Syria: Nearly Half Rebel Fighters Are Jihadists Or Hardline Islamists, Says IHS Jane's Report

[Purveyor]

7:17PM BST 15 Sep 2013

Opposition forces battling Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria now number around 100,000 fighters, but after more than two years of fighting they are fragmented into as many as 1,000 bands.

The new study by IHS Jane's, a defence consultancy, estimates there are around 10,000 jihadists - who would include foreign fighters - fighting for powerful factions linked to al-Qaeda.

Another 30,000 to 35,000 are hardline Islamists who share much of the outlook of the jihadists, but are focused purely on the Syrian war rather than a wider international struggle.

There are also at least a further 30,000 moderates belonging to groups that have an Islamic character, meaning only a small minority of the rebels are linked to secular or purely nationalist groups.

MORE...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/10311007/Syria-nearly-half-rebel-fighters-are-jihadists-or-hardline-Islamists-says-IHS-Janes-report.html

[Turbineguy]

1. Which basically insures that Assad

will stay.

[xchrom]

2. du rec.

[leveymg]

3. We can thank the Obama Administration for unleashing them upon the world once they're through

chewing up Syria.

Brilliant strategy, Hill and David. You went along with this, Barack. Thanks in advance for the chaos this plague of Jihadis and reconstituted al-Qaeda is going to cause here and all over the world in a short time.

[Igel]

4. Let's not borrow trouble.

What you're predicting hasn't happened and might well not happen.

That might be because Assad stays. Or because the secularists get enough force to quell the Islamists. Or because when push comes to shove, they take control and have a quagmire in dealing with non-Islamist Syrians who rebel and reject them. Or a fourth option that isn't obvious to me right now.

If they win they're likely to be splintered and be too busy fighting each other to worry about their fitna-ess to lead.

Or perhaps at that point it'll be time for the French to go in and mop up the Islamists as they enjoyed doing in one of their former colonies, exerting their mentorship over yet another hapless people in need of their protection. /sarcasm

Or something else. In the USSR it was harder to predict that past than the future. Fortunately, the USSR is no more and the future is again hard to predict.

[leveymg]

6. I guess there's always Iran. That oughta keep them all busy for a while longer.

P.S. - I almost forgot, big shout out to the Saudi Arabia for keeping events percolating, even when we seemed to lose interest. You guys are doing yeoman service for spreading the word and all the hard work, as you did last time on 9/11.

[Uncle Joe]

5. Which leads credence to the possiblity that the chemical weapons tragedy was sabotage.

Al Qaueda would love nothing more than for two of it's primary enemies; the U.S. and Russia to become engaged in a greater war over Syria.

Thanks for the thread, Purveyor.

[ProSense]

7. So

Opposition forces battling Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria now number around 100,000 fighters, but after more than two years of fighting they are fragmented into as many as 1,000 bands.

..."jihadists" are only 10 percent?

From the piece:

10,000 jihadists - who would include foreign fighters.

30,000 to 35,000 are hardline Islamists...focused purely on the Syrian war rather than a wider international struggle.

30,000 moderates belonging to groups that have an Islamic character

"Hardline Islamists" by whose definition, and why would that be surprising in Syria?

Also, what about the other 30,000?

The piece states that only 10 percent are "jihadists."

Here is what Kerry stated:

Kerry replied: "I just don't agree that a majority are al Qaeda and the bad guys. That's not true. There are about 70,000 to 100,000 oppositionists ... Maybe 15 percent to 25 percent might be in one group or another who are what we would deem to be bad guys.

"There is a real moderate opposition that exists. General Idriss is running the military arm of that," Kerry continued, referring to General Salim Idriss, head of the rebel Free Syrian Army. Increasingly, he said, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states are funneling assistance through Idriss.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10023601884#post7

[Cha]

8. Thanks PS "Widespread misinformation in the West deepens Syria’s crisis"

snip//

"When the focus in the United States shifted towards possible American air strikes to degrade the Syrian regime’s capacity to use chemical weapons, the armed Syrian opposition was criticised or dismissed from a variety of perspectives.

The air-strike debate is now paused, after the US and Russia agreed on a way to eliminate the chemical weapons peacefully. But the debate highlighted certain misconceptions that malign the entire armed opposition as Al Qaeda.

The crude Islamophobia at work is unmistakable. A notorious viral video circulated by the right-wing Tea Party movement purports to show serving American military personnel, in uniform, holding placards over their faces with messages such as: “Obama, don’t deploy me to fight your war for Al Qaeda in Syria.”

Such assertions are hardly restricted to anonymous videos or fringe figures. Republican Senator Ted Cruz, a rising star on the American right, summarised this misapprehension in a Washington Post article saying a reason he would vote against President Barack Obama’s requested (now suspended) authorisation for the use of force in Syria is that: “We should never give weapons to people who hate us, and the United States should not support or arm Al Qaeda terrorists.”

snip//

This means, in effect, that large sections of American opinion have, in one way or another, swallowed the line promoted by the Damascus dictatorship since the days of the unarmed protests, that Syria is under attack by a gang of foreign-led, Al Qaeda terrorists."[/i]


There's more..
http://www.thenational.ae/thenationalconversation/comment/widespread-misinformation-in-the-west-deepens-syrias-crisis

[pampango]

9. And yet Assad's forces out human-rights-abuse the rebels by an 8-1 margin.

Kind of makes you wonder the real "terrorists" are.

At least eight massacres have been perpetrated in Syria by President Bashar Assad's regime and supporters and one by rebels over the past year and a half, a U.N. commission said Wednesday.

http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/probe-massacres-syria-regime-rebels-20221533

The struggle in Syria began peacefully in spring of 2011, but after about half a year it turned violent when the regime deployed tanks and other heavy munitions against the protesters. Some of the latter took up weapons and turned to violence in revenge. Thereafter the struggle spiraled into a civil war, in which the regime showed itself perfectly willing to attack civilian city quarters and kill indiscriminately. The struggle has killed over 100,000 persons. As the regime became ever more brutal, the rebel fighters were increasingly radicalized. Now, among the more important groups is Jabhat al-Nusra or the Succor Front, a radical al-Qaeda affiliate.

http://www.juancole.com/2013/09/attack-syria-prolong.html

I am sure Assad knew at the beginnings that repressing demonstrators would either restore "order" or lead eventually to violence in return. Once the opposition adopted violence in response, it was predictable that bad folks would show up. None of this was a surprise to Assad.

[FarCenter]

10. K&R