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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsJuan Cole: Assad troops got the mixture wrong
US intelligence agencies released an intercept on Wednesday showing that after the attack, a ministry of defense official made outraged inquiries from a local commander as to what in the world he had done.
The intercept would be consistent with local Baath chem warfare units routinely mixing a little deadly sarin gas into crowd control gas, killing small numbers of rebels with each deployment, but in this case making an error and getting the mix wrong. Thus, around a thousand were killed instead of dozens. British intelligence seems to have come to a similar conclusion
The intercept does not prove that Bashar al-Assad knew about or ordered the chemical weapons attack. It does not, however, disprove that the Baath regime has a systematic policy of low level use of chemical weapons. It does put paid to the crackpot conspiracy theory, advanced by the regime and the Russians, that the rebels gassed themselves.
President Obama has probably boxed himself into rather uselessly tossing a couple of cruise missiles onto Damascus next week. For a thoughtful man he often seems to lock himself into undesirable courses of action by ill-considered and hasty public remarks. But whatever he does, it seems clear that it wont have the kind of multilateral framework he prefers, and hell have to cowboy it.
http://www.juancole.com/2013/08/western-strike-stall.html
This is a Cole post from before Obama's referral of the issue to congress.
VanillaRhapsody
(21,115 posts)at your peril....
"For a thoughtful man he often seems to lock himself into undesirable courses of action by ill-considered and hasty public remarks."
I find the exact opposite is true...
I like a President who does his best to do what he says he will do!
BlueStreak
(8,377 posts)He came out the first day of the IRS attack and threw the IRS under the bus. Later we learned that the IRS, while maybe having some sloppy procedures, operated with no bias at all and was essentially trying their best to efficiently deal with a flood of phony teabagger requests. But because Obama shot off his mouth, that case was lost the first day.
Same deal with throwing chained CPI into the mix. We haven't lost that one yet, but progressives have had to expend a huge amount of our capital to hold off this attack, all because Obama was reckless in his early comments.
That's the issue here. This is all a "crisis" because Obama used the words "bright red line".
Everybody agrees that the Syrian situation is tragic. It was tragic before the chemicals were set off. The issue is that lobbing in a few missiles and then walking away will only make matters worse, and that is only being considered BECAUSE Obama was reckless in his statements.
And why is he reckless? Is it because he is a stupid man? No, of course not. it is because he instinctively tries to avoid conflicts, and in each of the above instances, he ended up with these reckless positions because he was trying to appease the right-wingers.
Appeasement is just not the best opening move when dealing with Republicans, and he has not learned this lesson. I do not think he is capable.
VanillaRhapsody
(21,115 posts)now is it...
You would hardly be the first to underestimate that man...in fact...get in line...it's getting very long!
mike_c
(36,281 posts)Please. Have we forgotten this:
The "intelligence services" lie reflexively to create whatever propaganda suits the latest narrative for increasing profits for the MIC and war creds for politicians.
karynnj
(59,503 posts)that did not meet their goal. They knew they fixed the intelligence.
mike_c
(36,281 posts)That's the point. The administration uses the intelligence services to bolster its narrative. That's what I said.
on edit-- You do recall, I presume, that U.S. intelligence services said exactly what Bush and Cheney wanted them to say. There was no counter narrative coming from anyone but Hans Blix and UNSCOM. Certainly none from U.S. intelligence.
VanillaRhapsody
(21,115 posts)mike_c
(36,281 posts)Do you think that the intel services mysteriously go bad when republican presidents are elected and that they spontaneously reform when democrats get into office? I'm afraid I'm more cynical than that. I think their first job is ALWAYS to provide propaganda in support of the administration's narrative. These are the same intel services who've been caught lying time after time about their spy on everyone programs. They lie by reflex.
VanillaRhapsody
(21,115 posts)How you cannot is beyond my imagination.
mike_c
(36,281 posts)I cannot believe they're telling the truth because I'm paying attention, and frankly, because their lips are moving.
warrior1
(12,325 posts)tabasco
(22,974 posts)Such skilled rhetoric undoubtedly will change many minds.
pampango
(24,692 posts)While he thinks an attack will be a disaster, he does not ignore what is going on.
Only republicans choose their facts to support their policy and ignore or discredit everything that runs counter to their policy.
VanillaRhapsody
(21,115 posts)jakeXT
(10,575 posts)http://www.fair.org/blog/2013/09/01/which-syrian-chemical-attack-account-is-more-credible/
The British intercept fairytales talk of chemical shells
A total of 27 chemical artillery shells were then fired at the suburb in a 14-minute period.
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/425981/Senior-Syrian-military-chiefs-tell-captain-fire-chemicals-or-be-shot
Russia only accused the rebels of using Sarin before
Testimony from victims strongly suggests it was the rebels, not the Syrian government, that used Sarin nerve gas during a recent incident in the revolution-wracked nation, a senior U.N. diplomat said Monday.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/may/6/syrian-rebels-used-sarin-nerve-gas-not-assads-regi/
pampango
(24,692 posts)Mint Press may be right but even they say they have not proven anything conclusively.
Why are chemical artillery shells a fairy tale?
But she said her panel had not yet seen any evidence of Syrian government forces using chemical weapons, according to the BBC, but she added that more investigation was needed.
jakeXT
(10,575 posts)The Russians only cite their UN report from earlier this year and logic (not using chemical weapons when UN inspectors are there)
Either the Syrian army did mix a little deadly Sarin gas into crowd control gas or they used chemical artillery shells ?
Or is it all made up ?
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/425981/Senior-Syrian-military-chiefs-tell-captain-fire-chemicals-or-be-shot
Historic NY
(37,449 posts)http://rt.com/news/damascus-syria-chemical-weapons-082/
Then there is gem circulating out there, I think WND picked it up too.
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=317407355071464&set=vb.180417055328139&type=2&theater
jakeXT
(10,575 posts)backscatter712
(26,355 posts)How do you get Sarin and tear gas mixed up?
Don't they put warning labels on the Sarin containers and warheads? "WARNING! SUPER DEADLY NEUROTOXIN! ONE DROP OF THIS SHIT ON YOUR SKIN WILL KILL YOU!"
Don't they keep the chemical weapons locked up? In a separate place? Because they're fucking WMDs that are not only deadly, but bring a world of shit on the world leaders that order using them?
Either the Syrian Army's dumber than a box of rocks, or someone's lying and made this story up. And I'm betting on the latter.
My bullshit meter is pegged!
bemildred
(90,061 posts)Both stories reek. I'm not sure which reeks more even. The idea Syria is mixing a little sarin in the tear gas or the idea that the Saudis gave them sarin with no precautions. Actually I find that last more believable, the Saudis would not, in fact, give a rip about offing a few martyrs to get an incident. But then, neither would Assad.
And we want to take sides in this?
Igel
(35,309 posts)bluestate10
(10,942 posts)come back to bite him. Maybe it is the desire to be "open", if he wasn't the far Left would pound him. Drawing a red line on Syria using chemical weapons is such a statement, the President should have gotten rock solid agreement on what would be done and who would do it before making a statement.
Jesus Malverde
(10,274 posts)They attack them with tanks, airplanes, and small arms. This tear gas meme must fit some narrative of crowds from the arab spring. For two years now, there have been heavy battles with the rebels recently driven to the margins.
GeorgeGist
(25,321 posts)that an hypothesis is hyped by the OP as fact.
Coyotl
(15,262 posts)muriel_volestrangler
(101,316 posts)and you don't do 'crowd control' then, with everyone sleeping.
Lee-Lee
(6,324 posts)It's been a while since my NBC training, but even well trained armies get their chemical weapons preloaded at arsenals and they just fire them- none of this "mixing". I doubt even the best experts in the US would want to try that, much less whatever level the Syrian army is trained to.