So what do you think happens next to the Republican party?

[jeff47]

The current iteration of the Republican party was formed when Reagan brought together an alliance between Economic Conservatives and Religious Conservatives. Back in his day, the Economic side stomped all over the Religious side in terms of policy, but the Religious were given the occasional bone to keep them in the coalition.

Over the years, the power dynamic in the Republican party shifted. Sure, they still passed tax cuts, but the reason slowly shifted from "good for the economy" to "God grants money to these noble businesspeople". All through the Republican platform, the party has moved further and further to the Religious Right, and the Economic Conservatives have been driven out.

This has started to open a fracture in the party. "Moderates", who are the Economic Conservatives, are fleeing. That's greatly reducing the power of the party. They can still hold on in "Red" districts, but it's extremely hard for them to win nationally. Or even in many statewide races.

So what do you think happens next for the Republican and Democratic parties? And yes, prediction is hard. Especially about the future.

My personal prediction: The coalition that is the current Republican party falls apart. The Economic Conservatives aren't getting what they want. Heck, they're losing ground - this shutdown is going to cost big business a large pile of money. So big money is going to continue their drift away from the coalition.

The problem is the Religious Right isn't going to let go of the party. The Bachmans and the Palins are running the show now, and they are insane enough to believe that people like their ideas.

So within the next 5 years or so, the Republican party effectively splits in half. The remaining "Republican party" are the Religious Conservatives. They form a shrinking portion of the electorate and cease to be effective outside the South and a few Midwestern states. This sounds great, right?

Well, here comes the bad part. Those Economic Conservatives aren't going to just sit around whining. They need a political party. And there's this Democratic party who's right end looks very, very nice to them. As a result, money and electoral support drag the Democratic party over to about where the Republican party was in Nixon's time - far more liberal than today's Republican party, but more right-wing than the current Democratic party.

That's not going to sit well with many of us. Which I think leads to the next fracture: In about 15 years, the Democratic party will split. The Economic conservatives will wrest control from the liberals. Those liberals will eventually coalesce into some party, be it a new party or take over an existing minor party.

Result? A whole lot of chaos for the next 20-ish years. The Republican party goes the way of the Whigs. And the two major parties end up in about the same left-right positions as they were in the 1950's or 60's.

[Katashi_itto]

1. This is all dependent upon the Dems not caving in anyway.

If they Do. Repukes will get another President in office, through voter supresssion and money.

[jeff47]

2. I really don't think they'd be able to.

Assuming we don't have a Democratic nominee who's utterly terrible at running a national campaign (such as Gore or Clinton 2008), I don't see how they manage to pull off a majority of electoral votes.

Heck, only 30% of eligible Latinos in Texas voted in 2012 and there's a lot of effort underway to fix that. If those efforts are effective, and it's likely they will be, that puts Texas into play in 2016. If Republicans have to fight for Texas in 2016, they're in deep shit.

[Katashi_itto]

4. I would agree, except the voter supression comes into play

[jeff47]

6. Which is where the DoJ's lawsuit comes into play.

Obviously there's no guarantees, but it's also not a sure thing for the Republicans.

[Eleanors38]

11. If the Democratic Party has the juice, voter supression won't work.

The GOPers have gone far right. Watched this for 50 years; no surprise. The question is what will become of the Democratic Party. THIS is within our power.

[Katashi_itto]

12. Like how the Voter's Rights act was gutted by SCOTUS?

What I am saying is if we don't crush the Republican Party now. We don't have a chance in the future.

[Eleanors38]

14. You do the "crushing" with a strong party with strong policies...

There is no other way. While I'd like to accomplish this quickly, the GOPers took at least 30 years to turn the tide to the far right. The Democrats should have taken a lesson.

We might be able to do it quicker given the economic conditions and the increasing authoritarian threat by the GOP, and the acquiescence to authoritarian measures by some in Democratic Party elites, but there is little alternative: The far right has an iron lock on many state governments, the U.S. House, and the SCOTUS: For now, there is NO INSTITUTION with which to crush anything.

We prove ourselves by getting folks registered as required, and defeating the GOPers with those voters. No mommy or daddy in power some where is going to referee this game.

[roamer65]

3. Probably end up with three major parties like Canada.

The Cons, the Liberals and the NDP.

If I were Canadian I would alternate between the NDP and the Liberals depending on who would be PM.

Our political system was originally designed for multi-party democracy. The House could handle it just fine and coalitions would become common.

[Cleita]

5. You really want to Know?

Oh there will be another conservative but not crazy party known as Republicans. The present leadership, founders and VIP members will be gone and replaced by saner legislators who belong to a different club. Those deposed though will retire and walk away with their loot. They will meet though with other exiles in places like the Bohemian grove to groom a new generation of crazies and plot their return to power. Wait and see.

[Agnosticsherbet]

7. I think they will lose some Congressional seats in 2014.

It is possible their control of the redistricting process due to the 2010 election will allow them to retain control of the House. It is too soon to know. I hope for a wave election that turns over the House due to righteous indignation by citizens.

Democrats have more seats up for election in the Senate. I think Republicans have sufficiently poisoned the well that they will not gain the Senate. They may pick up a seat or two in Right Wing States.

So, I expect no real change and about 45 more attempts to end Obamacare, no matter how successful the Affordable Care Act proves to be.

If there is a wave, I suspect the surviving Teaparty folk will defect and set up their own party because Republicans weren't right wing enough. Over several election cycles they will be reabsorbed on the right, much like the old Grange Party in the late 1800's

If the Republican Party disintegrates like the Whigs did before the Civil War, I think the Democratic Party will settle happily at center right and become the party of big business. (Only a little right of where they are now. I disagree with where you think they are. They will remain socially liberal but fiscally conservative.) Libertarians will adopt the disaffected big business Republicans that can not swallow being democrats. They will resemble closely the Republican Party before WWII, isolationist, right wing, and open for business, but they won't have any power.

Roosevelt adopted a lot of socialist ideas in his New Deal and Social Security and saved (if you want to call it that) free market Adam Smith style capitalism that dominated our economy from the 40's to the early 70's. Once Truman allowed black people into the Democratic Party in 1948, it became increasingly liberal through the end of Johnson's administration. Jimmy Carter (fiscal conservative social liberal) moved right from Johnson, and Clinton (fiscal conservative social liberal third way) moved right form Carter. Obama has moved a bit right (Afghanistan, War on Terror, the Republicans Health Care proposal from 1994) but has successfully then pulled back with a leftward shift (end of don't ask don't tell, and marriage equality successes). A successful ACA will continue pulling the country left as it is improved in future administrations.

Unless the left decides to create a truly leftward party, we will continue to be the unappreciated stepchild of the Democratic Party for the foreseeable future. We could try to make a go of the Greens, but the left remains too diffuse and leaderless though I think that a majority of Americans could be convinced to get over their decades long fear of the left if it was well lead.

[B Calm]

8. They grab their guns and shoot each other?

[Eleanors38]

15. Well, that will leave a lot of armed liberals left.

[randome]

9. I think they will cave on shutting down the government.

[hr][font color="blue"][center]You should never stop having childhood dreams.[/center][/font][hr]

[rurallib]

10. Big money owns the Republicans

at some point the crazy and the religious will get tired of waiting for crumbs and will leave.
Big money is all that is keeping them together today

[Motown_Johnny]

13. My Prediction: Party splits by 2018 and the Teabagger Party wins gerrymandered districts.

Republicans are forced into a "center" position (relatively speaking) and some blue dogs jump ship and join them.