Kos]

12. No, you/we are being punished by the ECONOMY and not bankers.

Low interest rates spur growth.

You miss a couple points on interest - the UE people are dying from stagnation.

[Yavin4]

20. First, It's Not A "couple points on interest"

It's NEGATIVE interest. Savers are losing money on their savings. In one account, I have $1,000 in it. I got a grand total of $0.40 interest payment last month. There's nothing that you can buy for $0.40. Nothing.

Second, low interest rates help the banksters mostly. (See JPM's stock price today.) They do very little for the common man, let alone the UE.

[girl gone mad]

24. Low interest rates do nothing to spur growth.

In fact, there's ample evidence that low interest rates harm growth.

It's another big subsidy to the big banks and nothing more.

[pa28]

10. No doubt this is going to help us at election time.

However, those who decided they could fight a fed sponsored melt-up probably need therapy by now.

[lacrew]

13. Are you joking?

18,000 by November? A 36% increase in 8 months, or a rate that would equal a yearly gain of 54%?

Write this one down: The Dow will not hit 14,000 this year.

[JoePhilly]

14. While I think a large jump is possible, I would not put all my eggs in that basket.

I'm a long term, trend driven investor.

I'm never all in, and I'm never all out.

I pay attention to the high and the low from a trend perspective. When the DOW moves closer to the bottom of the trend range, I move more IN ... when the DOW starts to pass the trend HIGH, I start to consolidate some gains, so that on the next DIP, I have money ready to move back in.

In the 2008 collapse, the DOW should have NEVER dropped under 10,000. But the run up to 14,000 prior was also well outside the longer term trends. We hit 14k for about 10 minutes.

Currently, my long term trend range is between 11k, and 13k. So we are slightly ABOVE the upper bound.

If we keep going up, I'll be consolidating gains all along the way. I do not think the market could sustain 15k, let alone 18k.

I do understand why you expect a larger gain ... companies have been sitting on lots of cash, and if they start to hire, and spend it, the DOW could jump ... but I think it would pull back quickly.

Also, I anticipate the GOP to try everything they can to hurt the economy in those same 8 months. That, and speculation on oil could also restrict the economy.

My rough model currently is like this, given today's price ... a 500 point gain causes me to move 5-10% to cash. A drop however, does not cause me to do anything, unless the drop is to about 12k. If we drop under that, I use some of the cash to buy back in.

[MadHound]

18. And what does that number signify?

It certainly isn't a reliable indicator of how the economy as a whole is doing. Rather, it is only a measure how those thirty corporations are doing. And what is good for those corporations isn't necessarily good for the rest of us. Regularly we see the stock price of a Dow listing go up because they just laid off a few hundred, or thousand, employees. Thus their costs drop and their profits rise. But such unemployment isn't good for the overall economy.

To a lesser extent, such an uptick is an indicator of how the richest ten percent of our population is doing. The richest ten percent own eighty five percent of the stocks in this country, the richest one percent own half the stocks in this country. Thus, stock prices effect them a great deal, but the rest of us, not so much.

Thus, judging the economic health of the country by using the Dow numbers is a sucker's move. The connection between the health of the economy and the health of the Dow is tenuous at best, and most of the time there is no connection at all.

[Yavin4]

21. The Number Signifies That Negative Real Interest Rates Create Stock Bubbles

That's what it signifies.

[trof]

19. Goddam Obama and his Socialist Agenda.

[DocMac]

25. lol!

[Rex]

33. HA!!!

[Motown_Johnny]

22. Dow at 14,000+ and Oil at $120.00+/Barrel is where we crashed last time

I know there was more to it than that but don't get your hopes that high. I would be happy if it simply stayed between 13,000 and 13,500 for a while. Stability would be a good thing for a few months.

[quaker bill]

26. I doubt 18,000 but there are more legs to this upside

As confidence grows, metals and other commodities are long overdue for a big correction. The smart long money is already leaving the PM market. This money will go to equities and the greater fools holding PMs will take a bath. If current trends hold 14.5 to 15 K is doable for the Dow, maybe a bit more. I have already recovered my Bush* losses and a bit more.

[girl gone mad]

27. Which only proves that equities are the worst indicator of overall economic health.

In fact, what's good for our blue chip investors seems to be terrible for everyone else. Equities now soar under policies of disemployment, extreme corporate looting, environmental and ecological destruction, banks gone wild, high poverty and homelessness, diminishing wages and workers' rights, ceaseless wars, a privatized Federal Reserve, crony capitalism at its worst, and a government wholly owned by financial elites. The people suffer. Great if you love giving easy money to the already wealthy.

[Nye Bevan]

29. One reason that stocks have gone up is that unemployment has been going down (nt)

[MattSh]

31. So you're saying...

that soon the economy will be better than it was in October 2007?

Who'd have thunk?

[librechik]

32. anti Wall Street President does this every time.

[Rex]

34. When you have a strong business suit in office

the DOW does great. I hope this makes the GOP crawl under a rock.

[NeedleCast]

35. This actually has me a little worried

It's a recipe for failure. Gains in the market do not seem based on actual economic news (not that they usually are) but this often leads to a larger and larger bubble that will eventually burst. As long as other economic indicators remain relatively positive, the market may continue to surge but if, on the other hand, it tanks 3000 points between August and November, you can bet Obama will bear the brunt of the responsibility for that (despite not actually being responsible).