General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsRepublicans Whipping our Asses 69% to 31% Swing State Governorships
Last edited Sun Oct 27, 2013, 10:39 AM - Edit history (3)
[FONT SIZE = 2.9]
Swing State Governorships - Republicans hold 69% of them now (As defined by Wikipedia)
Democrats
New Hampshire - Gov. Maggie Hassan - Latest Approval Rating 51% (PPP) (Election: 11/4/14)
Colorado - Gov. John Hickenlooper - Latest Approval Rating 48% (Quinnipiac) (Election: 11/4/14)
Minnesota - Gov. Mark Dayton - Latest Approval Rating 47% (Survey USA) (Election: 11/4/14)
Virginia - Gov-Elect* Terry McAullife (Election:11/5/13)
Republicans
IN RIPE FOR PICKING ORDER
Pennsylvania - Tom Corbett - Latest -"Deserves Reelection" poll) 26% (Harper Polling) (Election:11/4/14)
Arizona - Jan Brewer - Latest Approval Rating 31% (Behavioral Research Center) (Election: 11/4/14)
Ohio - Gov. John Kasich - Latest Approval Rating 42% (PPP) (Election: 11/4/14)
Florida - Gov. Rick Scott - Latest Approval Rating 43% (PPP) (Election: 11/4/14)
Wisconsin - Scott Walker - Latest Approval Rating 48% (PPP) (Election: 11/4/14)
Iowa - Terry Branstad - Latest Approval Rating 54% (DeMoines Register) (Election: 11/4/14)
New Mexico - Susana Martinez - Latest Approval Rating 66% (KOB Eyewitness News) (Election 11/4/14)
Nevada - Brian Sandoval - Latest Approval Rating 58% (PPP) (Election: 11/4/14)
North Carolina - Pat McCrory - Latest Approval Rating 35% (PPP) (Election: 11/8/16)
[font color=blue]
ON EDIT: OTHER BRIGHT LIGHTS
Michigan - Republican Governor Rick Snyder - 38% Approval - PPP (Election: 11/4/14)
Maine - Republican Governor Paul Le Page - 35% Approval - PPP (Election: 11/4/14) [font color=black]
ON A SIMILAR NOTE, WHY IS THIS MAN, HOWARD DEAN, NOT STILL RUNNING OUR PARTY ?????
Howard Dean: And the Senate, just to be modest.
You would have to renew the 50 state strategy, first of all. Second, the campaign should really be starting right now, identifying Republicans who are way outside the mainstream.
The reason we hold the Senate today is that over the last two election cycles the Republicans have nominated people who are just wholly unfit for office in key races. We should make a case that a number of people in the Republican majority are wholly unfit for office, and we should really talk about their record.
The 50 state strategy was designed for the long term, not the short term. Because it was very successfuland because we have a Democratic President, who tend to view the DNC as part of their reelection apparatusthe strategy has gone by the wayside. Its a mistake to abandon long-term electoral strategy.
HPR: What do you see as the role of Organizing for Action in all of that?
HD: Its well intended, but President Obama didnt get elected because of the issues. He got elected because he represents a new generation. They tried this four years ago, and it didnt particularly work then and its not going to work now. You cant mobilize all these young people who were mobilized because Barack Obama is Barack Obamanot because he stood for this or that or the other thing.
http://www.denverpost.com/breakingnews/ci_23927275/poll-hickenloopers-approval-rating-lackluster
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/maggie-hassan/
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/08/20/john-kasich-approval-rating_n_3784797.html
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/10/02/charlie-crist-rick-scott-poll_n_4031808.html
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/article/20130929/NEWS09/309290082/
http://kjzz.org/content/3616/gov-jan-brewers-approval-ratings-drop-31-percent
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/pat-mccrory/
http://www.kob.com/article/stories/S3039990.shtml?cat=500
http://www.westgov.org/news/295-news-2013/491-politico-profiles-new-mexico-governor-susana-martinez-nevada-http://www.westgov.org/news/295-news-2013/491-politico-profiles-new-mexico-governor-susana-martinez-nevada-governor-brian-sandoval
http://host.madison.com/news/local/writers/jack_craver/poll-scott-walker-stays-below-percent-approval-among-wisconsin-voters/article_f0be3078-1fb7-11e3-8f9c-0019bb2963f4.html
http://harvardpolitics.com/interviews/howard-dean-former-dnc-chair-and-vermont-governor/
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/paul-lepage/
madokie
(51,076 posts)Yes she sucks big time. Initiated a big ass tax cut for the rich upon her arrival and now is cutting services because of revenue shortfalls. A real b if ever there is one.
Skidmore
(37,364 posts)He should have had that job to begin with.
Laura PourMeADrink
(42,770 posts)some kind of bad blood between Obama and Dean, right?? I have heard that before but never researched the details. Is he just too much of an outsider with too much of a super brain?
mountain grammy
(26,644 posts)Skidmore
(37,364 posts)begin with in 2008. We would have gone far with healthcare more quickly too. I really was upset when we ended up with one of the Emanuel brothers playing a key role too. Dr. Dean had a much greater grasp of policy development and implementation.
mountain grammy
(26,644 posts)Recursion
(56,582 posts)If we can even limit GOP advances in an off-Presidential year, that's a good thing. If we can actually make gains, that's pretty much unprecedented, and awesome.
Look to VA. McAuliffe is killing it right now (not to temp the wrath of the whatever from high atop the thing), and VA being an off-off-year is usually something of a bellweather.
Hope, brethren and sistren.
Laura PourMeADrink
(42,770 posts)about fair elections. If Bush and Harris hadn't been in charge in Florida...........
mucifer
(23,559 posts)Laura PourMeADrink
(42,770 posts)His decision cleared the primary slate for Quinn, barring a new entrant who would face a fairly quick turnaround with a December filing deadline and a March primary looming.
Motown_Johnny
(22,308 posts)This is from December 2012, but unions are still pissed and people here still don't support this change. I think we can lose this loser in 2014.
http://www.freep.com/article/20121218/NEWS15/121218032/Gov-Rick-Snyder-s-approval-rating-drops-sharply-Democratic-polling-firm-says
^snip^
LANSING -- A poll by the Democratic polling firm Public Policy Polling finds support for Gov. Rick Snyder has plummeted since he changed his position on right-to-work legislation Dec. 6 and backed its fast-track approval in the lame-duck Michigan Legislature.
The poll, released Tuesday, found 38% of Michigan voters approve of Snyder and 56% disapprove, PPP said.
That marks a significant drop from PPPs last poll on Snyder, the weekend before the Nov. 6 election, when 47% of voters surveyed approved of Snyder and 37% disapproved.
Theres not much doubt that its the right-to-work law and his embrace of other actions by the Republican Legislature that are driving this precipitous drop in Snyders popularity, the polling firm said.
Edit to add:
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/06/schauer-leads-snyder-by-4-points.html#more
^snip^
June 04, 2013
Schauer leads Snyder by 4 points
Raleigh, N.C.- PPP's first poll of the Michigan Gubernatorial race since Mark Schauer's official entry finds the Democrat leading incumbent Rick Snyder 42/38. PPP's polling of this match up over the last six months has been very consistent- in March Schauer also led Snyder by 4 points and in December he had a 5 point advantage.
Schauer's initial lead has a lot more to do with Snyder than it does with himself. Even after his official candidacy announcement, he has just 38% statewide name recognition. But Snyder continues to be one of the most unpopular Governors in the country with only 40% of voters approving of him to 52% who disapprove. He's at 40/51 with independents and Democrats (78% disapproval) dislike him a good deal more than Republicans (68% approval) like him.
Snyder's role in the passage of right to work legislation continues to be a big problem for him. Just 40% of voters support that law to 50% who oppose it, numbers that have not seen any improvement since the initial furor after it passed in December. Snyder continues to have issues with his brand, as only 34% of voters now consider him to be 'one tough nerd' to 45% who don't.
Rick Snyders numbers have been in a holding pattern since December, said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. His approval numbers continue to be poor and he continues to lag behind his potential opposition for next year.
tiredtoo
(2,949 posts)But it is a long way off to next election. Snyder and cronies have the money and skill to repair his image. We must continue in our efforts to paint him as the crook and liar he really is.
Laura PourMeADrink
(42,770 posts)ancianita
(36,132 posts)I love Debbie but she's a drag on the fight to unseat Republicans. She's become too much an anti-progressive, in-house rule enforcer and not enough a strategist for defeating opposition incumbents.
Laura PourMeADrink
(42,770 posts)TBF
(32,086 posts)we need him back.
Texas is not considered a swing state of course, but it may be soon. We are going to work hard with Wendy Davis - who knows we might get an upset (she's popular with national name recognition running against a weak candidate - Greg Abbott).
Eleanors38
(18,318 posts)BlueMTexpat
(15,372 posts)This:
Dean had to fight Rahm Emanuel tooth and nail all the way on this. Emanuel took his vengeance by persuading Prez O not to name Dean as HHS Sec'y, which is the job that Dean specifically wanted. Prez O listened to Emanuel who argued that Dean was "too polarizing" - in spite of the enormous evidence of Dean's effectiveness at getting the electorate to understand anything he put his hand to. And Dean's passion was always for healthcare.
Thus, Prez O appointed Kain to the DNC - a decent guy, but not one to continue the 50 state strategy and things have languished at state and local levels since. More egregiously, he also followed Emanuel's advice in appointing Sebelius as HHS Sec'y, which is likely one of the main reasons why the public option - or expansion of Medicare to all - were never on the table.
These were probably my two biggest disappointments with Prez O's early days in office. Had he stiffened his - and other Dems' spines - right at the outset, we would quite likely not be in this current mess. Instead, he listened to Emanuel - one of his biggest career mistakes, IMO.
I am not alone in believing this.
Laura PourMeADrink
(42,770 posts)own accord and someone smart convinced him to put Dean in (if he still wants it)
BlueMTexpat
(15,372 posts)to find, fund, nurture and elect liberal Dem candidates at state and local levels for the next electoral cycles. If the DNC would only watch, listen, learn and return to the 50 state strategy, that would help us all more than Dean as HHS Sec'y at this point.
Perhaps the next Dem President will show more wisdom than Prez O did and name him then. Or who knows, perhaps that President might even be Dean - although I sincerely doubt that he will run again.
In the meantime, check out DFA: http://www.democracyforamerica.com/
It is an organization that believes in voter education and empowerment.
Laura PourMeADrink
(42,770 posts)HPR: Who is your 2016 pick?
HD: Hillary.
http://harvardpolitics.com/interviews/howard-dean-former-dnc-chair-and-vermont-governor/
BlueMTexpat
(15,372 posts)Hillary is a strong Dem candidate for President in 2016, as frankly do I.
It's not necessarily that he believes that she is the most progressive candidate, because she is not that. But she has the organization, the name recognition, the backers, the smarts and the real experience at dealing with and in the battleground that is Washington today. And frankly, it's time for a woman President. Long past, IMO. The RW are terrified of a Hillary candidacy, believe me! That in itself is heartening.
My belief is that Dean - above all, a pragmatic individual - believes that with Hillary and her organization, DFA and organizations like it can concentrate on funding the local and state races, nurturing candidates who can effectively pull our center-right Dem party more to where it should be on the political spectrum.
After all, even if we had the ideal progressive candidate who could realistically win a Presidential election in 2016 (and I have no idea who that mythical creature might be - there are lots of names bandied about here whom we all like/prefer, but who would have no realistic chances in 2016 even if they could be convinced to run), that person still would be handicapped by too many DINOs in Congress, even if we succeeded in getting Dem majorities in both Houses (a BIG if that!), to get policies through Congress that would be any better than Hillary's.
I can understand the frustration of some here who grow impatient with the lack of a more progressive Dem agenda generally and, in many ways, share that frustration. But I have been around for a long time: there have been 13 different US Presidents during my lifetime. Other than FDR, few of the Dem Presidents were appreciated during their actual terms in office. Some, like Truman and Kennedy, achieved posthumous recognition for their accomplishments. Carter has only been truly appreciated in recent years. Bill Clinton and Obama might be the two since FDR who have received the most credit during their actual terms in office - and most DUers have been around to see what GOP crap both have had to deal with even to accomplish what they have.
Changing the political playing ground is not simply getting a progressive President elected and then relaxing. In the "old days," perhaps, but definitely not since 1980. It requires constant attention - especially to what's happening at the grassroots level and where and how corporate monies are being spent - and moving steadily, if slowly, forward. But NEVER EVER taking anything for granted .... Believe me, the RW GOP lies and finagling will never stop - they just get worse.
Laura PourMeADrink
(42,770 posts)we control the House and Senate. And, only if they didn't worry about reelection. Just like the Dems would did what was right when we had control and got ACA and then they lost their seats.
It seems to me that after observing the last year - the president has little power. Especially the way the republicans are completely blocking with zero compromise. I bet that even when Hillary becomes President - she will have the same problems Obama has
KoKo
(84,711 posts)I've posted about the experience in NC where the Dean Activists (along with Kucinich activitsts) re-energized our Dem Party. The party didn't even have computerized lists of consistent Dem Voters or Donors to the party. Dean Activists volunteered and put together data base of those consistent voters and those who were donors to target for 2004 Election. We had a great group of young Dem Activists along with Middle and Older Voters who worked together organizing Precincts (which had been allowed to languish with little attention) and we had Meet Ups and those of us against the Iraq Invasion had demonstrations that went on before and after the Invasion with speakers from across the country (yes, even the now hated Cyndie Sheehan and other activists ) who energized us. We even had our own Progressive Dem Convention and voted on a platform to present to the our Dem Party for inclusion. We couldn't get Kerry elected but we were rolling and organizing and even managed to get the worse of the Computer/Diebold paperless trail voting machines out of our state. We had Opti-Scan ballots so that there would be a paper trail.
NC went Blue for Obama in 2008!
And, then it started to fall apart. Had no help from the Obama Activists to support the grassroots work we had done and no infusion of money to support our efforts. We had some scandal with our Governor and at the top of maninstream Dem Party which didn't help and neither did the John Edwards fiasco help but the activists were pretty much sidelined.
Obama lost NC in 2012 and the Republicans gerrymandered us into a Sweep of Repugs re-elected while we lost some of our best Dems in Congress. Our State Legislation is Republican for the first time in 150 years! We are fighting like hell to take it back...but the Dem Party has not being helped here from above. It's the Obama Party...and no grassroots support for anything else.
The help we are getting is from Foundations. And we are thankful for that because we are fighting against ALEC/KOCH Brothers and a Local Repug Business Cartel who have endless funds and the Fundamental Christians in their pockets.
If Howard Dean had stated Dem Chair...I don't believe this would have happened. His 50 State Strategy was a winner. But the Dem Party traditionalists wanted to focus on SWING STATES to put their money in. And, to promote the candidates they supported rather than grooming new voices from grassroots.
KoKo
(84,711 posts)whathehell
(29,082 posts)I think he and PBO found Dean too progressive and that is unfortunate...Had Dean not
been sabotaged in 2004, had he won the presidency, we'd be a different country right now, IMO.
Laura PourMeADrink
(42,770 posts)"First of all, in fairness you've got to blame the Republicans for some of this because they delayed everything they possibly could, threw as many monkey wrenches into the process as they could, and there's some success here," Dean said.
Dean added that the 36 states that relied on the Department of Health and Human Services to operate the new insurance marketplaces -- as opposed to setting up their own state-run exchanges -- should have been split up into four or five different regions to prevent one consolidated source from crashing.
"And then put each of these regions out to bid, so you don't have one single contractor who, if they screw up, screws up the whole system, which is what's happened," Dean said.
States that opted to run their own insurance marketplaces, including New York, California and Kentucky, have been faring much better than states relying on HHS.
Dean argued that "because the Republican governors refused to accept exchanges, the Obama administration had to resort to a single federal marketplace, resulting in the technical malfunctions that have been called "excruciatingly embarrassing by former White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs.
Although Republicans may not have been directly responsible for the rollouts technical fiasco, "they did slow the process down considerably and that time does make a difference in the website," Dean said.
whathehell
(29,082 posts)I'm kind of a Deaniac -- I think he's right (and has been) about most things.
He's also a fighter, not a wimp -- That in itself puts him head and shoulders above
most of our so called "democrats" these days, IMO.
BlueMTexpat
(15,372 posts)Rahm
Ironically, I believe that PBO was among the original "Dean Dozen" DFA candidates, i.e., supported by DFA for his US Senate race.
whathehell
(29,082 posts)Sad to hear about PBO being among the "Dean Dozen". It seems they didn't "return the favor", as it were.
I think Obama fooled a lot of people -- I'd take Dr. Howard Dean over the pack of them.
TBF
(32,086 posts)the states still have enough power to hurt a lot of folks (kill programs etc). We should be focusing on this.
Old Union Guy
(738 posts)whathehell
(29,082 posts)tape was played -- and it was played over and over -- they mysteriously decided to DELETE all
the background noise -- uh huh -- so as to make him look crazy and "out of control".
No consensus on responsibility for this bit of "rat-fucking" -- some thought it was the
Kerry camp, but the corporate media, knowing Dean to be THE most progressive of all the candidates,
was undoubtedly happy to oblige.
PADemD
(4,482 posts)He played the Dean scream ad nauseam.
Laura PourMeADrink
(42,770 posts)his pants were on fire he wouldn't miss a beat
zeemike
(18,998 posts)That is all I need to say.
dotymed
(5,610 posts)is a no-brainer if we want all of America to represented as the Progressives we truly are.
We must break-up the Southern red state block of obstructionists. This should not just be about "swing states."
That is a cop-out. It seems more like collusion between corporatists than the struggle to make America a majority represented nation.
I did not check, but I'd bet that the aforementioned republicans with high approval ratings, expanded their Medicaid roles in response to the ACA.
The vast majority of Americans want and desperately need health care. Universal health care is the preference, hopefully the ACA will help us reach that goal.
To go after "swing states" and neglect the other states suffering under neo-con rule is cruel and not a strategy that is helpful to our entire nation.
Laura PourMeADrink
(42,770 posts)It just strikes me that just by the definition alone - that they could go either way - we should have closer to 50% of them. No?
It's funny that Dean preached taking control locally where the election process is run and it was the Republicans who listened
dotymed
(5,610 posts)You stated that the 50 state strategy of Dr. Deans (and his successful chairmanship of the DNC should be reinstated) should be our continued strategy.
I totally agree. Thank you.
Laura PourMeADrink
(42,770 posts)1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)is term limited and there is no republican with huge favorability that has announced, but neither has any Democrat. I'm hoping (former Attorney General) Terry Goddard gives it another shot.
I think he'd have a real shot, as Arizona (with its highly "AM-radio" influencible right, e.g., jake Flake has been officially been disclared a "rino" is beoming the exemplar for a teaparty/establishment republican blood bath.
A solid voter registration/GOTV effort and a good campaign could produce a Democratic Governor again.
4bucksagallon
(975 posts)Mr., born with my foot in my mouth, LePage is almost certain to get defeated, thankfully.
Laura PourMeADrink
(42,770 posts)picking
Eleanors38
(18,318 posts)Its aim of being a non-threatening entity (since the Democrats are hardly a party) to corporate power. To have a 50-state base IS to define a Party, and the DNC CANNOT have that since it cannot control that.
The Democratic "Party" faces a far greater near-term split than the GOPer does. In the personage of the DNC, it has become a personalistic buraucracy, centered on corporate strategies effected at the national level; a shrinking pastiche of big-city voting blocs, and an aging "60s-era activist" vote. It has all these grand, wonderful and evolving demographics, but doesn't know what to do with them, because the DNC isn't and doesn't want to be a grass-roots party.
That is why Dean is where he is now.
Than you for engendering a constructive discussion.
TBF
(32,086 posts)We need to take over the DNC. They are very short-sighted and will not win Texas unless they can embrace labor. When they do they open it up for the Castro Bros. - I would've said Julian Castro was the party in TX until Wendy started speaking up. We've got a lot of potential here.
Eleanors38
(18,318 posts)whether it is fast-food workers or underpaid (swindled) construction workers, both of whom have demonstrated in Austin. I don't expect to see the Democratic Party organizing on either group's behalf. A lot different atmosphere in "Weirdsville-line-dancing-to-Thriller-Austin" now than lefty Austin of 40 years (or even 20 yrs) ago. But things are stirring.
Laelth
(32,017 posts)-Laelth
spanone
(135,861 posts)woodsprite
(11,923 posts)Faith and Freedom yesterday. They are targeting to get at least 37 state governorships flipped. They said that way, they could defeat Obamacare at the state level, despite the Supreme Court's ruling.
I would have stayed on the line to talk to a live person to ask to be removed from their list and give them my opinion, but my bruised ribs were hurting too bad.
Laura PourMeADrink
(42,770 posts)woodsprite
(11,923 posts)I didn't hang on the line to listen to what states they were targeting. They we're asking for donations for their "cause". I'm assuming DE would be one since we trend Democrat for most elections. Our family is voting for a Green Party candidate for the first time for our Mayor in November.
I knew they wanted the states. I had never heard it put in the context that that was how they would circumvent the Supreme Court ruling on the ACA.
Laura PourMeADrink
(42,770 posts)has literally blocked cnn and msnbc from his TV scroll so not a second of either gets aired.
During the shutdown period when there were all those polls showing how it hurt the GOP - I visited him. He said that things were great - that the GOP favorability was on the rise and they will be picking up tons of seats in the House
It is what Fox is pushing. I told him CBS, ABS, CNN, and MSNBC are saying something EXACTLY opposite...but he won't listen.
It is good - maybe they won't get out and work or donate to anyone.
Thucydides
(212 posts)Laura PourMeADrink
(42,770 posts)Thucydides
(212 posts)So far no one has declared, however the field looks pretty good. Charlie Crist, Bill Nelson and Alex Sink are the names being tossed around at this point. All are good choices.
OmahaBlueDog
(10,000 posts)IIRC, at one point, it was in the high 20s/low 30s.
I'd like to start seeing the party groom Alex Sink for Bill Nelson's Senate seat.
Crist, whatever his shortcomings are in terms of party loyalty, would be an improvement over Scott, and should be able to win.
Thucydides
(212 posts)I agree with your suggestion that Alex Sink be groomed for Nelsons seat, I never thought of that.
OmahaBlueDog
(10,000 posts)First, I take as a given that he will eventually replace either Leahy or Sanders in the Senate.
I want to name Dr. Dean "DNC Chair Emeritus", and give him one (and only one) task. Win back state legislatures for the Dems!
If we want to take back the house, we have to undo three decades of GOP gerrymandering. The only way to do that -- and make certain it stays done -- is to start winning state houses and state senates.
-they approve the redistricting plans
-they approve the state judges, who end up approving the plans
Also, state legislators create the backbone of future legislators at the federal level.
Laura PourMeADrink
(42,770 posts)voters with strict ID laws.
Although I think Dean would be a great senator - I think being a senator is pigeon-holing him too much. He is a big picture thinker/strategist. How about Harry Reid's job. :>
ellennelle
(614 posts)just curious, but why was mccrory rank ordered at the bottom of that list when his approval ratings have dipped even lower than the number posted here?
in fact, his pseudo-stewardship has been so despised that there is very little chance kay hagan will lose her senate seat next year, tho it had been thought some months ago it would go easily red.
Laura PourMeADrink
(42,770 posts)to figure out when NC next governor election was. I actually found a list of people
who were running in 2014 - but then it said 2016 in other places.
meadowlark5
(2,795 posts)I don't think a republican can win. So far I've heard that lunatic Ken Buck is looking to run again. And Scott Gesler, secretary of state, who tried to purge thousands of voters right before the 2012 election. I don't think, and greatly hope, either one could get elected.
Andrew Romanoff is going to run for the dems but he might be to liberal for a lot of folks in this state.