Cillizza: Shutdown post-mortem.
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What changed: The GOP brand is in the gutter. Republicans didn’t start the shutdown on firm political footing, and they ended it in even worse shape, with the schism between establishment and base on full display. The one number you need to know? In a Washington Post-ABC News poll last week, 47 percent of self-identified Republicans disapproved of how their party was handling the shutdown. (Forty-nine percent approved.)
What hasn’t changed: Historic midterm election trends and a heavily gerrymandered national map. For all the talk of the House now being in play, it’s worth remembering that only one president (Bill Clinton) in the past 100 years saw his party gain seats in the House in the second midterm election of his presidency. Then there is the fact that the playing field of truly competitive seats is minuscule — the Cook Political Report ranks just 13 as truly endangered at the moment — thanks in large part to the 2011 national congressional line-drawing that, for the second straight decade, mostly protected incumbents of both parties.
What changed: President Obama found his voice. If you haven’t read or watched the speech Obama gave Thursday, the day the government reopened, you should. It was an impassioned and, at times, borderline angry speech by a man who is fed up with the way politics is practiced in Washington. “It was one of those deep-in-the-gut expressions of sadness and weariness about how he feels about this whole mess,” said one Democratic consultant, who was granted anonymity to speak freely about the president. Obama has often struggled to convey genuine emotion and investment in issues and governance as president, but he clearly feels strongly about what’s wrong with Washington.
What hasn’t changed: Obama still lacks a major second-term accomplishment as the calendar draws dangerously close to an election year. Gun control failed. Any chance at a large-scale deal on debt and spending issues seems elusive. Immigration reform, on which Obama seems set on refocusing in the wake of the shutdown, still faces a very uncertain future in a badly divided House. “There are no library wings built on standing up to the House Republicans,” that same Democratic consultant said about the recent shutdown face-off. “[It’s] not really a legacy moment.”
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http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/the-shutdown-showdown-what-changed-in-washington-what-didnt/2013/10/20/c635cc92-3995-11e3-b6a9-da62c264f40e_story.html
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