Krugman: likliest resolution—Obama declares himself not bound by debt ceiling

[cthulu2016]

I agree that there is a decent chance Republicans will not be swayed by sanity, and that a unilateral executive act may be required. As to whether that would be "my bet" (meaning the likeliest), I am not sure. When there are many possibilities, ikliest means most likely of the set of possibilitites, not nessecarily "likely" meaning more than 50% chance. The likliest single outcome may still be only a 25% chance. (Like a horse race where the favorite is still a 2:1 underdog versus the field.)

This is edited to comply with the four paragraph rule. Reading the whole post (at link) is recommended.

...In other words, GOP leaders fundamentally misjudged the situation (and Obama’s incentives). And now they have backed themselves into a position where they don’t know how to back down — they have to extract concessions or they’ll have been “disrespected,” in a situation where Obama simply can’t make any concessions without destroying his own credibility and betraying the fundamental norms of governance.

So what does the endgame look like? As the date approaches, market will start to freak out. You can already see a faint hint of freakout coming, as interest rates on 4-week Treasury bills — which may not be repaid on their due date — have moved up above 6-month...

...The assumption has been that Republicans will finally be moved to act by the market freakout. But given their behavior so far, why would you believe this? I can easily see Ted Cruz making a speech declaring that the freakout is all Obama’s fault, and that what the markets really fear is socialism or something — and the base believing it.

My bet now is that we actually do go over the line for a day or two. And what ends the immediate crisis is not Republican action but a decision by Obama to declare himself not bound by the debt ceiling. He can’t even hint at this possibility until the thing actually happens, because he has to keep the focus on the Republicans, and he has to make them demonstrate their utter irresponsibility before he can take any extraordinary action....

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/10/03/aggressive-blunderers/

[gopiscrap]

1. Yup, I am afraid it is going to end that way also

and then the repukes will want to impeach him, wasting a shitload of money and time.

[Chan790]

2. That has its upsides.

The last time the GOP went impeachment-crazy...they lost (the impeachment) then they lost (control of Congress) while they individually lost. (my recollection is that the House reps to the Senate on the impeachment basically almost all got tossed in the next election.)

I don't think it's a waste of time...I also think Congress would be better if someone went skeleton-hunting in Ted Cruz' closet.

[gopiscrap]

3. I sort of agree with you except for the needless trama and national gridlock that goes with it.

I would love to have Cruz investigated.

[truebluegreen]

7. We have national gridlock already.

Nothing will fix that until the crazies are outvoted or voted out.

And whereas I'd love to see Cruz investigated, I don't know what the charge/issue would be; without a clear one, it would be overreach. Far better to let him continue to make himself the Most Hated Man in Washington.

[gopiscrap]

9. yeah that's true

[NewsCenter28]

13. No-impeacment 1998 was a resounding success for Republicans

and the beginning of a 10-year nightmare until President Obama was elected. Impeachment 1998-99 energised the GOP like you've never seen and gave George W. Bush his most prolific 2000 line "I'll restore honor and dignity to the oval office." Indeed, the only reason that George W. Bush was close in 2000 was because of the public revulsion at WJC.

Remember Shrub going around the country in 2000? His lunatic crowds went wild when he said something like "I'll put my hand on the bible and restore honor and dignity to the oval office" bla bla bla.

For some reason, the revulsion didn't strike at WJC but boomeranged in a massive way against Vice President Gore.

There is no way that Vice President Gore loses election 2000 if there is no Lewinsky Scandal/Starr Investigation/Impeachment. There is simply no way he loses that election in a time of unprecedented peace and prosperity running against a chimp absent that.

[Blue Meany]

4. OR he mints a few trillion dollar coins and deposits them to pay our bills n/t

[DirkGently]

5. The WH seems to be saying otherwise.

President Barack Obama has neither the legal authority nor the practical ability to bypass Congress and extend the nation’s borrowing limit, and attempting such a step might trigger turmoil in the markets, two top White House advisers said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-01/white-house-rejects-14th-amendment-to-raise-debt-ceiling.html

However it is best achieved though, the debt ceiling "issue" must go away. It's clear the 14th Amendment does not permit fooling around with it in this way, for the reasons that have become so obvious.

[2naSalit]

6. He could

declare an economic national emergency after they cross the line on the debt ceiling and then enact a whole slew of EOs to change a whole bunch of BS they have put into place. Sure these clowns may try impeachment (one of their last ditch desperate ploys at this point) but I don't think it would get far and they would pay a triple indemnity for it.

Just a thought.

[roamer65]

8. The Federal Reserve can open the discount window to the government.

The government has plenty of collateral to borrow against and later bonds can be sold to repay the loans.

The Fed allowed AIG to access the window in 2008, so why not the govt?

[Uncle Joe]

10. I agree with Krugman's general premise but I also believe Cruz has lost some measure of credibility

with Republicans in the House and Republicans in general, at least those with some modicum of common sense and who feel betrayed by his actions.

From a thread by DonViejo.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251327550

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) took heat from his Republican colleagues Wednesday in a closed-door meeting to discuss the government shutdown, Politico reported.

At the meeting that was hosted by the Senate’s conservative Steering Committee, according to the report, one GOP senator after another pressed Cruz to offer a proposal to end the shutdown. The junior senator from Texas reportedly had no solution nor could he explain how he would defund the Affordable Care Act – an effort led by Cruz and Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT) that served as the impetus for the current shutdown.

At one point in the meeting, Republicans pressed Cruz to tell them what he would have done had the party united behind his call to filibuster a House-passed continuing resolution to keep the defunding hopes alives. Only 19 Republicans backed Cruz's attempt to block the bill.

“He kept trying to change the subject because he never could answer the question,” an unnamed senator told Politico. “It’s pretty evident it’s never been about a strategy – it’s been about him. That’s unfortunate. I think he’s done our country a major disservice. I think he’s done Republicans a major disservice."

Thanks for the thread, cthulu.

[Warren DeMontague]

11. That will be the blowjob they've been waiting for, of course.

One does not need to be Nostradamus to see that the Calendar out to Jan. 2017 will be filled with "impeachment hearings"

[Volaris]

12. If these loons actually go through the debt ceiling, force his hand to a solution,

and then try to impeach him for it? Na-a. they will get to play that game ONLY until the end of next year. After that, Democrats will control the House (after the LANDSLIDE they win in November).