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pampango

(24,692 posts)
Sun Sep 1, 2013, 05:50 PM Sep 2013

Juan Cole: Assad troops got the mixture wrong

US intelligence agencies released an intercept on Wednesday showing that after the attack, a ministry of defense official made outraged inquiries from a local commander as to what in the world he had done.

The intercept would be consistent with local Baath chem warfare units routinely mixing a little deadly sarin gas into crowd control gas, killing small numbers of rebels with each deployment, but in this case making an error and getting the mix wrong.
Thus, around a thousand were killed instead of dozens. British intelligence seems to have come to a similar conclusion

The intercept does not prove that Bashar al-Assad knew about or ordered the chemical weapons attack. It does not, however, disprove that the Baath regime has a systematic policy of low level use of chemical weapons. It does put paid to the crackpot conspiracy theory, advanced by the regime and the Russians, that the rebels gassed themselves.

President Obama has probably boxed himself into rather uselessly tossing a couple of cruise missiles onto Damascus next week. For a thoughtful man he often seems to lock himself into undesirable courses of action by ill-considered and hasty public remarks. But whatever he does, it seems clear that it won’t have the kind of multilateral framework he prefers, and he’ll have to cowboy it.

http://www.juancole.com/2013/08/western-strike-stall.html

This is a Cole post from before Obama's referral of the issue to congress.

28 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Juan Cole: Assad troops got the mixture wrong (Original Post) pampango Sep 2013 OP
You underestimate President Barack Obama VanillaRhapsody Sep 2013 #1
It is a frequent pattern BlueStreak Sep 2013 #15
It's not a problem if he meant it... VanillaRhapsody Sep 2013 #21
I don't trust "U.S. intelligence services" any farther than I can throw them.... mike_c Sep 2013 #2
Perhaps you forget that Bush/Powell cherry picked the intelligence ignoring anything karynnj Sep 2013 #6
of course they did.... mike_c Sep 2013 #8
There is new blood at the helm since then... VanillaRhapsody Sep 2013 #22
do you really think that makes any difference? mike_c Sep 2013 #24
Yes I do... VanillaRhapsody Sep 2013 #25
good lord, they've been exposed lying a dozen times in the last few weeks.... mike_c Sep 2013 #26
Fuck Juan cole warrior1 Sep 2013 #3
Cogent response tabasco Sep 2013 #11
Cole is strongly opposed to US/western intervention in Syria. "Fuck him"' if you wish. pampango Sep 2013 #14
and someone who is on the ground currently in Syria Richard Engle would say "fuck him" to Cole. VanillaRhapsody Sep 2013 #23
This was not told by the Russians, it was the Mint Press jakeXT Sep 2013 #4
Mint Press does not claim to have proven anything. pampango Sep 2013 #12
I'm talking about gassing themselves, the Mint Press one is the only account I heard. jakeXT Sep 2013 #16
RT has been reporting on the chemical weapons and rebles firing it off... Historic NY Sep 2013 #27
Interesting video. /nt jakeXT Sep 2013 #28
That is about the most implausible thing I've read yet about this chem-weapon thing. backscatter712 Sep 2013 #5
Yep, it reeks. bemildred Sep 2013 #9
The logic is mush. n/t Igel Sep 2013 #7
The President does occasionally make what appears to be poorly thought out public remarks that bluestate10 Sep 2013 #10
If anyone knew anything about Assads army it's that it does not use tear gas on the rebels Jesus Malverde Sep 2013 #13
As a scientist I'm appalled ... GeorgeGist Sep 2013 #17
This is a civil war, not a protest. Ridiculous idea. Coyotl Sep 2013 #18
Cole's suggestion doesn't make sense - it happened before or around dawn muriel_volestrangler Sep 2013 #19
I am not sure how that is even possible Lee-Lee Sep 2013 #20
 

VanillaRhapsody

(21,115 posts)
1. You underestimate President Barack Obama
Sun Sep 1, 2013, 05:55 PM
Sep 2013

at your peril....

"For a thoughtful man he often seems to lock himself into undesirable courses of action by ill-considered and hasty public remarks."

I find the exact opposite is true...

I like a President who does his best to do what he says he will do!

 

BlueStreak

(8,377 posts)
15. It is a frequent pattern
Sun Sep 1, 2013, 06:45 PM
Sep 2013

He came out the first day of the IRS attack and threw the IRS under the bus. Later we learned that the IRS, while maybe having some sloppy procedures, operated with no bias at all and was essentially trying their best to efficiently deal with a flood of phony teabagger requests. But because Obama shot off his mouth, that case was lost the first day.

Same deal with throwing chained CPI into the mix. We haven't lost that one yet, but progressives have had to expend a huge amount of our capital to hold off this attack, all because Obama was reckless in his early comments.

That's the issue here. This is all a "crisis" because Obama used the words "bright red line".

Everybody agrees that the Syrian situation is tragic. It was tragic before the chemicals were set off. The issue is that lobbing in a few missiles and then walking away will only make matters worse, and that is only being considered BECAUSE Obama was reckless in his statements.

And why is he reckless? Is it because he is a stupid man? No, of course not. it is because he instinctively tries to avoid conflicts, and in each of the above instances, he ended up with these reckless positions because he was trying to appease the right-wingers.

Appeasement is just not the best opening move when dealing with Republicans, and he has not learned this lesson. I do not think he is capable.

 

VanillaRhapsody

(21,115 posts)
21. It's not a problem if he meant it...
Sun Sep 1, 2013, 07:20 PM
Sep 2013

now is it...

You would hardly be the first to underestimate that man...in fact...get in line...it's getting very long!

mike_c

(36,281 posts)
2. I don't trust "U.S. intelligence services" any farther than I can throw them....
Sun Sep 1, 2013, 05:58 PM
Sep 2013

Please. Have we forgotten this:



The "intelligence services" lie reflexively to create whatever propaganda suits the latest narrative for increasing profits for the MIC and war creds for politicians.

karynnj

(59,503 posts)
6. Perhaps you forget that Bush/Powell cherry picked the intelligence ignoring anything
Sun Sep 1, 2013, 06:24 PM
Sep 2013

that did not meet their goal. They knew they fixed the intelligence.

mike_c

(36,281 posts)
8. of course they did....
Sun Sep 1, 2013, 06:28 PM
Sep 2013

That's the point. The administration uses the intelligence services to bolster its narrative. That's what I said.

on edit-- You do recall, I presume, that U.S. intelligence services said exactly what Bush and Cheney wanted them to say. There was no counter narrative coming from anyone but Hans Blix and UNSCOM. Certainly none from U.S. intelligence.

mike_c

(36,281 posts)
24. do you really think that makes any difference?
Sun Sep 1, 2013, 07:25 PM
Sep 2013

Do you think that the intel services mysteriously go bad when republican presidents are elected and that they spontaneously reform when democrats get into office? I'm afraid I'm more cynical than that. I think their first job is ALWAYS to provide propaganda in support of the administration's narrative. These are the same intel services who've been caught lying time after time about their spy on everyone programs. They lie by reflex.

mike_c

(36,281 posts)
26. good lord, they've been exposed lying a dozen times in the last few weeks....
Sun Sep 1, 2013, 07:34 PM
Sep 2013

I cannot believe they're telling the truth because I'm paying attention, and frankly, because their lips are moving.

pampango

(24,692 posts)
14. Cole is strongly opposed to US/western intervention in Syria. "Fuck him"' if you wish.
Sun Sep 1, 2013, 06:43 PM
Sep 2013

While he thinks an attack will be a disaster, he does not ignore what is going on.

Only republicans choose their facts to support their policy and ignore or discredit everything that runs counter to their policy.

jakeXT

(10,575 posts)
4. This was not told by the Russians, it was the Mint Press
Sun Sep 1, 2013, 06:03 PM
Sep 2013
A rebel leader identified as J describes the release of toxic weaponry as accidental, saying, "Some of the fighters handled the weapons improperly and set off the explosions."
http://www.fair.org/blog/2013/09/01/which-syrian-chemical-attack-account-is-more-credible/



The British intercept fairytales talk of chemical shells


A total of 27 chemical artillery shells were then fired at the suburb in a 14-minute period.
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/425981/Senior-Syrian-military-chiefs-tell-captain-fire-chemicals-or-be-shot



Russia only accused the rebels of using Sarin before

Testimony from victims strongly suggests it was the rebels, not the Syrian government, that used Sarin nerve gas during a recent incident in the revolution-wracked nation, a senior U.N. diplomat said Monday.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/may/6/syrian-rebels-used-sarin-nerve-gas-not-assads-regi/

pampango

(24,692 posts)
12. Mint Press does not claim to have proven anything.
Sun Sep 1, 2013, 06:37 PM
Sep 2013
Of course, independent media accounts are not necessarily more credible than official reports–or vice versa. As with the government white paper, there are gaps in the Mint account; while Abdel-Moneim cites his late son's account of carrying chemical weapons, the rebels quoted do not indicate how they came to know what they say they know about the origin of the weapons. But unlike the government, Mint is honest about the limits of its knowledge: "Some information in this article could not be independently verified," the story admits.

Mint Press may be right but even they say they have not proven anything conclusively.

Why are chemical artillery shells a fairy tale?


Carla del Ponte, a member of the U.N. Independent International Commission of Inquiry on Syria, told Swiss TV there were “strong, concrete suspicions but not yet incontrovertible proof,” that rebels seeking to oust Syrian strongman Bashar al-Assad had used the nerve agent.

But she said her panel had not yet seen any evidence of Syrian government forces using chemical weapons, according to the BBC, but she added that more investigation was needed.

jakeXT

(10,575 posts)
16. I'm talking about gassing themselves, the Mint Press one is the only account I heard.
Sun Sep 1, 2013, 06:50 PM
Sep 2013


The Russians only cite their UN report from earlier this year and logic (not using chemical weapons when UN inspectors are there)

Either the Syrian army did mix a little deadly Sarin gas into crowd control gas or they used chemical artillery shells ?

Or is it all made up ?

Last night senior Ministry of Defence sources confirmed that the Prime Minister was aware of several intercepts that had been picked up by nuclear submarine HMS Tireless, by RAF spy planes and by the Troodos listening station but they said the messages were initially treated with “caution” by analysts, who feared they might be fakes “planted” by rebels desperate for Western military support.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/425981/Senior-Syrian-military-chiefs-tell-captain-fire-chemicals-or-be-shot

backscatter712

(26,355 posts)
5. That is about the most implausible thing I've read yet about this chem-weapon thing.
Sun Sep 1, 2013, 06:17 PM
Sep 2013

How do you get Sarin and tear gas mixed up?

Don't they put warning labels on the Sarin containers and warheads? "WARNING! SUPER DEADLY NEUROTOXIN! ONE DROP OF THIS SHIT ON YOUR SKIN WILL KILL YOU!"

Don't they keep the chemical weapons locked up? In a separate place? Because they're fucking WMDs that are not only deadly, but bring a world of shit on the world leaders that order using them?

Either the Syrian Army's dumber than a box of rocks, or someone's lying and made this story up. And I'm betting on the latter.

My bullshit meter is pegged!

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
9. Yep, it reeks.
Sun Sep 1, 2013, 06:33 PM
Sep 2013

Both stories reek. I'm not sure which reeks more even. The idea Syria is mixing a little sarin in the tear gas or the idea that the Saudis gave them sarin with no precautions. Actually I find that last more believable, the Saudis would not, in fact, give a rip about offing a few martyrs to get an incident. But then, neither would Assad.

And we want to take sides in this?

bluestate10

(10,942 posts)
10. The President does occasionally make what appears to be poorly thought out public remarks that
Sun Sep 1, 2013, 06:33 PM
Sep 2013

come back to bite him. Maybe it is the desire to be "open", if he wasn't the far Left would pound him. Drawing a red line on Syria using chemical weapons is such a statement, the President should have gotten rock solid agreement on what would be done and who would do it before making a statement.

Jesus Malverde

(10,274 posts)
13. If anyone knew anything about Assads army it's that it does not use tear gas on the rebels
Sun Sep 1, 2013, 06:40 PM
Sep 2013

They attack them with tanks, airplanes, and small arms. This tear gas meme must fit some narrative of crowds from the arab spring. For two years now, there have been heavy battles with the rebels recently driven to the margins.



muriel_volestrangler

(101,316 posts)
19. Cole's suggestion doesn't make sense - it happened before or around dawn
Sun Sep 1, 2013, 07:08 PM
Sep 2013

and you don't do 'crowd control' then, with everyone sleeping.

 

Lee-Lee

(6,324 posts)
20. I am not sure how that is even possible
Sun Sep 1, 2013, 07:11 PM
Sep 2013

It's been a while since my NBC training, but even well trained armies get their chemical weapons preloaded at arsenals and they just fire them- none of this "mixing". I doubt even the best experts in the US would want to try that, much less whatever level the Syrian army is trained to.

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