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doc03

(35,340 posts)
Tue Oct 15, 2013, 11:10 PM Oct 2013

I keep hearing how this debt ceiling is so critical and the economy is going to melt down

if an agreement isn't made. Just why is it the stock market doesn't seem to reflect any such thing? My IRA is at an all time high as of now. I'm starting to think this is all just theater
so we don't realize the Democrats gave the Republicans the Ryan budget without a fight. I would think if this is all so important that the President would make some kind of Oval Office Address about it.

13 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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doc03

(35,340 posts)
4. The market always trades on the future, that should have been baked in
Tue Oct 15, 2013, 11:17 PM
Oct 2013

months ago if it is really a serious threat. If this is that serious looks like we are going to go through this same bs every couple months for the next 3 years

spooky3

(34,456 posts)
10. Not when investors cannot assess the threat clearly. In 2011
Tue Oct 15, 2013, 11:40 PM
Oct 2013

investors weren't able to anticipate how outrageous the baggers were, and there was a big drop in the summer AFTER it became more apparent. For the year stocks were basically flat.

 

Pretzel_Warrior

(8,361 posts)
3. Most of the world's institutional investors still believe GOP is
Tue Oct 15, 2013, 11:15 PM
Oct 2013

Sane and would not burn world economy over ideology. That belief will turn to panic if some deal isn't concluded tomorrow.

Incitatus

(5,317 posts)
12. This was mentioned on the news earlier.
Tue Oct 15, 2013, 11:52 PM
Oct 2013

A woman with Wallstreet contacts said they didn't believe congress would be so stupid as to allow a default. Maybe they are living in their world and the tea party politicians are living in theirs. I guess we will find out tomorrow.

 

blkmusclmachine

(16,149 posts)
5. "So we don't realize the Democrats gave the Republicans the Ryan budget without a fight.."
Tue Oct 15, 2013, 11:17 PM
Oct 2013
Kabuki. Theatre.

napi21

(45,806 posts)
6. I have no idea what you invested your $$ in, but the stock mkt.
Tue Oct 15, 2013, 11:20 PM
Oct 2013

dropped 300 pts. a few days ago, it dropped another 170 today, and if the US defaults, I wouldn't be surprised if it dropped between 1,000 and 3,000 pts.! Remember black Monday in Oct. 87 (I THINK IT WAS 87) when the mkt. fell almost by half? Some never even recovered from THAT ONE!

I hope your IRA stays safe, but I moved all of my 401k funds into cash about 1 1/2 weeks ago. I don't trust those fools in DC any farther than I could chase them, and I'm in a wheelchair!

doc03

(35,340 posts)
11. The Dow is only 3% off its record high. I just hold and
Tue Oct 15, 2013, 11:48 PM
Oct 2013

have done fairly well over the years. It has doubled since the 2009 bottom. The market always anticipates the future like the Bush recession the Dow started dropping a year before the financial meltdown. Strange but true the market even started dropping a month before the 911 attack.

 

Kelvin Mace

(17,469 posts)
8. Becuase they cannot fathom a deal not being made
Tue Oct 15, 2013, 11:27 PM
Oct 2013

they are whistling past the grave yard.

That means the implosion will be far, FAR more devastating when the deal doesn't come through and the "Last Sucker" fear kicks in (no one will want to be the "last sucker" left holding "worthless" government bonds).

I am guessing that without a deal, you will see the market fall to the point the "circuit breakers" kick in, where they literally shut down the market to stop the blood shed, which will just increase the panic selling the next day they open, and the next.

pnwmom

(108,978 posts)
9. The stock market doesn't believe the Rethugs will be that stupid
Tue Oct 15, 2013, 11:40 PM
Oct 2013

or Obama that firm.

And it's not like they have a safe place to put their money, if they sold their stocks. Treasury bills? US bank accounts? All backed by the full faith and credit of . . . . a country in the midst of a default?

 

Bigmack

(8,020 posts)
13. You're doing fine....
Tue Oct 15, 2013, 11:58 PM
Oct 2013

...for now. You're not worried.

But...

Talk to the IMF and foreign investors who hold our paper.

Tell the guys at the IMF..."Leaders from China, Japan, Saudi Arabia, Germany and Singapore have all pleaded for a speedy resolution -- saying that a default by the United States would have a profound effect on their economies. It's a risk that dominated last week's meeting of the International Monetary Fund in Washington, an event attended by nearly all central bankers and finance chiefs.
"I've just spent the last two days with representatives of about 188 countries around the world ... they are very anxious to see this crisis resolved, because they know it's going to impact their economy," IMF chief Christine Lagarde told CNN.

Hong Kong has already reduced the value of Treasuries used as security for financial trading.

And then there's China...the largest foreign holder of U.S. debt. China has been very specific.
Vice Finance Minister Zhu Guangyao said last week that a solution must be found quickly in order to "ensure the safety of Chinese investments" and provide stability for economies around the globe.
"We ask that the United States earnestly take steps to resolve in a timely way the political issues around the debt ceiling and prevent a debt default," he said. "This is the United States' responsibility."
Xinhua, the country's official news agency, went further, saying in a scathing op-ed that the "pernicious impasse" warrants a move to an "de-Americanized world." "The cyclical stagnation in Washington for a viable bipartisan solution over a federal budget and an approval for raising debt ceiling has again left many nations' tremendous dollar assets in jeopardy and the international community highly agonized," Xinhua said.

I don’t speak Chinese, but I know what he means by a “de-Americanized world”.

We need their investment.

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