Re: 2014 - Are you fairly confident/optimistic regarding the election?

[KamaAina]

I normally don't do copycats outside Teh Longue , but I thought it was important to keep some focus on the next election at hand.

[JI7]

1. too early at this point, whether things were looking good or bad for us now

could easily change .

i would say it would depend how things are just before summer of next year.

it is early enough that we can work on the negatives. and we should build up on the positives. regardless of how we do in polls it's always good to continue doing some of the usual work so when it comes time to vote it would be easier to get people out.

one thing i am concerned about are issues related to voting rights. republicans will do all they can to prevent those more likely to vote Dem from voting. this is something we should always be working on .

[liberal_at_heart]

2. Congress has a 9% approval rating. Too hard to tell what the voters will do.

[Warpy]

3. Not confident at all but not pessimistic, either

I do think Democrats will do better, I just don't think they'll be the better kind of Democrats, not in red-red areas that sent teabaggers into office.

People are disgusted with Republicans, especially the teabagger type. They're just not ready to elect progressives in too many parts of the country, or the party is not ready to run them.

[ruffburr]

4. Ok a brief repeat-

If people vote for repub wingers against their own self interest we are all screwed and kiss the middle class good bye , At this point i'm not too sure that the people get it , so i'm really not so sure.

[jazzimov]

5. Yes, and no.

I am confident about my personal House election. It's Democrat Cooper, who has been in the House a long time and is in a fairly Blue district. I know he's a Blue Dog, but I've been following his votes and he always votes for the right thing.I think it's EXTREMELY important that Dems re-take the House. Not just to give Dems Government rule, but because all revenue bills have to start in the House. I'd love to see tax reform with the Corporations and the 1% paying their fair share and see Social Security caps eliminated - and that means it has to start in the House. Thus, I will be donating to House races outside my district.

I'm not so optimistic about our Senate race. We really need to get Alexander out of there, but with the Black Box voting I'm not so confident. I'd love to see a Democrat running I could get behind (unlike the last Senate race here in TN), but I think it's more important that we get a Dem, ANY Dem, who will caucus with the Democratic Party. We can correct his voting once he gets into office. I'd love to see a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate, but I'll be happy if we just reform the filibuster rules.

Regardless, this is a very VERY important race!

[lastlib]

6. pessimistic based on Repukes' proclivity to do underhanded sh1t....

...to steal it! Trust me, they will, because they have, and because they will stop at nothing to attain power. It's what they do. I would be confident if the election hinged solely on what's right and best for the American people, but it doesn't. It hinges on our ability as a party to overcome Repug sh1t and get our message out to enough people who will thereby be motivated to exercise their vote.

[Gothmog]

7. 2014 may be an interesting year in Texas

I was at some county party meetings in March of this year where a couple of party leaders were taking the position that we should focus on 2016 and ignore the 2014 races. I strongly disagreed with this view and now I feel vindicated. Senator Davis' filibuster and her campaign is generating a great deal of excitement in Texas. I am seeing more people show up at events than I saw in 2008.

Senator Davis is focusing on single white women and Hispanics as blocks that have either under performed or have been voting republican. Greg Abbott is going to be the GOP nominee and he is not a nice person. Abbott is alienating Hispanic voters with his voter id law and women voters with his war on women (search twitter for #abortionbarbie to see the type of campaign being waged by Greg).

We are getting a good slate of candidates signed up for this race and I am hopeful.

[KamaAina]

8. Abbott is indeed a first-class POS

as a wheelchair user, he brags that he's created access at many locations throughout Texas, because of his status as Attorney General.

O rly? So places he wants to go are supposed to be accessible, but ordinary Texans who use wheelchairs (I know at least three) are SOL?

[Gothmog]

12. I was at the same firm as Greg in the 1980s

He is not a nice person. Again, search twitter for #abortionbarbie to see the campaign that Greg is running. The Young Conservative of Texas event at the University of Texas was sponsored by one of Greg's people. http://us7.campaign-archive1.com/?u=824cb3251abbeba9dfdf52496&id=143331b7c3&e=88f3e58ec1

[CK_John]

9. Not very confident, The GOP understands process and has a farm team. Dem

have a hard time organizing a fire drill, don't know process and wait to the last minute to do anything. How we win at all amazes me.

[dipsydoodle]

10. Inasmuch there will be one.

Yes.

[unblock]

11. my lichtman's keys analysis:

congressionally, i'm confident that 2014 will not make a major change in washington dynamics.

likely we won't gain the house, and even if we did, it wouldn't be enough to guarantee consistent victories there.

we also are unlikely to have a filibuster-proof senate, unless we actually, finally, change the rules. i think *if* that happens, it will be for appointments only. they'll leave the legislative filibuster alone.


presidentially, democrats have a solid shot at 2016, according to lichtman's keys.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Keys_to_the_White_House

i see the keys this way:

1. mandate(d) will republicans have more seats in the house after the 2014 elections than they did after the 2010 elections? i don't think they'll pick up 9 seats, so i give this to the democrats.
2. contest(d) i think hillary will be fairly uncontested.
3. incumbency(r) no third term for obama.
4. third party(d) i don't see a viable third party challenge.
5. short term economy(d) we won't be in a recession (the economy will continue to suck, but gdp will be positive.
6. long term economy(d) i think real per capita gdp 2013-2016 will be better than 2005-2012. not too hard as real per capita was barely more than break-even 2005-2012.
7. policy change(r) i'm giving this one to the republicans because i put obamacare in obama's first term. there's certainly an argument to put this in the (d) column, especially the more republicans complain about it!
8. social unrest(d) no major social unrest.
9. scandal(d) no major scandal.
10. foreign policy/military failure(d) no major failure.
11. foreign policy/military success(r) no major success.
12. incumbent charisma(r) i like hillary, but i don't see her as jfk-level charismatic
13. challenger charisma(d) i don't see a sufficiently charismatic republican, though christie has a shot at it. i loathe him, but i think he can pull democrats the way reagan did.

that gives democrats 9 of the keys, needing only 8.

it's still early, but republicans need a couple things to go their way to win in 2016.

[PeteSelman]

13. No. I have very little confidence in the party and the People.

The party won't do anything to scare off their corporate donors and the People are fickle and ignorant. I'm scared to death of next November.