House looks ready to kill Syria strike resolution

[bigtree]

Last edited Thu Sep 5, 2013, 10:59 AM - Edit history (1)

tweeted by, Ezra Klein ?@ezraklein 18m
Wonkbook: House looks ready to kill Syria strike resolution http://wapo.st/19lrgMX


____ When President Obama decided to ask Congress for authorization to strike Syria, he put the mission at the mercy of both public opinion and congressional Republicans. Neither bet is looking particularly good right now. Public opinion remains overwhelmingly opposed — and that’s even truer in the slice of public opinion that contacts members of Congress.

“The active public is against this,” Rep. Brad Sherman, who supports intervention, told me. “I don’t know a member of Congress whose e-mails and phone calls are in favor of this.”

How against this? The National Review’s Ramesh Ponnuru tweets that “an undeclared senator’s office tells me calls have run roughly 1200-7 against intervention in Syria.” Perhaps that’s an outlier. But so far, there are no outliers on the pro-intervention side, at least that anyone knows about.

Meanwhile, Jonathan Allen and Jake Sherman report that House Republicans are not inclined to back President Obama on Syria. “Several lawmakers and aides who have been canvassing support say that nearly 80 percent of the House Republican Conference is, to some degree, opposed to launching strikes in Syria. Informal counts by Obama allies show that support in Congress for Obama’s plans is in the low dozens.”


read: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/09/05/wonkbook-house-looks-ready-to-kill-syria-strike-resolution/

related:

ThinkProgress ?@thinkprogress 7m
Freshly updated Syria whip count: No/Lean No: 199 Yes/Lean Yes: 49 http://thkpr.gs/15RgyxN pic.twitter.com/E4YvMbXOMg



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[darkangel218]

1. Wishful thinking.

It ain't going to happen.

[cali]

2. I think the odds are greater that it passes, but I wouldn't wager much

on that when it comes to the House.

[David Krout]

4. So you mean you would wager at least some money that the House votes for strikes?

Correct me if I'm wrong.

[cali]

5. yeah. I think the epic arm twisting tilts it in that direction

[David Krout]

7. Noted. Thanks nt

[rhett o rick]

18. I agree. THose that are against are more apt to speak out.

IMO many in favor will keep quiet until the vote hoping not to draw attention.

[R. Daneel Olivaw]

21. Possibly, but it would also work as a great setup.

The Republicans defeat PBO in what he asks for: forcing him to go it alone after leading him along.

PBO then can either go it alone, which the GOPigs will use against him, or he will stay with arming the rebels.

The GOPigs would love that too. They could tell everybody what they would do, but that Obama wouldn't go far enough for them.

[bluestate10]

33. Democrats are starting to waver in favor of passage. My guess is the the resolution gets

dressed up some and passes. The teaparty republicans playing their hand early has given pause to a number of Democrats who might have voted no in a normal House.

[David__77]

27. I know you'd like a war against Syria, but this CAN be stopped.

There are perhaps enough patriots in the house to say NO to a war for al Qaeda.

[darkangel218]

32. A war for al queda.

Lol, ok.

[spanone]

3. as much as the right endorses war, they hate Obama more.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. Your average Republican's raison d'etre is to defeat and humiliate the president.

This is a f--king mess, probably one of the biggest messes I have seen in decades of watching politics.

[HooptieWagon]

9. I'll grant you that much of the GOP anti-war vote....

...is just being anti-Obama. Thats OK by me....its the result that matters to me, not the path taken. US military strike in Syria is a bad idea.

[TwilightGardener]

10. If you read RW sites (and I do), the main reasons for opposing a strike on Syria

are to: defeat the President, and punish Democrats for undermining Bush during Iraq. Looking to Republicans for valid, helpful opinions on this matter is like asking a 3-year-old to help you with your taxes.

[Nuclear Unicorn]

11. Maybe we'll get lucky and the Islamophobia will kick-in harder

The first reply to your thread was right -- this is a mess.

[kiva]

12. This is my hope.

The twisted irony that prejudice may be the only thing that prevents this travesty of 'peacekeeping'.

[MineralMan]

8. Too early for the whips to count their chickenhawks.

I wouldn't put any money on this.

[kestrel91316]

13. Fine with me. Let the Syrians duke it out on their own.

If fundamentalist radicals get in control of the government there and THEN pose a threat to us is some legitimate way, then traditional war goes onto the table.

In the meantime, AFAIAC it's Israel who has an interest in the conflict and not us.

[malaise]

14. This is actually the one bill I want Obama to lose

Fingers crossed

[Warren Stupidity]

15. The republics will offer a yes vote in exchange for a repeal or defunding of ACA. nt.

[MoonRiver]

17. Then the vote will fail, cause that ain't gonna happen.

[Warren Stupidity]

19. or not. It depends on how bad they want this war.

But if it passes the house it presents Obama with an opportunity to make a tough choice. Need I say more?

[MoonRiver]

20. How oh how to choose: Hate on Obama or War!

Such a dilemma. What's a teabag to do??

[tjwash]

16. Yay! Then we can get back to the...

...ZOMG!!! OBAMA 1S TAKING AWAY MY SOCIAL SECURITY11!!!!11! crap, and other figments of peoples imaginations that aren't going to happen either.

I am looking forward to the upcoming flood of WSWS linked conspiracy threads by the usual's, after this round of pearl clutching is over, with great anticipation!

There are some people on this message board that seriously need to get out more...

[AnotherMcIntosh]

22. More likely than not, they will do what their lobbyists tell them to do. Does any lobbying

organization want more war in the Middle-East?

[eissa]

23. GOP has obstructed everything else

Let's hope they add this to their long list. It'll be a challenge, though: voting against something they love so much (war) vs. trying to take down the black guy.

[andym]

24. Look at the trend: 13 GOPers YES, 149 NO-> now 11 YES and 158 NO @6pm EST!

Last edited Thu Sep 5, 2013, 05:54 PM - Edit history (2)

There's no way this gets passed. Boehner is the weakest Speaker in years: his party votes the way they want to in most cases. The GOP truly despises the President and wish him to fail at everything.

[blazeKing]

25. I hope he does fail at warmongering

There's no excuse for this right now when we have so many problems in America that need addressing

[RobertEarl]

36. Obama can't lose

Where are the peace mongerers going to go? To the pubbies? Nope. We are stuck with the least evil choice.

Even if Obama gets to launch a few missiles, he still can't lose. If Russia responds, all the RW will back Obama.

So let's hope Obama war mongering becomes just a small historic moment in time that we all learn a lesson from.

[David__77]

29. Those that say NO are taking the right position, regardless of their rationale.

This think should go down in flames!

[pampango]

34. Where did you get those figures? The OP states GOP - 13 Yes, 148 No. DEM - 36 Yes, 51 No. n/t

[andym]

41. you're right-- but it's now 13 yes, 149 NO for the GOP

Sorry, misread the number-- corrected.

[JimDandy]

43. Maybe he made a deal with the GOP...pass this and then I'll step down in 2014.

[andym]

44. On the House GOP side, voting for the airstrikes will probably be grounds to be primaried

by the tea party. It's not that they don't want the strikes, they just disagree with the President on principles-- anything he's for, they're against.

[andym]

45. GOP trend for NO continues: as of 9/6: 170 NO, 9 YES

Combined with 30 YES, and 53 NO for Democrats, there's 223 NO votes, which is more than a majority against.

[andym]

46. Trend as of 9/9-> GOP 180 NO and 12 YES, Democrats 58 NO and 30 YES -> total 233 NO, 42 YES nt.

[mike_c]

26. good....

No more aggressive war in our names!

[madamesilverspurs]

28. Republicans can be trusted

to abide by their guiding criterion that Obama be cast in the worst possible light, nothing else matters.

And it's damned sad that so many DUers have joined them in that endeavor.

[David__77]

30. What? You want to kill Syrians?

What's up with that?

[madamesilverspurs]

35. Care to show me where I said any such thing????

I was lamenting the reality that there are those for whom trashing this president is the only road map, everything and anything else is secondary.

Killing Syrians is in there exactly where?

[David__77]

37. OK, so you think there is no principled opposition to war against Syria?

Not among Democrats or Republicans? "So many DUers" are opposed to war against Syria, it is true! I campaign and voted for Obama, and supported him way back in his primary campaign for US senate. We are not reflexively anti-Obama, but this would be not just a mistake, but an immoral CRIME.

[madamesilverspurs]

38. Again -- WHERE DID I SAY ANY SUCH THING?

Please stop putting your words in my mouth.

[David__77]

39. Fair enough. I apologize.

It did seem implicit in what you said, but apparently I was wrong.

[madamesilverspurs]

40. Apology accepted.

Thank you.

[Solly Mack]

31. I'd imagine they're open to horse trading.

Not saying that is what will happen. Just saying the President wants something from the House and the House might just want something from the President.

I wouldn't be counting my chickens just yet. (either way)

This comment shouldn't be construed as anything other than what it is....an observation that if Obama really wants this vote to go his way then the House (GOP majority) will demand something in return.


I, personally, don't know how the vote will go.

[andym]

42. They (the House GOP) do want something from the President-- for him to resign

But I don't think he will go that far to accommodate him.