CBS & ABC apparently monkeying with the polls:

[Are_grits_groceries]

Sun Tzu (@JeffersonObama)
3/12/12 9:12 PM
ABC Pollster increased GOP weighting by a whopping 7 points from Feb to March. 9 Million new Republicans have not been registered in 30 days

Sun Tzu (@JeffersonObama)
3/12/12 9:15 PM
Shame on ABC to manipulate polls as did CBS today to reflect GOP memes and Gas narratives. Increased GOP weighting by 7 POINTS!!! #p2

Sun Tzu (@JeffersonObama)
3/12/12 9:19 PM
ABC Poll Data Cross Tabs in March abcnews.go.com/images/Polling… vs Feb. washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politic… (look at 7% GOP VOTER ID SHIFT in March #polls #p2

Sun Tzu (@JeffersonObama)
3/12/12 9:29 PM
Every pundit on Politico, The Hill, National Journal, CNN, NYT, MSNBC...now talking about this GOP miracle shift overnight. I wonder why??

Sun Tzu (@JeffersonObama)
3/12/12 9:41 PM
CBS/NYT Poll, 4% of Dem voters were reduced or eliminated from Feb. to March poll cross tabs, or 5.2 Million Dem voters nytimes.com/interactive/20…

Sun Tzu (@JeffersonObama)
3/12/12 9:44 PM
ABC Poll increased GOP weighting from Feb. to March by 7 points & 9 million GOP voters & CBS poll eliminated 4% or 5.2 Mill. Dem voters #p2








What a racket!
Who knows what the numbers really are? They do seem to be creating the meme of Obama's drop because of gas prices. Is he really being that negatively impacted? It does start the cycle and create a self-fulfilling prophecy. Once the message gets rolling, the more people may actually report feeling negative.

[WCGreen]

1. Links would be helpfull....

[Jim__]

3. Here's a link to a similar story - not sure if it's the same one.

http://www.thepeoplesview.net/2012/03/explaining-dip-obama-approval-rating.html

[WCGreen]

27. Thanks....

[Lost-in-FL]

2. Seeking ratings?

I wonder if this is a political move or perhaps a desire to get more traffic in their web sites and/or rating increases. Seriously, there is a lack of important US news; Rush losing sponsors is no news anymore and only helps democrats, people not biting into the GOP cry for lowering gas prices, GOP primary almost over with Mittens grabbing the nomination.

[Botany]

4. they have to because w/ the republicans having a 25 point downside w/ female voters the truth ....

... would kill their golden goose w/ their election coverage.

[Scuba]

5. Preparing the narrative?

[libtodeath]

7. Making the theft of the Presidency once more

seem plausible.

[Scuba]

8. That hat is not made from foil....

... as we've known for 12 years.

[Gman]

6. That's the only thing that makes sense

I've never seem any president drop 10 points in a month.

[tularetom]

9. It's the only weapon they have in their arsenal

Unemployment is down, retail sales are up, auto industry is prospering, we're out of Iraq, we'll be out of Afghanistan sooner than promised, women are pissed off at the republicans, WTF else do they have to attack Obama with.

So their buddies in the oil bidness start exporting more oil thus refining less here at home and raising the price of gas at the pump. Then their buddies in the press start running bullshit stories about how the increased price of gas is going to kill Obama's chances of re-election.

And pretty soon the speculation becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. You don't have to put very much tinfoil on your head to believe it's being done deliberately.

[NRaleighLiberal]

10. The MSM needs a close horse race so people will tune in. They do NOT care for the country.

Just their profits.

Disgusting - good post - I saw these tweets last night.

[get the red out]

11. Absolutely!

We kept seeing that last time, McCain "leading" and people just loving Sarah Palin, then the bottom dropped out just as strangely and the media turned on their recent darling Sarah.

They are writing a novel again. It's too shitty to be anything but self-published.

[Aerows]

14. That's exactly what is going on here

The MSM is a business, and they are in the news business. If there isn't any news, they will manufacture some.

It's has gotten so blatant lately. Are they so stupid that they think people have no access to other sources of information?

[NRaleighLiberal]

24. They are stupid, and they make their watchers even more stupid.

[Aerows]

26. Which is the real travesty here

I've had several years to get over being pissed about it, since the run up to the war on Iraq, but it still makes me angry. I take solace in the fact that their ratings dwindle each year, and their credibility has eroded steadily. The river wears down the rock.

[hlthe2b]

12. Calling Nate Silver: Please weigh in...

Last edited Tue Mar 13, 2012, 10:58 AM - Edit history (1)

[regnaD kciN]

13. Nate Silver is currently taking the new poll results at face value...

...and now saying the election is a "toss-up" rather than having Obama favored to win.

[Aerows]

17. Well of course

The Republican nomination fight has been a disaster for the party, not to mention their disdain for women, and the improving economy.

If they don't all parrot "OH MY GOD IT'S SO CLOSE" nobody will bother to tune it, because nobody expects anything the Republicans have to beat President Obama. The GOP realistically has the choice between a phony, a religious nut job, and a poisonous gas bag, and they know it. The phony is going to get the nomination, and no one is enthused by that prospect on the GOP side.

[ProSense]

18. Nate Silver

calls it statistical noise:

Approval Ratings, Gas Prices and Statistical Noise

By NATE SILVER

8:49 p.m. | Updated This analysis was written and published before I had seen the results of the new New York Times/CBS News poll — which had President Obama’s approval ratings dropping all the way down to 41 percent. That certainly weighs the evidence more in the direction of Mr. Obama’s numbers having declined from their February peaks — and makes November’s election look more like a toss-up than one that leans toward Mr. Obama.

But the point remains that there is a lot of noise in polling data. The New York Times and Washington Post polls showed declining numbers for Mr. Obama. But the Gallup tracking poll, also published on Monday, showed Mr. Obama’s approval rating rising to 49 percent, one of the higher figures he has posted in that survey.

<...>

As of Monday, Mr. Obama’s approval rating in the Real Clear Politics average of polls is 48 percent, and his disapproval rating is 47.5 percent. One month ago — on Feb. 12 — those numbers were 48 percent and 47.2 percent, respectively. So this average of polls has shown almost literally no change.

- more -

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/03/12/approval-ratings-gas-prices-and-statistical-noise/

[hlthe2b]

20. Thanks.....

(name corrected)

[WI_DEM]

15. It's all in the game. They will manipulate results so the 'horse race' will attract viewers.

[bemildred]

16. It can't be over yet, there is a lot of money at stake.

Therefore it must be close.

[Upton]

19. Just like in 2010..when the polls show bad news for Democrats

a bunch of DUers call them lies. Heck, Nate Silver was even attacked here..with claims that since he now worked for the NYT he can't be trusted..

The polls were pretty much right on in 2008 and '10..what makes you think they aren't now?

[SidDithers]

21. Gallup has Obama at a 49% approval rating...

http://www.gallup.com/poll/113980/gallup-daily-obama-job-approval.aspx

"The polls were pretty much right on".

Sid

[ProSense]

22. Well

Nate Silver isn't buying it either: http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=418889

[Upton]

23. I read the article...

and some folks around here might think about taking Nate's advice:

This is the same old story, in other words. In overreacting to every tick in Mr. Obama’s approval ratings, you’ll risk losing sight of the bigger picture.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/03/12/approval-ratings-gas-prices-and-statistical-noise/

[girl gone mad]

29. Oh yeah..

I remember being called a troll because I cited Coakley's disastrous polling which pointed to certain victory for Scott Brown. Denial is a powerful drug.

[Cali_Democrat]

25. The media wants and needs a horse race

The oversampling of Republicans was obviously intentional.

[nadinbrzezinski]

28. In other news, water is wet

Polls have been like this since 2000