Generic Democrats lead in 37 of 61 Republican districts

[phantom power]

It's early days, of course, and leads for "generic" candidates often evaporate when real, flawed flesh and blood candidates present themselves. The smart money says Republicans still hold onto the House. But even so, these numbers from PPP nothing short of astonishing:

A new round of post-shutdown polling shows that Democrats not only have an opportunity to take back the House of Representatives next year, but that they could win a sizable majority if voter anger over the shutdown carries into 2014. Public Policy Polling has just completed surveys in an additional 25 GOP-held House districts, which means we have now surveyed a total of 61 such districts since the beginning of the government shutdown. The surveys were commissioned and paid for by MoveOn.org Political Action. Republicans will likely find this third round of surveys to be the most alarming yet, given that the new results show substantial Republican vulnerability in many districts that were not even supposed to be close.

Incumbent Republicans trail generic Democrats in 15 of the 25 districts we most recently surveyed. This means generic Democrats lead in 37 of 61 districts polled since the beginning of the government shutdown. Democrats only need to net 17 seats in order to retake the House. And the bad news for Republicans doesn’t stop there, because in the minority of the 61 districts where Republicans lead in the initial head-to-head question, 11 more Republicans fall behind once voters are informed that the Republican supported the government shutdown and 1 race becomes tied. This means that our results indicate Democrats have pickup opportunities in an astounding 49 of the 61 districts surveyed.

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It's possible if not probable that this anger will have dissipated by this time next year. But that also assumes that Tea Party Republicans won't pull any more stunts between now and next year's elections. If they do, the ill will they've built up over the shutdown could be reinforced over other issues.

The biggest danger for Democrats at this point is being shortsighted enough to enact the Republican agenda by needlessly cutting Medicare and Social Security in order to solve phantom budget problems 20 years down the road during the greatest recession since the Great Depression. Let the Republicans own shutting down the government in order to deny people healthcare, and let the Republicans and cocktail circuit pundits own attempting to cut Social Security and Medicare so that rich people won't have to pay extra taxes. The public is angry enough as it is.

http://digbysblog.blogspot.com/2013/10/generic-democrats-lead-in-37-of-61.html