Katrina vanden Heuvel: The Republicans are surrendering nothing

[Savannahmann]

I've pointed out that even if the Republicans back down, it doesn't mean the end of all battles. The Tea Party people are dedicated, determined, and they honestly believe they are fighting for the very lifeblood of the nation. There is little that is more dangerous than a person who thinks they are right, and just keeps on coming.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/katrina-vanden-heuvel-in-debt-deal-republicans-arent-surrendering-anything/2013/10/15/b8d5dbb6-34f7-11e3-8a0e-4e2cf80831fc_story.html?tid=pm_opinions_pop

In Washington, this folly is measured by poll numbers. Republicans, and particularly the tea party, are “losing” because their public approval numbers have plummeted. Republicans are said to have “surrendered,” since they abandoned their threat to default on U.S. debts unless Democrats agreed to defund or delay Obamacare. Now Senate Republicans are offering to reopen the government and fund it at current levels only until mid-January. Supporters of the deal argue that it would allow for negotiations on a real budget before the next harsh across-the-board sequester cuts kick in, but it means that Republicans will use the threat of the sequester — and the next round of the debt ceiling showdown — to exact longer-term cuts in Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security benefits.

This is what is being talked about in the article, and now whispered about on the Hill. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_Sequestration#The_sequester_in_2014_and_beyond

"For non-defense programs, the process in years after 2013 is the same as in 2013 for entitlements but different for non-defense discretionary programs."

"Medicare payments to providers and health insurance plans will continue to be cut by 2 percent; in other words, for the entire nine-year period 2013-2021, providers and plans will be paid 98 cents on the dollar. But because Medicare costs are projected to rise from 2013 through 2021, the dollar amount saved by this 2 percent cut will increase, from $11.0 billion in 2013 to $11.4 billion in 2014 and ultimately to $17.8 billion in 2021."

"Because Medicare will take a growing share of the $54.7 billion annual non-defense cut (it will account for 21 percent of that amount in 2014 but 33 percent in 2021), other non-defense programs will absorb a declining share of the cut."

So by opening the Government now, we cut our own throats later. For those who thought the Sequester was old news, and not about to kick in again, it's going to stab those among us in the most need in the neck every single year. Now, all the Republicans have to do to take this home as a Victory is nothing. If they don't pass a Sequester removal law, then the cuts again happen automatically, and again Seniors suffer the most.

Back to the first article for the closing quote.

Surrender? Any more “victories” like this, and Democrats will end up paying annual tribute to Republican party coffers. If Democrats accept these terms, it will only encourage Republicans to hold the country hostage over and over again.

This is at best a Pyric Victory for everyone, yes the Republicans might lose in 2014, it's a long time from here to there, but those most in need suffer between now and then, and their pain will only diminish if we win in 2014, which is an iffy proposition, at best.

[Arkana]

1. Democrats grew a spine. No matter what else happened, they showed they can stand together.

And more importantly, Republicans have learned that they cannot simply wait Obama and Reid out any more.

[Savannahmann]

58. The best that can be said is we scored a tacitcal victory.

The strategic battle continues. Tactical means short term, strategic means long term, total victory for example. What we did was show the Republicans that they can't come at this with no long term plan. The next time they'll have the choir sheets out and be singing from the same hymnal.

Come January, the next phase of the Sequester kicks in, and there is no hope of stopping that. Another two percent off of Medicare and Medicaid. More cuts to programs that people really need. More cuts to services that people use. More suffering for those who already struggle just to survive.

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/10/republicans-sequestration-obamacare-98267.html

Notice the date, the 14th. Sequester was already off the table. Reid brought it up knowing it would be a deal breaker, and not wanting to be the one to shut down negotiations again, he withdrew it. That story focus's on the defense industry cuts, like I'm going to complain about those. But it makes the point, some things just aren't going to be discussed, even if they had momentum before the shut down, they don't now.

Now, President Obama is going to focus on Immigration. Would you like to know the odds of getting that through Congress? What can Obama do to force it now? The Republicans are not going to hand him another Victory, and instead they'll sit on it and start to discuss the looming budget deadline. This way they can keep kicking the can one square down the road and avoid other issues. If they are not defeated in 2014, then the rest of Obama's Presidency will be perpetual looming budget deadlines. No time for other business, the budget deadline is looming. Every year, we'll suffer cuts in programs that many users here desperately need. But that's fine, because we won. Immigration will go through 2016 with no action, but at least we won today.

That's the point I'm trying to make, is that we scored a tactical victory. The strategic outlook is not nearly so rosy. Unless President Obama or Harry Reid decides to hold the economy hostage, in which case we will get blamed for all of it in the shallow and inaccurate short term memories of the voting public.

[ProSense]

2. That commentary was written yesterday about the ransom note.

"So by opening the Government now, we cut our own throats later."

What the hell does that mean?

[Pretzel_Warrior]

7. She's making no sense and trying to generate clicks

[ProSense]

11. No, the piece was written yesterday, and that statement is the OP's. n/t

[Pretzel_Warrior]

16. I read Katrina's commentary. It is bullshit.

[closeupready]

17. You know how cats sometimes chase their own tails?

I sometimes think these myopic, Beltway commentators get caught up in their parochial memes about government and how it operates, almost like they are speaking their own language, Esperantu, or something.

So even though they are speaking gibberish word salads, it SOUNDS like maybe it means something, and everyone has to stop and figure out what they hell they mean.

Don't give them that importance. If they can't speak plain English, fuck em.

[robinlynne]

3. important read. k&r

I don't rely on voters remembering this a year from now.

[magical thyme]

14. if the teaparty tries shutting down the government and/or forcing default again,

it will happen next year ahead of the elections.

So if van Heuval is right, and they try it again and again, they will just keep reminding everybody closer and closer to the time when they can be voted out.

[robinlynne]

25. Mitch McConnell said today the GOp will do a better job in january. It may not be a shutdown, but

it will be bad in January. The Dems are saying right now how they are going to work together to address the (GOP) budget concerns.

[RobinA]

28. Yup...

"address the (GOP) budget concerns." Fancy way of saying "cave."

[HappyMe]

21. That's easily remedied by reminding them.

[PBass]

4. The Tea Party is severely weakened by this,

and the next set of negotiations will be different IMO.

[nolabels]

46. The Tea Party is fighting for it's continued funding and support from it's billionaire supporters

One thing everybody should know about cockroaches is that they will keep coming back no matter how pointy your boots

La Cucaracha (The Dancing Cockroach Video) by DARIA - YouTube:

[Pretzel_Warrior]

5. Leave it to the liberal gadflies to cry

The fact that GOP wouldn't behave rationally and got where Obama told them they NEEDED to get only after a 2 week shutdown and the verge of default has killed the party's brand and cohesiveness.

I totally disagree with Katrina's premise.

[leftynyc]

10. Same here

The perpetually unsatisfied will never give this President or the Democrats a break. Let them wallow in their negativity. I'm enjoying this day very much.

[RobertEarl]

26. Blame the left?

Yes, we are not satisfied. Too bad that makes you feel bad.

The left being dissatisfied is the only thing that really stands against the tea party, and here you are ankle biting the good folks. Thanks a lot. Now go hide.

[leftynyc]

30. Stop babbling

Who said I was blaming anyone and I'll say whatever I damn well please, skippy. I've been fighting teabagger types since you were in diapers.

[RobertEarl]

31. That's why they are winning?

Because people like you are their enemy? I am sure they are just quaking in their boots.

Oh, wait, you were just projecting... your negativity and your gadfliness?

When you decide to be a real honest Lefty, let me know, k?

[leftynyc]

32. Is that supposed to be English?

Spectacular fail. And such pride to go along with it. Impressively pathetic.

[RobertEarl]

38. You are projecting again

You need to stop that. It gives you moderates a bad name, along with enabling the teabaggers whose only opposition is the rel Left who are NOT fucking satisfied with the lack of progress. But then you are satisfied? Only a moderate would be, eh?

M. leftynyc, a satisfied poster on DU? How did that happen

[leftynyc]

41. Yawn

Now you're just boring me. I'm done with you.

[RobertEarl]

42. We, on the left

Have to crush the moderates. We have to make them ashamed to blame the left for wanting what is fair for all.

I'm not done. You will have to deal with us leftists who are not satisfied.

[robinlynne]

43. NO. Obama said we needed to get to next summer. We got to January. less than 3 months from now.

[Pretzel_Warrior]

44. Debt limit can now be stretched to summer

That is the critical piece.

[robinlynne]

49. Feb. 15th.

[Pretzel_Warrior]

50. Not really

[Chisox08]

51. Do you really think that the teahadist will act any differntly in January?

They showed that they are willing to drive us to the brink of an economic collapse, in order to get what they want. They still got sequester level spending and next time they will go for Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid as well as the ACA and deeper budget cuts.

It wasn't Obama that got the Republicons to the table to make a deal it was their owners, I mean donors, who forced them to make a deal. They know they can take the country hostage again and they will do it over and over until they get everything they want.

[Pretzel_Warrior]

52. If I was a betting man, I'd put $20 on that

Because GOP learned valuable lesson. Don't fuck with Obama. He will own you.

[Chisox08]

55. No they didn't. They will do the samething in January.

The only reason they made a deal is their owners, once again I mean donors, told them to make a deal because a default would be messing with their money.

[Pretzel_Warrior]

56. Watch and learn

[LordGlenconner]

6. ...

?w=600

[Arugula Latte]

9. Wha wha whaaaaaa.

[BeyondGeography]

8. Apart from about 30 points in favorability, she's right

[ProSense]

13. The OP is completely misleading. The piece has nothing to do with today's developments. n/t

[Pretzel_Warrior]

18. But her premise was built on assumption of GOP surrender

Of their untenable position. So her commentary is the same whether she wrote it yesterday or today, and it contains a lot of flawed reasoning.

[freshwest]

12. Agreed.

[Comrade Grumpy]

15. Do you guys really believe the GOP has been chastened and will play nice now?

[Pretzel_Warrior]

20. No. But they know now Obama and Reid aren't to be fucked with

So it will change their calculus. If all the house has on their resume is shutting down the government and narrowly avoiding default by next fall, they are fucked. They almost HAVE to work with Dems and compromise as a matter of self preservation. And yes, this will involve GOP telling tea party to go fuck themselves.

[HappyMe]

23. Exactly.

They painted themselves into a corner.

[tularetom]

19. No the next time they try to pull this shit they start out with the public pissed off at them

No more threatening to hold their breath until they turn blue, everybody is onto them. Even the cable TV pundits have sort of toned down the "both sides do it" bullshit.

Memories are short but this sorry episode won't be forgotten by February. And Obama has hopefully learned that he can't negotiate with crazy people.

And the best part of it is that the dumbass demographic is now furious at them for giving in.

[Savannahmann]

57. Yes, the demographic they need to turn out in the primaries

And the General Elections. The Republicans approached this too casually, they have two months to get their act together. Expect the talking points to be out of control spending.

[riderinthestorm]

22. I also believe the zealots like Cruz, Lee et al think this is Round One

and that they may have lost this round but they're prepared for the long fight.

Vanden Heuvel is correct that this is a Pyrrhic victory for everyone. BUT Obama finally found his steel balls. Since standing firm FINALLY resulted in making some progress against the Rethugs in general, I'm pretty sure he'll make damn sure he stands strong again the next time. I see this as a game changer and very, very encouraging.

Because its certain the next round is going to be even more vicious and Obama's going to need both his 11th dimensional chess maneuvers and those steel balls against the true zealot wing of the Republican party.

[jeff47]

24. My....how stupid.

First, Democrats have no way of undoing the sequester. It was this hard just to pass a CR. How hard do you think it would have been to pass the Senate's budget at the same time?

Second, the battle will continue. We want that to happen. Because it will remind voters about this shutdown over and over again. It will remind people that the Republicans love the sequester that is starving grandma. And those reminders get us a House and Senate where we can actually undo the damage you are complaining about.

Undoing the sequester at this time is just as much of a pipe dream as the Republicans undoing the ACA.

[nadinbrzezinski]

27. Yup, it is a manichean world view

[maddezmom]

29. Can you explain? What is manichean?

[phleshdef]

34. Just another pretentious term that people like to throw around to make them sound academic.

[maddezmom]

37. Google didn't bring up anything I could make any sense of....

Maybe it was supposed to be Manchurian?

On edit...did a bit more digging and found this:

USAGE:
"The most crucial feature of neoconservatism is its Manichean worldview, wherein the Earth is pitted in an urgent struggle between purely good and purely evil nations. As George W. Bush famously told then Sen. Joe Biden: 'I don't do nuance.'"
Jacob Bronsther; What Do Neocons Have to Do With Obama?; The Christian Science Monitor (Boston, Massachusetts); Sep 29, 2009.

http://wordsmith.org/words/manichean.html

[phleshdef]

39. I think the poster was implying that this isn't all black and white.

And that the idea that we are getting through this now doesn't mean everything is awesome.

A lot of people around here like to speak their own language to say the simplest things.

[maddezmom]

40. ...

[HappyMe]

35. Aren't they those huge

walrus/seal looking sea critters by Florida?

[Brigid]

48. Try this:

Especially the third paragraph.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manichean

[LondonReign2]

33. Addressing ongoing budget concerns should be quite easy

Democrats offer: raise taxes and increase social security payments, cur defense spending, oil and agri-business subsidies, increase outlays on renewable energy.

ARITHMATIC

[Lex]

36. Tea Party = Crazy and now a lot more of the American people know it. nt

[LanternWaste]

45. I simply ask myself, "what were their original objectives? Were the objectives met?" and reach a con

I simply ask myself, "What were their original objectives? Were those objectives met?" and reach a conclusion from that.

[BlueCheese]

47. It's a weird kind of victory.

We didn't really advance our agenda in any way, but we did stop the crazy faction of the GOP from advancing theirs.

If both sides had quietly agreed to a vanilla funding bill and a debt limit increase, it would have been considered routine business
and nobody would have been considered the winner. All the headlines would have been about the ACA, or the NSA, or Syria, or whatever. Instead we had this almighty drama and the outcome is exactly the same.

It is a political victory, in that the GOP took out a giant shotgun and fired it right into its foot, so there's that.

[Pretzel_Warrior]

53. Political victory begets legislative victory

For instance, under reported is how much allowing Bush tax cuts to expire has alleviated deficits.

[FedUpWithIt All]

54. Each time they pull this more and more people become annoyed.

If they try and kick this can down the road it will only infuriate more people.

That needed to happen.