McClatchy: U.N. calculations of poison rockets’ paths implicate Syrian guard unit

[Triana]

BERLIN — A U.N. report detailing the scientific evidence behind the Aug. 21 chemical weapons attack in Syria carefully avoided laying blame for the incident. But the report’s details, particularly its calculations of the trajectories of the rockets that delivered poison gas to two Damascus suburbs, point directly at President Bashar Assad’s regime, experts concluded Tuesday after a day spent studying the U.N. findings.

Until this week, the public case against the Syrian government was based on trust in American, British and French assessments that were based largely on logic and conjecture but provided little detail about where information had come from. But the U.N. report, released Monday in New York, was filled with details gathered by inspectors from the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons and was written with care so as to provide evidence without taking sides.

Specialists, however, said the report provided undeniable evidence that the rockets were launched from points outside the control of Syrian rebel fighters.

“If the U.N. inspectors correctly calculated the trajectories, it certainly seems to indicate that the chemically armed rockets were fired from government-controlled land,” said Peter Bouckaert, Human Rights Watch emergencies director and weapons expert. “It’s clear and convincing evidence.”

THE REST:

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2013/09/17/202429/un-calculations-of-poison-rockets.html#.Ujj7o2SDTx4

[Zynx]

1. At this point one's got to be strident in denial of facts and logic to believe Assad didn't do it.

The evidence is pretty plain:

1. This was the result of a major deployment of rocket artillery. That cannot be denied.
2. Whoever did this had access to a large amount of Sarin gas. That cannot be denied.
3. This hit only in rebel controlled areas. That cannot be denied.
4. The UN report indicates, thanks to the wonders of understanding physics, the likely trajectory of the rockets. The flew to the east and southeast, meaning coming from the west. Areas to the west are controlled by the government. That cannot be denied.

On point one, the rebels don't have large scale rocket artillery. On point two, they don't have large amounts of Sarin, if any. They certainly don't have access to these sorts of amounts. On point three, this isn't conclusive proof to be sure, but it looks pretty damning. Point four, which deserves quite a lot of attention, is the result of an impartial investigation. There is no way the rebels could have fired from the positions necessary. They would have had to somehow bring a large amount of rocket artillery into government controlled areas and launch the attack and leave before the Syrian government forces knew what was happening. I'm sorry, no. That didn't happen.

You have to have some WILD theories to believe this wasn't Assad.

[Triana]

2. The calculated rocket trajectories are the clincher for me

It's pretty solid evidence that Assad was behind this.

[Zynx]

3. For me the combination of capabilities + trajectories + location of attacks = guilty.

It's a very heavy amount of evidence.

It's possible that maybe one of his generals did this without his permission. His officers seem to be two-bit thugs. However, that only makes his case for remaining in power that much weaker. If he's not in control of his military, what right does he have to stay?

[karynnj]

5. Add the regime then shelled the areas hit for four days!

This is how they treated their own people. I can think of many normal responses, shelling the area where hundreds had just been killed is not one of them.

[Uncle Joe]

4. Is that the same U.N. report which said the evidence had been moved and tampered with?

Thanks for the thread, Triana.

[geek tragedy]

6. The UN report did not say that, it's Assadapologists

who are spreading that false rumor.

[Junkdrawer]

7. Here are the report disclaimers in question:

Limitations:
The time necessary to conduct a detailed survey of both locations as well as take samples was
very limited. The sites have been well traveled by other individuals both before and during
the investigation. Fragments and other possible evidence have clearly been handled/moved
prior to the arrival of the investigation team.

And:

Limitations:
As with other sites, the locations have been well traveled by other individuals prior to the
arrival of the Mission. Time spent on the sites was well used but limited.
During the time spent at these locations, individuals arrived carrying other suspected
munitions indicating that such potential evidence is being moved and possibly manipulated.

[geek tragedy]

12. yes, the standard "uncontrolled scene" disclaimer one would expect of evidence collected in a war

zone where the site is being bombed.

They do not say "this evidence we relied upon was manipulated" nor do they say "just go ahead and ignore our findings" as a certain crowd here and in Moscow would like to do.

[Uncle Joe]

8. Who is spreading false rumor, you or the U.N. report? Here is the link to the U.N. Report

http://www.un.org/disarmament/content/slideshow/Secretary_General_Report_of_CW_Investigation.pdf

For some reason I can't copy it, scroll down to page 18 under the heading "Limitations"

[ProSense]

9. OK, now read the rest of the report and look at the pictures too.

I mean, a limitation is not a rejection of the evidence presented, and it doesn't suggest that the evidence points to an entity other than the Assad regime.

[Uncle Joe]

10. They also don't assign blame, there is no reason as to why the rebels haven't captured

or obtained by other means rockets such as on the two I believe which were used in the attack.

They have already overrun cities, airfields and large parts of Syria.

Furthermore why would Assad invite the U.N. inspection teams in to Syria for prior attacks which he blames on the rebels only to launch his on chemical weapon attack within days of the U.N. arriving?

[ProSense]

11. Maybe

"Furthermore why would Assad invite the U.N. inspection teams in to Syria for prior attacks which he blames on the rebels only to launch his on chemical weapon attack within days of the U.N. arriving?"

...desperation? All this amounts to is casting doubt without any evidence to the contrary, trying to absolve Assad based on a feeling.

Assad admitted to bombing area after chemical attack took place.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10023637203

[Uncle Joe]

13. You take your pick, Assad is an asshole and I totally agree, your other choice is Al Qaida

supported rebels.

The question becomes who had greater motivation to risk the U.S. and possibly Russia entering in to the fray, Assad or the Al Qaida types?

Human Rights Watch only speaks to "documented" cases of who possess what in regards to weapons and weapon systems, during a civil war especially in an autocratic nation such as Syria it would be easy for munitions to be captured, roughly manufactured and/or surreptitiously brought in to the country

[ProSense]

14. Ridiculous. n/t

[Uncle Joe]

15. Well I can't argue with that. n/t