Economic growth and jobless claims improve

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Economic growth looks better than expected

By Steve Benen



In July, we received a preliminary estimate on economic growth in the second quarter -- April, May, and June of this year -- that was clearly underwhelming. Today, that number was revised up in a heartening direction.

The U.S. economy grew at a 2.5% annual rate in the second quarter instead of 1.7% as previously estimated, largely because of an improved trade picture, the Commerce Department said Thursday. Economists polled by MarketWatch had expected gross domestic product to be revised up to 2.3%, mainly because of a smaller U.S. trade gap. Even faster growth in exports and a somewhat slower increase in imports largely accounted for the bump in GDP. Companies also restocked warehouse shelves a bit faster than previously believed.

This is not to say 2.5% GDP is evidence of a robust economic recovery; it's not. But just a few months ago, many believed growth in the second quarter would barely exist at all, so given these low expectations, modest growth looks more encouraging.

Whether the third quarter will improve on this figure is unclear -- most believe it's unlikely -- and with congressional Republicans talking up the possibility of a government shutdown and a debt-ceiling crisis, don't be too surprised if GOP officials serve as a drag on the economy in the coming months.

Also note, though 2.5% is a step in the right direction, the figure would be even better had it not been for reductions in government spending.

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http://maddowblog.msnbc.com/_news/2013/08/29/20245081-economic-growth-looks-better-than-expected

Jobless claims continue to improve

By Steve Benen



The general trend in initial unemployment claims has been quite positive of late, and the newly released figures from the Department of Labor reinforce this.

Signaling a slight slowdown in the pace of layoffs, the number of people who applied for new U.S. unemployment-insurance benefits declined by 6,000 to 331,000 in the week that ended Aug. 24, according to government data released Thursday. Meanwhile, the four-week moving average of initial claims for regular state unemployment-insurance benefits ticked up 750 to 331,250, but remained close to the lowest level since late 2007, near the start of the Great Recession, according to the U.S. Department of Labor.

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In terms of metrics, when jobless claims fall below the 400,000 threshold, it's considered evidence of an improving jobs landscape, and when the number drops below 370,000, it suggests jobs are being created rather quickly. At this point, we've been below 350,000 in 16 of the last 21 weeks.

Above you'll find the chart showing weekly, initial unemployment claims going back to the beginning of 2007. (Remember, unlike the monthly jobs chart, a lower number is good news.) For context, I've added an arrow to show the point at which President Obama's Recovery Act began spending money.

http://maddowblog.msnbc.com/_news/2013/08/29/20244835-jobless-claims-continue-to-improve

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1. Kick! n/t