Gallup: U.S. Economic Confidence Matches Best in Four Years

[ProSense]

U.S. Economic Confidence Matches Best in Four Years
Gallup Economic Confidence Index at -18, best since February 2011

by Dennis Jacobe, Chief Economist

PRINCETON, NJ -- U.S. economic confidence improved sharply to -18 in the week ending March 11 from -25 the prior week -- the highest since the week ending Feb. 13, 2011, when it was also -18. The -18 readings this year and last are the highest weekly levels Gallup has recorded since it started tracking confidence daily in January 2008.

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The percentage of Americans saying the economy is "getting better" increased to 43% last week, while the percentage saying it is "getting worse" fell to 53%. Both of these measures are at their best levels since the 43% "getting better" and 52% "getting worse" of the week ending Feb. 13, 2011.

In a separate question, consumers' "poor" rating of the economy is now at 39%. This is the lowest "poor" rating for current economic conditions since the week ending March 9, 2008.

Bottom Line

Americans' confidence in the economy surged last week, at least in part as a result of the positive unemployment report from the government, which it released Friday. The government reported 227,000 jobs were added in February and the unemployment rate held steady at 8.3%. Many viewed these numbers as a continuation of the good news on jobs in January. Some economists and many on Wall Street also saw the recent unemployment report as an indication that the U.S. economy may be doing better than previously thought.

This improvement in consumer perceptions is taking place despite sharply higher gas prices at the pump. In this regard, Gallup data find gas prices would need to climb to more than $5 per gallon before consumers would need to significantly alter their lifestyles. Of course, increasing gas prices may have a negative effect on consumer economic perceptions far before they reach the $5 per gallon infliction point.

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http://www.gallup.com/poll/153209/Economic-Confidence-Matches-Best-Four-Years.aspx

Now consider the two media-hyped polls from yesterday:

The NYT/CBS poll http://www.democraticunderground.com/1002416813

The ABC/WaPo poll http://www.democraticunderground.com/1002415762

From the NYT article:

Sharp as the drop in Mr. Obama’s approval rating was in the Times/CBS News poll, it was not in isolation. The latest ABC News/Washington Post poll, released on Monday, also reported a drop in Mr. Obama’s overall approval rating, to 46 percent from 50 percent last month. The latest tracking poll from Gallup, also released Monday, showed Mr. Obama with an approval rating of 49 percent.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/13/us/politics/obama-approval-rating-down-in-new-york-times-cbs-poll.html?_r=1&pagewanted=all

Why is that strange? Gallup showed the President's numbers improving.

Gallup: Obama keeps recent approval gains

By Jonathan Easley

President Obama’s approval rating spiked into positive territory last week, and he’s since managed to build on those gains, according to the latest Gallup three-day rolling average.

Forty-nine percent said they approved of the job the president is doing, while 43 percent said they disapproved, Gallup found.

The positive 6-point margin is Obama’s best since last June, when his approval rating was briefly buoyed by the assassination of Osama bin Laden.

Gallup’s three-day rolling average has been susceptible to dramatic swings this year, which have typically been ironed out within a few days.

But last Wednesday, the president’s favorability swung sharply into positive territory, and rather than falling back to near break even, he’s managed to build on those gains in the days since.

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http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/polls/215483-gallup-obama-sustains-recent-gains-in-approval

Then there was an interesting point missing from the reports on the ABC/WaPo poll. On gas prices and hardship, the narrative points out that 36 percent consider it a serious hardship (another 27 consider it a not serious hardship), but the narrative doesn't point out that this is the lowest number since May 2008

11. Have recent price increases in gasoline caused any financial hardship for you or others in your household, or not? (IF YES) Has that been a serious hardship, or not serious?

3/10/12... 36
4/17/11... 43
3/13/11... 44
7/28/08... 45
6/15/08... 51
5/11/08... 34

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postabcpoll_031012.html

The overall number (serious and not serious) is 63 percent. In April 2011, it was 71 percent. So a decrease in the percentage that consider it a hardship resulted in a significant drop in the President's approval?

Absurd!

Nate Silver:

Approval Ratings, Gas Prices and Statistical Noise

By NATE SILVER

8:49 p.m. | Updated This analysis was written and published before I had seen the results of the new New York Times/CBS News poll — which had President Obama’s approval ratings dropping all the way down to 41 percent. That certainly weighs the evidence more in the direction of Mr. Obama’s numbers having declined from their February peaks — and makes November’s election look more like a toss-up than one that leans toward Mr. Obama.

But the point remains that there is a lot of noise in polling data. The New York Times and Washington Post polls showed declining numbers for Mr. Obama. But the Gallup tracking poll, also published on Monday, showed Mr. Obama’s approval rating rising to 49 percent, one of the higher figures he has posted in that survey.

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As of Monday, Mr. Obama’s approval rating in the Real Clear Politics average of polls is 48 percent, and his disapproval rating is 47.5 percent. One month ago — on Feb. 12 — those numbers were 48 percent and 47.2 percent, respectively. So this average of polls has shown almost literally no change.

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http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/03/12/approval-ratings-gas-prices-and-statistical-noise/

[ProSense]

1. Kick! n/t

[Tarheel_Dem]

2. K&R

[dmallind]

3. may be a tad premature but that's why it's a leading indicator I s'pose. nt