Charlie Rose Show on Afghanistan - some highlights...various panel members, good discussion.
I can't type any more - it is too depressing - but see below. Filkins and Logan and van Dyk seem to be the realists, Jones and Khalilzad want us to be there forever and are not very realistic on the state of things.
On edit - they are on to Pakistan and how much of a root cause/problem they are, and it doesn't matter what you do with Afghanistan if you don't deal with Pakistan. The ideas that gave rise to 9/11 are there, and remain still.
Dexter Filkins - this feels like the beginning of the end. The government there seems corrupt from top to bottom and can't survive once we leave - it's not looking good right now. Thinks the panel is missing the point - this is the 10th year. What will take over when the US leaves or goes down to 20K? There is a batallion of 600 Afghans to replace us - it is laughable. Afghan government cannot stand on its own when we leave - it is a fiction. We should stop all talk of leaving in 2014 - it will be another decade and X billion dollars - this is any honest reckoning, that the Afghan government currently is a criminal enterprise that steals from its people and the US government. But we can't do this, so civil war is very likely (same as when Soviets left) - it ended at 9/11!
Seth Jones (rand corp) - two sides to this - Taliban not polling well there either - so two unpopular sides there. Despite recent events, we can overstate the downside - government better than insurgency. Spent lots of time there, over past few years different models, such as large numbers of US forces there to protect the population. Another model, more effective, is use of special ops and intelligence units, smaller forces footprint...this could be more effective - pull out most conventional forces and focus on training from special ops.
Lara Logan - doesn't care for polls, goes with the gut. force carried more weight than anything else - they are preparing for some sort of war - Taliban not focused on US but the situation there after we leave. Prepping for the coming civil war. Taliban commanders told her this. US Diplomat there was completely out of touch according to an Afghan leader. So - US out of touch with reality on the ground - Taliban will not share power, and don't care about popularity. Not a lot the US can do with words - the Koran burning combined with recent killing is a disaster for us - too big to fix with words - US finds itself with no allies - Karzai government is now an enemy too. Taliban is an enemy, Afghan government is an enemy, Afghan people are our enemy. Bottom line - Afgans want to see the US perp who did the killing hanging on a tree, and fast. US can pay compensation, but may not be enough. Koran burning spread faster throughout Afghanistan than the recent incident. Biggest issue - erosion of trust. Without trust, US forces much more at risk. But...in 2001, Taliban had 90% of Afghan - they are now fighting to get back to power. It is not just a counterinsurgency - thinks this is a mistake we make, not accepting what the Taliban were and want.
Khalilzad - we need to show support for the victims of the recent killing rampage - worried our legal situation and Afghan's desires are in conflict. Assumption US is out by end of 2014 needs to be reexamined. We will need 20K to stay there. Taliban having lots of issues too - factionalized, divided - both sides are having difficulties (US and Taliban) - not as pessimistic as Dexter and Lara - doesn't think this will end up as a failed mission necessarily - many contingencies. Good chance we will not fail there (still must be our objective, since failure there will be damaging and help spread terrorism). Lara is right - faster we move to deal with the rogue US officer the better, but money/reparations are important also. Yes, there is a trust deficit between Karzai and US government - but Afghans are practical and they need the US - and vice versa. Yes, there are problems, but sees a basis of reducing them and having a long term relationship because the alternative for both sides is far worse. If we leave, we may have to go back again - there will be a civil war, extremists will come in and we will have to bomb from afar for a long time.
Jere van Dyk - Looking at parallels from now until the 1980s - glue that held them together in 1980 was the Koran. Sees lots of parallels between now and then. Echos the splits in the Taliban, but there is a common goal - an Islamic government. US does not want to leave a vacuum (that Soviet Union did). Even though government is completely corrupt, better to be slave of master, than slave of a slave. Thinks Taliban will have lots of power, but not sure they can form a government.
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