Is Obama Catalyzing the end of Movement Conservatism?

[M.G.]

I've sometimes felt that Obama's presidency is catalyzing the eventual demise of movement conservatism, though the death-knell of the loony right as a powerful national force will probably take between 8-20 more years to play out.

His simple presence in the White House has galvanized the right, finally bringing all their craziness to the fore. (Itself ironic in that he's a fairly moderate and accommodating Democrat.) Now at last unbiased observers are starting to understand today's conservatives are the America-hating extremists that they, with classic projection, imagine Obama to be. In the short run ideological fanaticism may have strengthened the GOP, but in the long run I think it will inhibit their ability to make the changes needed to appeal to America's changing demographics. In fact, I suspect the isolated conservative media bubble and gerrymandered districts, so integral to the GOP's Congressional strength, will actually become a long-term weakness, ultimately destroying their ability to win majorities (though again, that will probably take a few more years to play out.)

Overly optimistic? Plausible?

[Barack_America]

1. Nah. He's just inviting them to "proceed".

They're doing a mighty fine job of tanking their party (and our country, unfortunately) all by themselves.

[hrmjustin]

2. Unfortunately conservatives like roaches will always be with us.

[1000words]

3. lol ... not very diplomatic but accurate, nonetheless.

I was thinking zombies.

[hrmjustin]

6. Zombies are a good way to describe them.

[M.G.]

4. They won't die...

They'll be around in some form, sure, but at some point the GOP is going to have to either change its views to accommodate changing demographics, split in two, or become the 21st Century Whigs.

We'll never not have a right, but the kind of right we have can, and certainly has, changed with time.

[hrmjustin]

5. They will change when they have lost enough elections and they are sick of loosing.

Don't count on it soon.

[M.G.]

7. I give it 1-2 decades

I give it one to two decades before demographics force some kind of real shift...

[hrmjustin]

8. Personally I think they know they will not win in 2016 because Hillary is too strong. I think they

will go with someone like Rand Paul instead of someone like Christie. They want a movement conservative this time not an establishment guy. They will loose and then they will have to make hard choices. Whether those choices are good for their party and the nation we will have to see.

Redistricting needs to e changed in the nation. The fact that congresspeople are afraid of a primary more then a general is not good for this nation.

[M.G.]

9. Hopefully....

Hopefully Democrats will
Have more state legislatures in 2020 and will be able to do some redistricting.

If not, expect things to proceed status quo for quite a while, perhaps even until 2030, by which time I would imagine demographics will strongly shift America towards political moderation.

[hrmjustin]

10. The only way to really change redistricting is to get referendums on the ballots to

get nonpartisan judges to do it.

[M.G.]

15. Redistricting

This might be a bit off-topic, but honestly, having redistricting turned into a political spoils system has got to be the dumbest electioneering idea ever! It should be a non-partisan process, absolutely.

[hrmjustin]

16. BTW welcome to DU.

[M.G.]

22. You are very welcome!

[hrmjustin]

23. Glad to have you aboard.

[jeff47]

30. No, they won't.

The bubble they have created means they can't change.

Republicans who try to move the party left are denounced by Limbaugh and the rest of the bubble. Losses are blamed on insufficient purity to the cause. Gerrymandered districts mean the House Republicans have more to fear from the right than from the left.

Republicans can not change. Any attempt to do so is destroyed by the bubble.

What's gonna happen? My prediction is the corporate right abandons the GOP and drags the Democratic party right. Which will eventually result in a "new" party on the left (be it brand new, or one of the existing minor parties). The two parties will settle around where they were in the 1950s/1960s. But this whole thing will take decades to play out.

[M.G.]

31. Interesting Scenario

That's an interesting scenario and certainly possible. I think the GOP could change, but they'd have to get repeatedly thrashed in all three houses for it to happen (meaning not until the 2020's or 30's, if it all.)

It's also possible the Tea Party will split into a third party, the moderates simply leave, or that the GOP changes itself in slow, incremental, barely perceptible steps over the next two decades.

[nadinbrzezinski]

17. look up No Labels

then think GOP and Whigs.

[JHB]

11. I would guess another decade or two, but...

...the obvious loss of control over their looney base, their believing their own advertising, and their reckless brinkmanship to use the debt ceiling as a tool to get their pet projects has the potential to change the actions of some key elements. That allows things to change unexpectedly and rapidly.

I'm mindful that in 1988, nobody was predicting that the Berlin Wall would fall within a year, and that the Soviet Union would be dissolved within five.

Change can happen faster than you think. (Just look at acceptance of gay marriage.)

[M.G.]

18. Lets hope!

[JHB]

20. Welcome to DU!

[M.G.]

21. You are welcome! Great to be here.

[Lil Missy]

12. Oooooh, I like that. Giving credit to Obama for their demise would really

chap their asses!

[M.G.]

24. Hehehe

Sure would!


A bit off-topic, but just the look I get from telling some people that I think Obama has been, overall, a very good President can make me smile.

[Jamaal510]

13. Thanks a lot, Obama.

Because you decided to run for president and won twice, we no longer have a sane Republican party. Why do you hate the GOP so much? For goodness sakes, it was under a Republican president (in the Dinosaur Ages) when slaves were freed!

[M.G.]

25. That's right! It's all Obama's fault...

It's all Obama's fault! If he had only been Joe Lieberman, none of this would have happened.

[Southside]

14. I am with you

More and more Tea Party is becoming a dirty word, even an insult. Major GOP funders are cutting off donations because of the Tea Party. http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/10/03/gop-donors-revolt-against-republican-led-government-shutdown.html

As I was lurking I read that Rush Limbaugh brought it up on his show about the funders withholding checks because of the Tea Party activities. They are extreme in wanting or not caring if the government is shutdown. Many of them take comfort when they scare the rest of us. Our outrage towards them is carried as a badge of honor. They withdraw support from conservatives like Mitch McConnell and leave him dangling as they introduce their candidates into republican primaries. They despise even mild contradiction. Their intolerance for diverse opinion is enough to drive everyone left of conservatives like McConnell away. They despise Gov Christie who is popular with the center. They stayed home rather than vote for a GOP Massachusetts Mormon, who inspired ObamaCare.

President Obama exposed them and we owe him a debt of gratitude, as does Boehner and McConnell. Still, they will always worry me because they have money, numbers and unwaivering ideals. They are like Kamikaze pilots.

[M.G.]

19. Kamikaze?

Honestly, in 80 or 100 or 120 years I could envision the descendants of today's red state conservatives functioning in enclaves very much like bona fide kamikaze militants, or perhaps militant colonial enclaves.

[xfundy]

26. There may very well be a second civil war.

If red states want to leave the union, I'd be glad to let them. They take much more than they give, and what they give is poisoned.

Sure, a lot of folks on scooters have guns. So what? We have brains and creativity on our side.

[M.G.]

27. Sympathy for the Red States

A bit off-topic, but speaking now as a Yankee who has spent a fair amount of time in rural South Carolina, I find the Deep South to be a lovely place in many ways.

That said, it's hard not to shake the feeling that the red states could do with some serious cultural modernizing, though I hope a second attempt at secession is unnecessary. (And shifting demographics may bring about unexpected modernizing- look how Virginia has become a purple state.)

[Benton D Struckcheon]

28. Exactly what he's doing.

By now the Tea Party is thoroughly despised. They're already done.

[M.G.]

29. Not quite done, but certainly unpopular...

I'm hoping tea partiers end up being like hippies who (I'm told) were widely hated by the 1970's and often ended up being portrayed as stock TV 'bad guys.'