Fracking Boom Slouching Toward Bust

[eridani]

http://www.commondreams.org/view/2013/08/23-0

Fracking’s second problem is actually a bigger one, though less publicized: its production potential was over-sold. Everyone who pays attention to energy issues has heard that America has a hundred years or more of natural gas thanks to the application of fracking to shale reservoirs, and that the US is on track to out-produce Saudi Arabia now that oil is flowing from fracked fields in North Dakota and Texas. To most, the news at first sounded hopeful and reassuring. Yet as actual production numbers accumulate, it appears that claims made for fracking were simply too good to be true.

It turns out there are only a few “plays” or geological formations in the US from which shale gas is being produced; in virtually all of them, except the Marcellus (in Pennsylvania and West Virginia), production rates are already either in plateau or decline.

Why so soon? A major challenge bedeviling drillers is the high variability within shale plays. Each tight oil or shale gas-bearing geologic formation tends to be characterized by a small core area (usually a few counties) where production is profitable and plentiful, surrounded by a much larger region where per-well production rates are lower to start with and drop fast—often falling 60 percent during the first year. Given the expense of horizontal drilling and fracking, it’s hard to make money in non-core areas unless oil and gas prices are stratospheric. As the “sweet spots” get drilled to capacity, producers are being forced to the fringes, taking on more debt because sales of product don’t cover operating expenses.

With decline rates so high, promised production volumes are turning out to be so much hype. America’s hundred years of natural gas, heralded by President Obama as a national energy game-changer, actually amounts to a mere 24 years by official estimates, even less according to unofficial but well-informed calculations.

[cantbeserious]

1. Energy Hype Is A Wonderful Thing

eom

[Supersedeas]

8. but those natural gas industry PR spots sure are well done

[Champion Jack]

2. Bubble, bubble poisoned water, land and trouble

Around here they are drilling , and then capping the wells.
They only have to show one days production in order to claim the lease rights.

[FarCenter]

3. There will be a severe energy shortage within a decade

The main problem is that the production rate of a fracked well declines much more rapidly than does a conventional gas well. Therefore, the return on the investment in all those holes and all that drill pipe is much worse than first projected. Drilling is already being trimmed back.

Second, shale included in the estimates is often fairly thin and hard to drill. Low productivity and short life means that some fields will not be drilled because the network of pipes to gather gas into the pipeline systems is not economic.

Lastly, some idiots confuse shale that is suitable for fracking with things like the Green River shale, which actually contains kerogen and cannot be fracked. These are the ones who do the calculations that the US has as much energy potential as Saudi Arabia. It is just not true.

[paleotn]

4. While at the same time.....

electricity producers are moving from coal to gas in record numbers as a generation feed stock. That's due in part to current and proposed environmental regs and the relatively cheap prices of NG in the US. However, if major US electricity producers get too hooked on relatively cheap NG (from both in cost per MM BTU and cost of environmental regulation), and shale gas production starts to significantly decline, we would be looking at huge electricity price spikes for consumers in the coming decade. Not to mention the huge waste of capital in building new gas fired plants and retrofitting coal generators to burn gas. Capital that could have been spent on weening ourselves off of fossil energy.

[elehhhhna]

5. gas wells are bring capped until prices increase

the lack of gas production is due to a glut - and at the moment it's uneconomic to produce and transport. This will change.

[bucolic_frolic]

6. Just Go Solar

But don't rely on Photovoltaics, or even solar hot water

Go passive solar. Super insulation in 6" walls, reduced-size windows triple glazed,
massive windows on south side, daily energy storage with water canisters
or trombe rock wall, slate floors absorb sun.

All these are doable, affordable, and are passive - NO maintenance

Add solar hot water, see youtube for videos

The Sun's daily output is free!

[freshwest]

7. Yup, all of that. Especially the passive solar. Fracking, don't let the door hit you in the ass. Go!

[Coyotl]

9. One-third of the gas from the Bakken is being burned in the atmosphere for quick profit

from the oil. How much harm is caused by burning so much fossil fuel w/o bothering to extract any energy at all? Global warming and health of the local population?

[marions ghost]

10. No Frickin Frackin Blues

Protest song against gas corporations unsustainable practice of HYDRAULIC FRACTURING or fracking. In states such as Wyoming and Pennsylvania, fire does indeed come out of water faucets after fracking has come to town.

http://www.broadjam.com/player/player.php?play_file=82129_534589