Researchers at MIT said the weapons held up to 50 times more nerve agent than previously estimated.

[pampango]

Analysts have been examining the type of weapons used in last month's chemical attack to try to work out why they were so much more deadly than previous incidents.

Researchers at Massachusetts Institute of Technology said the weapons held up to 50 times more nerve agent than previously estimated, the New York Times reports.

Their analysis of rocket parts and wreckage posted online suggested that the warheads carried toxic payloads of about 50 liters (13 gallons), not the one or two liters (up to half a gallon) of nerve agent that some weapons experts had previously estimated.

“It’s a clever design,” Dr Theodore Postol said of the munitions in an interview. “It’s clever not only in how it was implemented but in the effectiveness of its dispersal. It accounts for the large number of causalities.”

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/sep/05/syria-putin-obama-g20-showdown

[tridim]

1. Fucking MIT Researchers, under the bus with you!!!!11 Signed, Neo-DU.

[MinM]

2. “It’s a clever design,”

Sounds like the rebels are getting pretty sophisticated weaponry.

[pampango]

3. Not according to Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders, but wishing can still make it so. n/t

[blazeKing]

12. They got the faux intelligence everyone else got

not surprising.

[pampango]

15. I don't view them as gullible, liberal idiots. Perhaps you do. They have both proven

they do not routinely accept the viewpoint of the PTB nor the evidence they present. Inded they have kicked the asses of the PTB on multiple occasions.

[Romulox]

23. *You* are the only one using the phrase "gullible, liberal idiots". So dishonest. nt

[alcibiades_mystery]

4. Some of the more important quotes

From the NY Times source story:

The study, by leading weapons experts, also strongly suggests that the mass of toxic material could have come only from a large stockpile.

In an interview, Mr. Lloyd said the manufacture of the rockets, if not the deadly nerve agent, appeared to be within the capabilities of both the Syrian government and the rebels.

But Stephen Johnson, a former British Army chemical warfare expert who is now a forensic expert at Cranfield University, at Shrivenham, said if the estimate of a 50-liter payload was correct, only the Syrian government could have achieved such a large volume of production.

“That’s a fairly substantial amount to produce yourself and beyond the opposition in its wildest dreams,” he said. Suggestions that the Syrian rebels seized or secretly obtained such amounts, Mr. Johnson added, lacked credibility. “It’s more supportive of the argument that it was the government,” he said.

*********************

[Warpy]

5. Well, except that rebels with their interconnected tribe and family system

know somebody whose sister is married to a guard at one of the facilities. All it takes is a bribe and everybody knows one or two or half a dozen of those things won't be missed for a long time.

Again, information coming out of that country is very poor in quality. MSF docs on the scene have confirmed the nature of the attack but not its origin.

Yes, Assad could have ordered it, but his motivation is unclear since it did him more harm than good. However, there is at least an equal chance that the rebels did this one.

We don't have a dog in this fight except maybe the families caught between factions, hunkered down in dark and hunger and wondering if they'll live another day. Adding even more bombs to what they're enduring is not going to help them a bit.

It will, however, cause more people to rally around Assad, as people do for the worst leaders when an attack has come from outside.

[joshcryer]

9. How does it do Assad more harm than good?

If the US strikes then Assad gets to go scorched earth on the rebels. If the US doesn't strike it sends a message to the rebels that the government is willing to go to any extent to exterminate the threat. There's no downside for Assad.

The downside for the rebels is that a reactive strike means that Assad gets to go scorched earth on them and decimate the entire rebel force. They may not have thought this through, I admit, but I am not sure many people are that stupid. Except for those ignorantly ignoring Assad's strategy.

[Warpy]

11. International condemnation has occurred out of proportion to the deaths

After all, he'd killed some 100,000 with conventional stuff with only a few low grumbles.

Now he's got to be thinking about incoming drones and a big target on his ass.

[pampango]

16. Perhaps he is not worried about international condemnation. Juan Cole presents one rationale:

If the regime did use gas, what are its motives? Iraq used gas in the 1980s because it had far fewer troops than Iran and wanted to level the playing field. Likewise, the Syrian army has shrunk through Sunni desertions to a shadow of its former self and so can’t control the whole country any more. Its recent advances in the Homs area were offset by losses around Aleppo in the north, including the fall of a major military air base. Weakened armies facing a demographically larger foe often resort to unconventional armaments.

Likewise, the regime clearly is seeking to terrify the population into submission. Again, Saddam Hussein tried that with the Kurds and Shiites. Mass killings of restive populations by a regime raise the cost of insurgency, the regime hopes to unacceptably high levels. Could the Baath have done this? This is the regime that slaughtered at least 10,000 at Hama in 1982, so sure.

Did they do it? Hard to tell this morning.. But if they did, it will increase pressure on a reluctant Obama to speed up promised shipments of weapons to the rebels. If Damascus is playing it this way, it is clearly calling Obama’s bluff. Lesson to Mr. Obama: don’t bluff and don’t set red lines unless you’re really committted to reacting if they are crossed.

http://www.juancole.com/2013/08/killing-hundreds-obamas.html

[joshcryer]

18. It's worse than that.

Juan Cole isn't considering the ultimate crackdown on the rebels if the US strikes. Even the US assessment report agrees that this is a possibility. I frankly think it is a certainty. Assad almost won the thing and he's looking for a way to end it. Scorched earth is that way.

The closer we get to the eventuality I will post an OP with my prediction. I will hope said OP is wrong. It won't be.

[joshcryer]

17. 100k dead = 100 a day. Chemical weapons = 1400 a day.

I think you lack perspective of proportion here.

[okieinpain]

28. sorry, i just have to add my two cents. if there is no response from the

international community, Assad will go scorched earth. he will have nothing to lose if there is no response. just saying that's all.

[joshcryer]

29. A response from the international community = the UN.

I don't think Assad can ramp up without a strike because the world will take it to the UN and the holdouts will be tasked with actually having to discuss the civil war. 5 years from now, if there's no strike, it'll still be ongoing and hundreds more thousand will be dead. Eventually it will come to a head.

[bhikkhu]

24. Plenty of things Assad has done have caused him more harm than good

The situation he is in, even without chemical weapons, is largely of his own making. The notion that he is some master strategist that wouldn't do something counter-productive is hardly born out by his other actions. The first one that comes to mind is the kidnapping, torture and murder of children of opposition members, the widely circulated photos of one young victim being one spark for the war.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2158032/Syrian-troops-torture-execute-children-use-human-shields-says-damning-UN-report.html

- is a UN report from a year ago. Of course, you could say its all uncertain and could have been manufactured evidence, and still believe that Assad is a benevolent mastermind.

[Warpy]

27. Nobody thinks Assad is anything but a vicious dictator

who was trained in the job by his vicious dictator father. However, the rebels aren't choirboys, either. We really have no dog in this particular fight any more than we did in Lebanon.

The bottom line is that we don't understand what's really going on there and, failing to understand it, will be completely incompetent at dealing with it.

And that's in a best case scenario, without the bear in the woods.

[BeyondGeography]

6. Putin is still "unconvinced"

Mainly, he's upset that the Libya resolution got away from him, but let's pretend this is all about the evidence. He'd have a better leg to stand on if he put his other objection front-and-center (an attack would strengthen Islamist extremists), but for whatever reason he has climbed out on the "evidence" limb.

[Robb]

7. Putin knows going on the other limb will cause trouble at home.

The evidence limb won't.

[BeyondGeography]

10. Everyone is faced with bad options, but Putin's motives are foolish

Their "good faith" on the Libya UN resolution was "abused," and Putin is using it as payback:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/sep/04/g20-frosty-relations-putin-obama-syria

[enlightenment]

8. They looked at pictures posted online

and formed an opinion of how much they held (not how much they might hold) based on that?

Isn't that a bit like Bill Frist diagnosing Terry Schivo on the Senate floor, after looking at pictures?

[Robb]

13. Again, there's a reason rocket scientists are held in high esteem.

Bill Frist is no rocket scientist.

[kiva]

14. Photograpic evidence is always the best.

[URL=.html][IMG][/IMG][/URL]

http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/08/11/photography-as-a-weapon/?_r=0#2

[freshwest]

19. Putin: Russia might let U.N. OK strike against Syria

AP/ September 4, 2013

NOVO-OGARYOVO, Russia President Vladimir Putin warned the West against taking one-sided action in Syria but also said Russia "doesn't exclude" supporting a U.N. resolution on punitive military strikes if it is proven that Damascus used poison gas on its own people.

In a wide-ranging interview with The Associated Press and Russia's state Channel 1 television, Putin said Moscow has provided some components of the S-300 air defense missile system to Syria but has frozen further shipments. He suggested that Russia may sell the potent missile systems elsewhere if Western nations attack Syria without U.N. Security Council backing...

"If there are data that the chemical weapons have been used, and used specifically by the regular army, this evidence should be submitted to the U.N. Security Council," added Putin, a former officer in the Soviet KGB. "And it ought to be convincing. It shouldn't be based on some rumors and information obtained by special services through some kind of eavesdropping, some conversations and things like that..."

Asked what kind of evidence on chemical weapons use would convince Russia, Putin said it "should be a deep and specific probe containing evidence that would be obvious and prove beyond doubt who did it and what means were used..."

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-202_162-57601235/putin-russia-might-let-u.n-ok-strike-against-syria/

While the interview did not endorse action, he left room with sufficient scientific evidence. The USA and Russia have worked hard since 1992 as signatories to the CWC on the reduction of their own stockpiles of WMD. Not only chemical, but biological and nuclear.

Russia recieved American help and money to help destroy its stockpile and is 90% down. The USA has eliminated 57% and has more work from by the stockpiles by GWB which must be destroyed. Syria and North Korea did not sign onto the CWC but 189 nations have.

Iraq was producing them before the first Gulf War and still had some in 2009 but they are heavily damaged. It has always been said that CW are the poor man's nuclear bomb and that's why it's been hard to get those who have them to give them up, it's their ultimate tool.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chemical_Weapons_Convention

The Arab League, that Kerry mentioned as being willing to pay for action in Syria, has not agreed with its members who reacted harshly to the Arab Spring. Libya was suspended because of its actions toward protestors and that is why there was no hue and outcry over the toppling of Quaddafi. The interim government has been given his seat.

Assad's regime in Syria is also suspended, because of his violence against his opponents. The Arab League picked a rebel force, the Syrian National Coalition, to take Assad's seat in the League in 2013:

A wave of criticism rose as the Arab League sent in December 2011 a commission "monitoring" violence on people protesting against the regime. The commission was headed by Mohammad Ahmed Mustafa al-Dabi, who served as head of Omar al-Bashir's military intelligence, while war crimes including genocide were allegedly committed on his watch.[15][16][17]

On 6 March 2013, the Arab League granted the Syrian National Coalition Syria's seat in the Arab League.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arab_league

A read of the Wikipedia page there shows that the Arab League, composed of 22 nations, which has regulated trade and other things in the countries connected by language and tradition, is not a fly-by-night or a USA creation. They have their own interests and have acted upon them, and have also worked with the USA and Britain as the article there shows.

[Romulox]

20. Zero surprise to see you beating the drum, pampango. Tell us about the incubators, next! nt

[pampango]

21. Thanks for your insightful contribution to the discussion, old friend. n/t

[Romulox]

22. All that's required to skewer your crude propaganda is a gentle reminder of previous claims.

[pampango]

26. You'll have to dig up my post about "incubators". I wasn't posting on DU back then but if you can

find it, I won't try to deny it.

[backscatter712]

25. The thing about chemical weapons is that they're orders of magnitude simpler to build than nukes.

As one DUer pointed out, making the nerve agent itself is like making bug spray. Granted, the tough part is that you have to use a lot of protective gear during the manufacturing process, and while handling the stuff, so it doesn't kill you, but Aum Shinrikyo, the Japanese terrorist cult, killed a whole bunch of people in the Tokyo subway using homemade sarin.

I'm not sure about the rockets. They need more sophistication in their construction, so I think the MIT researchers are right. But both the rebels and the Assad regime have access to military grade hardware - Assad's regime because they're getting help from the Russians, and they're a full-fledged government with a real military... and the rebels have been getting help from the Saudis, and from us.