Republicans are going to win the shutdown on policy. Guaranteed.

[geek tragedy]

What Democrats are giving up/likely to give up:

1. Use Republicans' spending levels on budget level for c.r.

2. Repeal Obamacare medical device tax

3. Unduly burdensome income verification for Obamacare subsidies

What Republicans are going to give up:

Not a goddamn thing.

The reason they do this is that it always, always, always works. It worked again.

[IdaBriggs]

1. Did I miss something? Is this fortune telling or did something happen?

Please share - I thought I was paying attention...?

[LaydeeBug]

2. Guaranteed? Really? Do you have a source for this?

because that's a pretty big statement to 'guarantee' from thin air.

[geek tragedy]

13. It will be Collins plan, more or less, that comes out of the Senate.nt

[LaydeeBug]

19. Again. Any source? Link? That's a big statement to make. nt

[morningfog]

3. Dems are ALWAYS on the defensive. Such a weak position to govern from.

[intaglio]

4. Will you publish an extended apology if any of this is wrong?

No, of course not; you will just find another way to denigrate the President

[lamp_shade]

5. Wish List?

[vi5]

6. And don't forget

That the President and Reid and Pelosi and others on our side will declare it a victory and any of us who don't agree will be accused of wanting a Cruz/Paul presidency.

[Bluenorthwest]

7. Is this a prediction or a pitch of your desired outcomes?

What's your basis for this agenda of yours?

[Atman]

8. Thank for your concern. Straight to the circular file.

While the Dem's track record has not been good, their hand has never been this strong. You post this "concern" just as every poll and most pundits are saying just the opposite, to the point of Democrats even pushing back, making their own demands.

So why post this crapola now? What's your point? Just hoping to kill the momentum?

[yuiyoshida]

9. Sorry, I am not buying this..

Not. AT. All.

[Broward]

10. Any concession whatsoever is a loss.

[pinboy3niner]

11. It's risky to put all your faith in crystal balls

It's kind of like that 'glass houses' thing...

[leftstreet]

12. Thanks for sharing

[socialist_n_TN]

14. Ultimately, I think that you are correct.........

But what will happen is that there will be a "temporary" agreement to reopen the government and raise the debt limit for a few weeks while a new budget is "negotiated" by the "moderates" in both parties. IOW, the neo-liberal Dems and Reps. The "temporary" agreement will use Republican spending levels for the CR. It will "delay" the medical device tax and the subsidies decision until the real "negotiations" take place.

Then there will be a "Sequester II" negotiated which will allow the Austerians to cut spending even further than the original sequester on everything, EXCEPT the DoD WITHOUT TAKING A VOTE ON IT. We will be assured that this will be such a "Doomsday" scenario that it will NEVER come to pass because it would be so draconian. Then, a few weeks previous to it kicking in, there will be budget proposals floated that lock in Sequester I funding for domestic programs and it will be sold as the "compromise" position and the BEST case scenario will be locking in the current sequester levels forever. Worst case will be a "compromise" somewhere BETWEEN the current sequester and Sequester II.

If I'm wrong I'll come back and say so. But I really doubt that I'm wrong on this. It's the pattern that has developed around this issue.

[Laelth]

15. Not this time.

It's just not cool to muck with the full faith and credit of the United States.

-Laelth

[geek tragedy]

17. We'll see very shortly. But, when they say Democrats

will allow them to 'save face' that means paying them a small policy ransom instead of a big one.

[Laelth]

18. No doubt the Republicans will get some little something.

But right now, we have them over a barrel, and they know it. They will give us a lot (and I mean much more than just raising the debt ceiling), and we'll give them a little something to save face. That's how I see this playing out.

Of course, I could be wrong. We'll see.



-Laelth

[rock]

16. Perhaps, just perhaps the Big O is planning a slap in the face

and will veto any bill that does not give him what he has been asking for all along?