"Tea Party's House Seats Might Not Be All That Safe"

[applegrove]

Tea Party's House Seats Might Not Be All That Safe

Bloomberg - Businessweek

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-10-14/tea-partys-house-seats-might-not-be-all-that-safe

"SNIP..........................

Conventional wisdom says that the Tea Party wing of the House can do more or less whatever it wants, because representatives are gerrymandered into safe districts. As Republican popularity has tanked in recent national polls since the shutdown started, that notion looks far less certain.

Princeton Professor Sam Wang found that gerrymandered districts may actually be less safe than those that aren’t politically altered. By analyzing data from Public Policy Polling, which provides not-quite-perfect results in 36 districts, Wang found that Republicans lost twice as much support over the shutdown in their gerrymandered districts than in red districts with boundaries that weren’t politically redrawn. “Isn’t that freaky?” Wang said when I spoke with him.

Wang hypothesizes that this is because in 2011 a dominant GOP redistricting tactic wasn’t to pack districts with as many of their own supporters as possible; instead, Republicans wanted to concentrate as many of Democrats into as few districts as feasible and then spread their own loyalists across many districts to eke out wins. He says the results of 2011 redistricting are like what happened in North Carolina in the 2012 election: Republicans won nine seats by an average of 14 percentage points; Democrats won just four seats by a wide average margin of 40 percentage points.

The rest of the GOP districts are largely filled with independents, who tend to amplify the national mood. “When they swing,” Wang says, “they swing really hard against you.” Now that the mood has turned negative on the GOP, these districts have turned down even more. Taking into account that the next House elections are more than a year away, Wang extrapolates that the disproportionate reaction to the shutdown puts “dozens more seats in play” in the 2014 election. It has, he estimates, turned the likelihood of Democrats taking over the House from 13 percent to as high as 50 percent. “If either party is paying attention to this information,” he adds, “I would presume that those gerrymandered states would be prime targets to carpet bomb with ads.”



...........................SNIP"

[ruffburr]

1. You Tease You-

In my dreams, I wish these people would see the light

[applegrove]

3. It does sound too good to be true. But it sounds true. They

would gerrymander in order to win the most number of seats. May do them in.

[Coyotl]

15. Too greedy to sustain their majority!

[NYC_SKP]

2. The irony is that Obama will save the economy despite their acts and thus improve their odds.

If only we could let just a smidgen of the economy fail in a way that would send a clear signal to their constituents.

But then again, that constituency isn't very bright.

[KaryninMiami]

4. I'm good with that- could use some happy news tonight

No idea if it's true but how nice it would be if this really did manifest and 2014 is a sea of blue. Would be wonderful and amazing. Sigh.

[nyquil_man]

5. Gerrymandering is a short-term fix.

That's why it has to be done over and over again.

The electorate is in a constant state of flux.

[Incitatus]

9. And when a lot of people start paying more attention to what is going on.

Like now, that doesn't end well for Republicans, higher voter turnout that is.

[Hekate]

6. Fascinating. 5th Rec.

Bwa-ha-haa

[blkmusclmachine]

7. Wait until 6 weeks after not receiving their SS checks.

They've only got themselves to blame. Unfortunately, they'll take us down, too.

[LonePirate]

8. This is wishful thinking. We are still 12.5 months away from the next election.

The recent shutdown and default shenanigans will be a distant memory next year and you can bet the Repubs in the House will not try any of this in October 2014.

[applegrove]

10. But they may try it again in January or February.

[calimary]

11. Yeah, but we can't predict they won't still be posturing all over Christendom and then some

about this by then. Some of these assholes just don't learn. And some of them are too damned arrogant to take this warning seriously. After all, THEIR research told them they were in good shape on this one. THEIR research also guaranteed that wrongney was gonna be the next President.

That said, it's never good to count chickens before they turn into chickenhawks.

[Volaris]

14. All true. But if they are nuts enough to actually try and impeach the President,

that's a thing that will take 4-6 months of news cycles to complete, and then look where we are...May/June of next year. Yes, most people have a pretty short political memory, but not that short for something of that magnitude.

Just min/maxing the way it could play out here...

[Warren DeMontague]

16. Sort of like how the '95-'96 shutdown was a "distant memory" by the time

Bill Clinton beat Bob Dole, right?

[Dark n Stormy Knight]

19. So, the Democrats need to start reminding them now and keep it in their faces with billboards and tv

and digital media ads.

[zentrum]

12. This isn't what Nate Silver is saying

Don't normally read the National review but I googled Nate+elections 2014 and got this:

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/361043/nate-silver-says-republicans-will-be-okay-patrick-brennan

Is it to be believed? It says that he says the Republicans are not in trouble.

[BainsBane]

17. I wouldn't take the National Review's word for what Silver says

[mountain grammy]

13. Usually they lurk around in the shadows, passing stupid bills that our corporate media

pretty much ignores. If their idiocy was on display daily on the news, we'd get somewhere, but the corps stay silent. Now, all of a sudden, this is big news. The big bright light of corporate media is shining on the fools and Republicans are saying huh? Whose that idiot? Shut down the government? Default? What about my retirement investments and the value of my house that was just coming back? What about my social security check or my medicare?
Now do you get it? Both parties are not the same.

[Left Coast2020]

18. This dude was on MSNBC the other day and I posted similar words quoting Wang.

"They swing really hard."

I hope this dude is right. And as I posted the other day, in theory, instead of picking up the 17-18 we need to get the House back, it could wind up 20-25 seats. Maybe 30.

Just hope that people show up at the polls. Its a mid term. Usually low turnout. Hope thats not the case next year.

Our work is before us.

[kelliekat44]

20. The only way for them to be really "safe" is to be unchallenged. nt

[MarchemintotheSea]

21. Most Americans have a very short memory and about the only places one will see Teahadi

voted out will be in the more sane parts of the country that that are traditional democratic strongholds, New England and the West Coast. The red states in the South and Mid West will double down on the crazy like they always do and I would not be surprised to see the TeaHadi increase in numbers. Always remember that a states congressional representatives are a direct reflection of it's voters.

[Art_from_Ark]

22. They imagine themselves like this:

But they are actually like the guy with the big hat:

[Cha]

23. So true.. nice visuals, Art.

[Cha]

24. I remember Sam Wang from

the 2012 election along with Nate Silver. He was right up there in accuracy. When I see the Sam Wang's name.. I pay attention.

thanks applegrove~

[Berlum]

25. Free clue to gerrymandered TeaBaggers (R): Americans dislike being shit upon

...as you will eventually learn to your eternal dismay.

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

26. This is a common gerrymandering tactic

Overload (or segregate, if you will) one or two districts with the opposition's voters, so that the remaining districts in the region are yours. Not by large margins, mind you, because you're spreading your supporters among 4 or 5 districts.

That works as long as the moderates and swing voters go your way. If they're so disgusted with your representation (and if the opposition bring forth an attractive candidate), your gerrymandering efforts will have gone for naught.