Kerry Statements About 'Moderate' Syrian Rebels More Optimistic Than Intelligence Reports

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HuffPost Politics ?@HuffPostPol 19m
John Kerry's Syria assertions remain at odds with intelligence reports http://huff.to/1dJuYVp (Reuters)


WASHINGTON, Sept 5 (Reuters) - Secretary of State John Kerry's public assertions that moderate Syrian opposition groups are growing in influence appear to be at odds with estimates by U.S. and European intelligence sources and nongovernmental experts, who say Islamic extremists remain by far the fiercest and best-organized rebel elements.

At congressional hearings this week, while making the case for President Barack Obama's plan for limited military action in Syria, Kerry asserted that the armed opposition to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad "has increasingly become more defined by its moderation, more defined by the breadth of its membership, and more defined by its adherence to some, you know, democratic process and to an all-inclusive, minority-protecting constitution.

"And the opposition is getting stronger by the day," Kerry told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Tuesday.

U.S. and allied intelligence sources and private experts on the Syrian conflict suggest that assessment is optimistic.

While the radical Islamists among the rebels may not be numerically superior to more moderate fighters, they say, Islamist groups like the al Qaeda-aligned Nusra Front are better organized, armed and trained.


read more: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/09/05/john-kerry-syrian-rebels_n_3870782.html?ncid=edlinkusaolp00000003

[leveymg]

1. This reminds me of the time that Bush brought the Taliban to Houston for a tour

and the CIA's giving Mullah "the Blind Sheikh" Omar a special visa to organize Islamic fighters who went on to blow up the WTC garage in 1993 and then there was our special relationship with Saudi Intelligence that led to CIA visas being given to the 9/11 hijackers even though they were known terrorists, and then there's the Tsarnaevs and their CIA handlers - when will they ever learn?

[David Krout]

2. Kerry knows what he's talking about

Like when he said the Egyptian coup "restored Democracy" lol.

[Junkdrawer]

3. Their motives were showing.....

Assad was winning, yet they want us to believe he was desperate enough to launch chemical weapons the DAY the UN CW inspectors arrived.

Of course they HAVE to change the narrative to "Assad was backed into a corner and used his last chance option." Facts be damned.

[blm]

5. Pretty sure Kerry knows far more about Assad's current mental state than anyone

in this country.

[blm]

4. If WH knows the moderates are the ones they are arming, then

it stands to reason that would shift the balance of power to the moderate camp being armed.

[KurtNYC]

6. The transcript of Kerry's exchange with Johnson

SEN. JOHNSON: What do we know about the opposition? I mean, what is -- have we been tracking them for the last two years? I mean, it seems like -- and this is more of an impression I have as opposed to any exact knowledge, but it seems like initially, the opposition was maybe more Western-leaning, more moderate, more democratic, and as time has gone by, it's degraded, become more infiltrated by al-Qaida. That -- is that basically true? Or to -- (inaudible) -- has that happened?

SEC. KERRY: No, that is -- no, that is actually basically not true. It's basically incorrect. The opposition has increasingly become more defined by its moderation, more defined by the breadth of its membership and more defined by its adherence to some, you know, democratic process and to an all-inclusive, minority-protecting constitution, which will be broad-based and secular with respect to the future of Syria. And that's very critical.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/running-transcript-senate-foreign-services-committee-hearing-on-syria/2013/09/03/35ae1048-14ca-11e3-b182-1b3bb2eb474c_story_4.html

I note the function of the word "basically" in Kerry's answer. It puts the truth at somewhere between 99% and 51% but I don't know what to make of his use of "secular."

Al Nursa is estimated at 7,000 troops in Syria. Sunni Jihadists who advocate sharia law and a pan Islamic state.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al-Nusra_Front

ISIL (or Islamic State of Iraq and Levant) -- also Sunni Jihadists and Al Qaeda. Obviously NOT secular Mr. Kerry:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_State_of_Iraq_and_the_Levant

[ProSense]

7. Why would anyone want to exaggerate the claim that the rebels are "radical Islamists"?

As recently as late July, at a security conference in Aspen, Colorado, the deputy director of the Pentagon's Defense Intelligence Agency, David Shedd, estimated that there were at least 1,200 different Syrian rebel groups and that Islamic extremists, notably the Nusra Front, were well-placed to expand their influence.

"Left unchecked, I'm very concerned that the most radical elements will take over larger segments" of the opposition groups, Shedd said. He added that the conflict could drag on anywhere "from many, many months to multiple years" and that a prolonged stalemate could leave open parts of Syria to potential control by radical fighters.

Still, this assessment doesn't counter what Kerry stated, which was that up to 25 percent of the opposition are "bad guys," including some that are al Qaeda.

Kerry replied: "I just don't agree that a majority are al Qaeda and the bad guys. That's not true. There are about 70,000 to 100,000 oppositionists ... Maybe 15 percent to 25 percent might be in one group or another who are what we would deem to be bad guys.

"There is a real moderate opposition that exists. General Idriss is running the military arm of that," Kerry continued, referring to General Salim Idriss, head of the rebel Free Syrian Army. Increasingly, he said, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states are funneling assistance through Idriss.

[Sand Wind]

8. A lot of people have been subject to the Assad and Russia propaganda, they think RT

Is a great media institution...

[HooptieWagon]

9. This is counter to reports...

...of foreign jihadists pouring over the borders to join jihadist rebel groups, and of FSA leadership beginning to fracture. Not to mention, a number of jihadists within the supposedly secular FSA.

I do not see any good coming from US military involvement. I think a better solution is to engage in talks with Russia (if Obama hasn't already blown the opportunity) and seek a solution that addresses the concerns both countries have in common. Neither US nor Russian national security is served by handing Syria over to Al Qaeda.